Area Forecast Discussion
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854
FXUS64 KLUB 181951
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPOSED OF UA TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME THAT ENCOMPASSED
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE
S-SE ON THE CAPROCK...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/NE WINDS OCCURRING OFF
THE CAPROCK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...SETTING UP AN OBVIOUS TEMP GRADIENT OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES TO LOWER-MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL
EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEW
MEXICO. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN STORMS NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD MITIGATE THIS OCCURRENCE FROM
COMING TO PASS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE CONTINUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TOMORROW
AFTN...THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND PROMOTE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES...HENCE
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENDURE AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST NEW MEXICO
MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR WEST AND NW SOUTH PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW IS A TAD BETTER AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER IN THE LONGTERM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM AND
MOVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG
A LEE TROF. DRY AIR AND ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT FOR NOW I SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST POPS THAT ARE IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH NEXT WEEK WE
CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH JUST A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF...WHO HAS MAX HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT 600DM...AND KEEPS HEIGHTS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 594 TO 597DM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NICE AND TOASTY
AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BEING EASILY OBTAINABLE.
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE WARMER PUSHING INTO THE LOW 100S AT
TIMES. THE RECENT RAINS WILL HELP ADD A SAUNA EFFECT OUT EAST AS
WELL. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST IS A WEAK FRONT THAT IS BROUGHT SOUTHWARD
BY BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BY MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DRAPE
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS ARE
THAT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED CLOSER OVERHEAD THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FARTHER WEST...THAT WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE FA. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
BE HARD TO COME BY. THIS WOULD ALSO COOL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL KEEP US IN THE 90S. I HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS BUT KEEP THEM
BELOW MENTION DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A LOW
SKIRTS THE CA/US BORDER. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD AND OPEN UP A CHANCE FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
POSSIBLE A SHOT AT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  67  94  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  93  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  88  69  94  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  71  96  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  70  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  72  97  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  92  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  90  71  97  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  91  72  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  73  98  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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