Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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256
FXUS64 KLUB 050300 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
900 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AS A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUES. REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW MOVING SE ACROSS NE NM AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING WAVE DROPPING
SEWD OUT OF COLORADO. BUT WE DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING. WE WILL BEGIN TO TRIM BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM WEST TO EAST SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIFT PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INCREASED POPS FURTHER THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH BANDS OF SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TWEAKED
WORDING IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONSISTENT
SNOWFALL IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ON THE CAPROCK DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE BANDS TO
MOVE THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER
MOISTENING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE CAPROCK WITH AN INCH TO UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL THUS CONTINUE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL
SITES BY MID-LATE EVENING LEADING TO GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE LOW END OF THE VFR
SPECTRUM...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE THESE FALL BACK TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM IFR NEARER THE MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW AT KCDS TO VFR AT KPVW...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FLUCTUATING BASED ON WHERE HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW RESIDE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BACKING
AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH
UNFOLD. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE WELL WITH NWP
AND THIS HELPS SOMEWHAT WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
AS WELL. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO WANE...OR AT
LEAST BECOME MORE SHOWERY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER SRN AZ TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL VARY A FAIR BIT GIVEN THE PATH OF
INDIVIDUAL BANDS/SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE EXPECTATIONS OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL TO NEAR 2 INCHES. AS NORMAL...HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN
LOCALIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE--AS IS LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO HELP EASE TRAVEL CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL ACT TO MAINLY
CRIMP THE WARMUP LEADING TO A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING...FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY BUT
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  37  17  52 /  30   0   0   0
TULIA         15  36  18  50 /  40   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  36  18  50 /  40   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     18  36  19  50 /  50   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       18  36  19  50 /  50   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  37  20  49 /  50   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  36  20  49 /  40   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  36  20  53 /  60   0   0   0
SPUR          19  36  20  49 /  70   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  36  20  49 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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