Area Forecast Discussion
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009
FXUS64 KLUB 191142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LOW CIGS AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL. AT THE
MOMENT...LOW CLOUDS WERE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL BUT WERE
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TERMINAL. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO IN THE TAF FOR MVFR CIGS. A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER TOP THE
RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...WE WILL SEE HEIGHT FALLS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AFTER
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES BEFORE THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GREATLY IMPROVE THE CONVECTION CHANCES FOR US. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEALTHY INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITHIN THIS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 120-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INITIAL
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOWARDS THE
DIMINISHING STAGE OF CONVECTION...MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WITH 850MB WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME FLOW IN THE COLUMN BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH...CHANCES OF SEVERE REMAIN LOW.

LOW STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER FOR TODAY.

LONG TERM...
THERE ARE FEW CONCERNS THIS FORECAST AS SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A 6000-ISH METER RIDGE AT THE 500 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BUILD
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS STILL THE GENERAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS IN
GOING FORECAST REQUIRING LITTLE CHANGE. A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH
INCLUDE A WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER...PULLING A BIT MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH WESTERN ZONES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE ADDED LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WESTERN BORDER
AREA AS UPPER HEIGHTS NOT YET COMPLETELY DISMISSIVE OF STORM
CHANCES THOUGH FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS SAME
SHORTWAVE DUO STILL APPEARS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSOURI VALLEY MORE PER THE ECMWF THAN GFS...DRAGGING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD QUASH
THUNDER CHANCES OUR AREA...BUT WE SUSPECT THERE MAY BE NEARER
ACTIVITY THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS. ANYWAY...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  66  94  68  95 /  10  40  10  20  10
TULIA         88  67  95  70  96 /  10  30  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     88  66  94  70  96 /  10  30   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  68  95  71  98 /  10  30  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       91  70  95  71  97 /  10  30   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   93  68  96  70  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    92  68  96  72  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     89  70  98  76 100 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          91  70  97  73  99 /  10  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  72  98  76 100 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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