Area Forecast Discussion
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679
FXUS64 KLUB 292035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ESE TO ACROSS SRN CANADA/THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTN...HAS SENT DOWN A DRY AND BREEZY COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
THE ERN EDGE HAVING CLEARED THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LAST HR OR
SO. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 MB PER 3 HRS HAVE RESULTED IN
N-NE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
SPEEDS/ AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WERE NOTED
ACROSS THE NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY NWRN SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A
HIGHER ELEVATION...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS...COURTESY OF AN 850 MB JET MAX THERE. AS SUCH...IT IS NO
WONDER SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING/BRIEFLY EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS. WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY ATTM AS IT IS NOT WIDE-SPREAD. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED
TO 9SM EARLIER THIS AFTN AT KLBB /HAS SINCE COME BACK UP TO 10SM/
DUE TO OCCASIONAL PATCHY BLDU...WHICH IS STILL BEING REPORTED VIA
THE KLBB METAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS
ALSO OCCURRING NEAR OPEN FIELDS. TEMPS ARE APPROX 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
FROM 24 HRS AGO DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. AS THE SFC RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SETTLES NEAR THE FA AOA SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN E-NE WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /AND AT TIMES VARIABLE/
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. HOWEVER A CLOSED UA LOW APPROX 680 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA OF
CALI...HAS BEGUN TO STREAM HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
WRN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LOWER A BIT
AND THICKEN. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER WX FEATURE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN IS ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...AS ABOVE NORM TEMPS HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 10-25 PERCENT...AND WIND SPEEDS EQUATING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ONLY ADDS TO THE CONCERN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMORROW...AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME WILL PERSIST LEADING TO PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 0.55-0.85
INCH RANGE /WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLANS/.
FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COMMENCED TO BACK FROM THE NW TO THE WSW THANKS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN PACIFIC CLOSED UA LOW THAT WILL BE
PROPAGATING EWRD TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI. HENCE...THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE NEARBY INFLUENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE /AND CLOUDINESS/ WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. A NEARBY SFC
LOW PROMOTING A PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTN WILL CAUSE S-SE SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY LOW /20-35 PERCENT/
BUT THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH WHERE THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS MAY OCCUR.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NM THUS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NM TOMORROW AFTN.
RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO NOT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER ARRIVES CENTERED LATE TUESDAY WITH A
LOW LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PACKAGE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
STEERING MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BULK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE SUGGEST BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEVELOP. BUT A
STEALTHY LITTLE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN JUAQUIN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEER A BIT OF ENERGY MORE DIRECTED OUR WAY BY
TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS OPEN WHILE SWINGING
THROUGH...AS SUCH GENERALLY THESE WE DOWNPLAY...BUT ALSO JUST
ENOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY TO MORE OR LESS RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDER CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY.
AND WE STILL ARE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WRF/NAM THOUGH MINIMAL IN THE GFS...OPTED TO RETAIN SOME
CONSIDERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT GOOD AGREEMENT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL APPEAR DRY BREEZY AND VERY WARM.
ONLY SMALL CHANGES NEEDED THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
DEVELOP AS INDICATED BELOW.

ARRIVAL TIME OF NEXT MASS OF COLDER AIR APPEARS A LITTLE EARLIER
FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS. WE MAINTAINED A SOMEWHAT BLENDED SOLUTION
TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF A LATER ARRIVAL...WHICH
LETS US BLEND BETTER WITH NORTH-SOUTH NEIGHBORS AS WELL. AND THIS
FRONT NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE NEXT
SATURDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER BREEZY/LOW END WINDY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN NRLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH UP TO 40 MPH GUSTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE FALLEN TO 10-25 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK AND A
FEW LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK TICKING OFF RED FLAG MINUTES /ONLY A
FEW HAVE SURPASSED THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA/. DUE TO ONLY A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS SURPASSING THE TIME CRITERIA...AND WIND SPEEDS HAVING
HAD DECLINED JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...WILL CAUSE HOLDING
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WHICH IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY SINCE A WHEAT FIELD CAUGHT ON
FIRE ALONG THE CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTY LINE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HOT SPOT SIGNATURE HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.

TOMORROW...A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A BIT OF A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 20-FOOT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /70S/
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AS SUCH HUMIDITIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HENCE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN EXIST. /29

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL MAY OFFER NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
OR APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
REFORMS...AND MIXING DEEPENS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS...BUT WE HAVE EDGED GRID
WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PLAYING THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR. /05
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05

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