Area Forecast Discussion
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934
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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