Area Forecast Discussion
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302
FXUS64 KLUB 221739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTN FCST A BIT UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST HAS LOST A LOT OF DEFINITION...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS SERN NM TO WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE EAST IS ERODING THE LOW CLOUD DECK. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THAT DRY AIR BALANCES WITH THE WEST
GROUND UP ON THE CAPROCK AND WHETHER CONVECTIVE PROCESS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING NEUTRALIZE THE DROPS IN SFC DEW POINTS OR IF WET
GROUND CONTRIBUTES TO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS AND
SHOWER AND/OR THUNDER ACTIVITY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD OFF
WITH ANY FCST ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS HAVE ERODED OR LIFTED AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. DESPITE THIS DRIER
AIR...EXPECT CIGS TO CREEP BACK EWD OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL...AND
IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR AND SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE MIGHT
END UP SEEING A THREAT FOR FOG AND/OR VERY LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE MORE MODERATE APPROACH OF
THE PREVIOUS TAF FCST. AS FOR PRECIP...UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS
LOST A LOT OF ITS DEFINITION AND AM ALSO UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTN WITH EXTRA INSOLATION AS DRY
LOW LEVEL WILL LIMIT THAT FACTOR. STILL COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
TSRA TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD KLBB THIS AFTN WITH KCDS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
BOTH TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AT KLBB SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR
WITH PERHAPS TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
BRUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF KLBB AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS WANED. THUS WILL DROP THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND
SUNDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF SUBTLE FORCING FROM ODILE/S LEFTOVER ENERGY AS WELL
AS HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE CAPROCK.
THIS REDUCTION IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE RESULT OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OFF INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WHILE REMAINING IN THE 60S WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. WHILE AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINS FROM MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF FLOODING
CONCERNS...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DECREASE IN FORCING WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

STEERING FLOW VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
PUSH ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST AND ULTIMATELY ALLOW IT
TO DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A CUT OFF LOW SCOOTING UNDER A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS.  OUR FLOW WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE HIGH
WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM BAJA TO MANITOBA AND BEYOND BY THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST NEXT WEEKEND.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORMS ONCE AGAIN
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE SOCAL LOW.  ALL IN
ALL...A PRETTY MESSY AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE.

OUR PATTERN IS QUITE WEAKLY FORCED INITIALLY THUS MAKING IT HARD TO
NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE EACH DAY.  AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS NWP
DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH.  THE THETA-E RIDGE IS THE BEST
INDICATOR OF WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST. THETA-E
FIELDS APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES THOUGH THE
MORPHOLOGY CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. ALL IN ALL...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A FAIR BIT ON POPS WED AND THU. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND
TREND ACCORDINGLY THOUGH AM HESITANT TO DRY THINGS OUT AS MUCH AS
NWP SUGGEST GIVEN THE INTER- RUN INCONSISTENCY. AFTER THINGS DRY
OUT..NEXT SHOT OF STORMS MAY COME INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY DEVELOP THOUGH THE GFS AND ECM DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR US ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  57  81  56  81 /  50  40  10  20  30
TULIA         78  57  82  58  83 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     77  59  80  59  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     77  59  80  59  81 /  40  30  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       77  61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   79  60  81  59  81 /  50  30  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    79  59  80  59  82 /  50  30  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     82  61  86  63  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
SPUR          81  60  84  61  84 /  20  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     84  63  87  63  86 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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