Area Forecast Discussion
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688
FXUS64 KLUB 191748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS IN AT THE TERMINALS TODAY
THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE SCATTERED THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE MEANING A CONTINUED RISK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. CIGS
AT KCDS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED TO VFR AND THEY MAY REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR IFR
LATE TONIGHT. KLBB WAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE AT KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWER CHANCES AT
KCDS. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS ATTM. FUTURE AMENDMENTS FOR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES AND SHOWER/STORMS ARE A GOOD BET OVER THE COMING
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  63  79  61 /  80  40  30  40  30
TULIA         65  73  65  82  62 /  80  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  65  80  62 /  80  60  50  40  30
LEVELLAND     65  75  65  75  63 /  80  50  50  50  30
LUBBOCK       65  75  65  77  63 /  80  60  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  66  75  63 /  80  60  40  50  30
BROWNFIELD    66  76  66  75  64 /  80  60  50  60  30
CHILDRESS     69  79  67  86  65 /  90  70  40  30  30
SPUR          67  78  67  82  64 /  90  70  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     68  83  69  84  66 /  90  70  50  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07/23

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