Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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781
FXUS64 KLUB 270511
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1111 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE PASSING EARLY...AND A WEAKENING
IMPULSE EDGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND A
RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
NARROW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...PASSING TO THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING IMPULSE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THOUGH STILL WITH ONLY MODEST SPEEDS. VFR CONTINUING.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY
SPLITTING OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION
EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO`S AND ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH OLD MEXICO. BEFORE DOING SO
THOUGH...PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE
PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME THE COLD AIR DOES NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
EVENT WOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5"
TO AN 1.00" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST T.SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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