Area Forecast Discussion
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297
FXUS64 KLUB 011147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS BETWEEN ABOUT 23 UTC
AND 03 UTC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING....ARRIVING AT BOTH TERMINALS
AFTER 12 UTC THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WED MORNING SHOWS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
IN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH AN ULJ
ROTATING AROUND IT/S BASE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND OUT INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD FROM
WRN KS...ACROSS THE CAPROCK...AND ON INTO SE NM. AN DRY AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS NM BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WTX TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND A DRYLINE SHOULD FORM UP....RUNNING FROM NEAR
CHILDRESS TO NEAR POST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLD T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING JET. THE QPF
SIGNAL IS BETTER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA THOUGH AND WE
THINK 15-20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 2K J/KG OR SO ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPEAKING OF SURFACE
HEATING...WE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE...AND OCT 1 WILL PROBABLY
THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DIP OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND LIKELY
ENTER OUR NRN COUNTIES BY 6 AM OR SO. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM RETREATING VERY FAR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WE HAVE TAKEN LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING CLEARING
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH FOLLOWED BY A
1030MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN EVEN DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO COME BITTER EARLY OCTOBER MORNINGS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE NOW
FORECAST BY MOS GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME POCKETS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COOLER SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE DROP INTO THE 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF DRAGS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS WANTS NO PART OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCLEAR REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  50  71  41  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
TULIA         86  54  74  44  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  53  75  45  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  52  75  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  55  76  46  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  54  79  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  54  78  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  63  79  49  76 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          90  62  81  50  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  69  84  52  77 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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