Area Forecast Discussion
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872
FXUS64 KLUB 122344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
BOTH SITES...BEFORE CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CRITERIA LATER
THIS EVENING AT KCDS. KLBB ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. STILL EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY AT KLBB...BEFORE POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
VEER SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  65  52  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         45  64  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  64  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  64  55  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  64  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  64  56  76  60 /  50  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  64  57  77  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     48  67  57  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          49  66  57  79  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  59  81  66 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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