Area Forecast Discussion
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472
FXUS64 KLUB 211746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. KCDS COULD
ALSO SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A FRONT EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH...AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
EXCURSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT KCDS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO KCDS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...KLBB WILL LIKELY SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD EARLY MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LIFT CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND OR AFTER 12Z
AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THE MOISTURE WAS STILL BE ACTED UPON WHAT REMAINS OF
ODILE AND IT WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY TROPICAL
RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WHERE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AROUND
A SMALL CIRCULATION /CENTERED BETWEEN CARLSBAD AND ENICE NM/.
FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
MORE SCATTERED BUT WAS STILL LOCALLY HEAVY. THANKFULLY...SO FAR
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES LOCALLY HAVE BEEN SMALL AND MOVING ENOUGH
TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HOWEVER...BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK INCH
OR TWO AND THIS COULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THEY HAVE HAD THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ACTIVITY AND SHOULD IT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OR SLOW...FUTURE
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
VALID TODAY.

WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL WANING TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL
RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH INSOLATION RESULTS IN A UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE THEY ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SUN.
FURTHER ENHANCING THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EDGE IN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME /AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY/ TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE SATURATED SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. A DECISION ON THIS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THOSE HOPING FOR A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAINS...IT DOES APPEAR
DRIER AIR MAY BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...THOUGH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY UNTIL A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH
COMBINED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING
TO AT LEAST MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE TSRA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR NOW WITH A REDUCTION TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS
SHOULD VARY BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  72  56  78  57 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         58  73  57  78  58 /  40  40  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  72  58  78  59 /  40  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  73  58  78  59 /  50  50  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       62  72  59  78  62 /  40  50  40  20  10
DENVER CITY   64  75  58  79  59 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  75  59  79  60 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  82  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
SPUR          64  77  59  81  61 /  30  30  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  61  83  62 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

23/07/23

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