Area Forecast Discussion
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476
FXUS64 KLUB 202025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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