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064
FXUS64 KLUB 282131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM REMAINS
OVERDONE ON THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING DIRECTLY NEAR THE NON-EXISTENT
SNOWPACK WHICH IN REALITY IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT. WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGE ENGULFS THE REGION.
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN AHEAD STILL FAVORS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE AND NEW
YEARS EVE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP...BEFORE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPROVES LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STILL
UNDEVELOPED UPPER LOW. THE FACT THIS TROUGH IS JUST IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON IMPLIES
THE WINDOW REMAINS WIDE OPEN FOR DEPARTURES TO THE LATE WEEK
FORECAST. AS THIS TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
TUESDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE 1055 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE DISLODGED
SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY NEW YEARS DAY...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER
THAN ITS PROGGED 1060 MB (!) PEAK INTENSITY ON TUE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO AS
SOON AS TUE MORNING MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE SUB-CLOUD MOISTURE
DEFICITS ARE LOWER THAN FARTHER EAST. LIFT FROM STEADY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND E-NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THIS
LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT BY LATE TUE INTO WED MID AND UPPER SATURATION
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WINDS BACK MORE SWLY DOWNSTREAM OF A
BURGEONING UPPER CYCLONE IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PROCESS COULD
EASILY ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER OPPORTUNITIES CULMINATING WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT ASCENT OVERALL APPEARS QUITE
SUBDUED SO WINTRY ACCUMS INCLUDING FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR MINOR
AT THIS TIME.

AS TEMPORARY S/W RIDGING UNFOLDS OVERHEAD NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT...A
WARM NOSE IS SHOWN TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION IN THE 300-305K
LAYER. THIS STOUT WARM NOSE STILL LOOKS TO DEEPEN AND QUICKLY
OVERWHELM MUCH OF THE LOWER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF ALL WINTRY
PRECIP BY LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI EVEN AS HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPER
ASCENT UNFOLD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
REASONABLY CLUSTERED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS IS LESS EAGER TO FILL/DECAY THE
LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECM. THIS RAISES CONCERN ABOUT THE
DURATION OF ENHANCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP AMOUNTS. BUT SINCE
THIS LOW HAS YET TO EVEN DEVELOP...WE SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
SERIOUS ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE WEEK POPS WHICH STILL MATCH WELL WITH
CURRENT MOS DATA.

MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED LOWER TUE AND WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
FAVORING CLOSE TO MOS GIVEN ABUNDANT STRATUS. AN EASY OVERTURNING
OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR STILL APPEARS FEASIBLE BY THU...BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONG WARMING PROGGED BY MOS GIVEN THICK CLOUDS.
OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE COOLER GFS AND ECM RAW NUMBERS FOR NOW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/93
397
FXUS64 KLUB 281728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A VERY FINE HAZE ACROSS THE CITY OF LUBBOCK BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...AS HINTED
AT BY SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS. NO DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION ATTM. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES /14-18 KTS/.
WINDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE
VEERING FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH WAS ALMOST OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT CONTINUES ITS ESEWRD PROGRESSION. IT WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS UA DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED NE FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE FAR LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING. CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATING ALL BUT A SLIVER OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...HAS LED TO
TEMPS CRATERING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIONA KEEPS FLIRTING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS...BUT DUE TO A LIGHT SW SFC WIND THE TEMP
MANAGES TO REMAIN AOA 11 DEGREES. WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 2-4 DEGREES...CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES...
ESPECIALLY SINCE A THIN LAYER OF HAZE CAN BE SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE CAM. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR
HINT AT FOG DEVELOPING MORE SO ACROSS THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SCOURING OUT BY MID-MORNING. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE
LIGHT SW WIND COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH
WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR UNTIL
MID-MORNING...WHEN SPEEDS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS
VIS IS PROGGED TO FALL TO/BELOW 1 MILE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SW WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...COURTESY OF A
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED NEARBY SFC LOW. WITH STREETS NOT BEING PLAGUED BY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL THEREFORE MANAGE
TO WARMUP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S /OR SOME 6-12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/. TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
WILL PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING SFC WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL AID TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NW TO UPPER 20S SE EXPECTED. BIG CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON SO LOOK TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON COLD AIR AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVING LATER THAT NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING MOS FOR LOWS AND
UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR HIGHS.

IN GENERAL...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THAT IN ITSELF IS ENOUGH TO CONSIDER POPS EACH DAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A DRY TO VERY DRY MID LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. APPEARS ATTM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN MOISTENING THE MID LEVELS SOME. PROFILE SEEMS
TO FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS A CLOSED LOW
MOVES THROUGH ACROSS SRN CALIF. WITH THIS REGIME WILL LOSE THE
LIFT AND SEE MID LEVELS DRY AGAIN. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL TRIM
POPS BACK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...EXPECT POPS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. 00Z
MODEL RUN TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD BRING THE PEAK POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP
PHASE AT THAT TIME LIKELY A PROBLEM WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A RAIN AND SNOW
MENTION BASED LARGELY UPON SFC TEMPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  19  45  14  23 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         46  21  45  15  24 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  23  48  16  25 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  26  51  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  26  50  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   44  26  51  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  26  52  20  29 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  24  48  21  28 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          49  26  53  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  29  55  24  32 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
854
FXUS64 KLUB 281120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A VERY FINE HAZE ACROSS THE CITY OF LUBBOCK BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...AS HINTED
AT BY SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS. NO DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION ATTM. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES /14-18 KTS/.
WINDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE
VEERING FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH WAS ALMOST OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT CONTINUES ITS ESEWRD PROGRESSION. IT WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS UA DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED NE FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE FAR LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING. CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATING ALL BUT A SLIVER OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...HAS LED TO
TEMPS CRATERING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIONA KEEPS FLIRTING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS...BUT DUE TO A LIGHT SW SFC WIND THE TEMP
MANAGES TO REMAIN AOA 11 DEGREES. WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 2-4 DEGREES...CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES...
ESPECIALLY SINCE A THIN LAYER OF HAZE CAN BE SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE CAM. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR
HINT AT FOG DEVELOPING MORE SO ACROSS THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SCOURING OUT BY MID-MORNING. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE
LIGHT SW WIND COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH
WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR UNTIL
MID-MORNING...WHEN SPEEDS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS
VIS IS PROGGED TO FALL TO/BELOW 1 MILE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SW WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...COURTESY OF A
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED NEARBY SFC LOW. WITH STREETS NOT BEING PLAUGED BY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL THEREFORE MANAGE
TO WARMUP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S /OR SOME 6-12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/. TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
WILL PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING SFC WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL AID TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NW TO UPPER 20S SE EXPECTED. BIG CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON SO LOOK TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON COLD AIR AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVING LATER THAT NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING MOS FOR LOWS AND
UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR HIGHS.

IN GENERAL...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THAT IN ITSELF IS ENOUGH TO CONSIDER POPS EACH DAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A DRY TO VERY DRY MID LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. APPEARS ATTM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN MOISTENING THE MID LEVELS SOME. PROFILE SEEMS
TO FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS A CLOSED LOW
MOVES THROUGH ACROSS SRN CALIF. WITH THIS REGIME WILL LOSE THE
LIFT AND SEE MID LEVELS DRY AGAIN. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL TRIM
POPS BACK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...EXPECT POPS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. 00Z
MODEL RUN TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD BRING THE PEAK POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP
PHASE AT THAT TIME LIKELY A PROBLEM WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A RAIN AND SNOW
MENTION BASED LARGELY UPON SFC TEMPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  19  45  14  23 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         46  21  45  15  24 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  23  48  16  25 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  26  51  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  26  50  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   44  26  51  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  26  52  20  29 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  24  48  21  28 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          49  26  53  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  29  55  24  32 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
030
FXUS64 KLUB 280541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CRATER. WINDS EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER TOWARD THE
MORNING WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER SOME WARMING. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO NOTED ON 11-3.9 IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK THOUGH
EVOLUTION OF THE FOG REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND BEARS WATCHING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST HAS EVOLVED TO BE A BIT MORE TRICKY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INVOF PVW/LBB THOUGH
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN 4-6 DEGREES APART WITH SLOWLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS TYPICALLY SUGGEST FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ON COOL NIGHTS. TO THE SOUTH OF
KLBB...T/TD SPREADS HAVE CONVERGED TO NEAR 0 CLOSER TO WHERE SNOW
WAS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY MORNING. AND AREA WEBCAMS SEEM TO
SUGGEST A VERY THIN LAYER SETTING UP PERHAPS ATOP VERY LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE CITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING VFR THOUGH
THERE IS PERHAPS A 10 PCT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR AT BOTH LBB AND PVW.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY RAPIDLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC AIR BLAST.
SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL BE IN VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

LONG TERM...
VERY INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD 1058 MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY...BUT REALLY COLD AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. TEMPS EARLY TUE
EXPECTED IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

ONCE COLD DOME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...DECENT WSW FLOW ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COLD AIR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY RUN THE GAMUT NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNLESS
ATMOSPHERE CAN GENERATE SNOW IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR
-10C. THEN AS COLUMN BECOMES WARMER DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY. AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION BETWEEN ECM AND GFS...SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS NEXT WEEK...
BUT LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WITH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY APPROACHING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. STAY TUNED! JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        10  46  20  41  14 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         13  46  22  42  15 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     17  48  24  47  16 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     21  46  27  50  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       22  47  27  49  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   22  45  27  51  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  45  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     22  49  25  46  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  48  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  49  29  54  23 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
518
FXUS64 KLUB 280404
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SMALL UPDATE TO THE GRIDS ADDING MENTION OF PATCHY FOG GENERALLY
FROM LUBBOCK SOUTHWESTWARD WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
INDICATED BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACKING OVERNIGHT THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. MODESTLY BREEZY CONNECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY RAPIDLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC AIR BLAST.
SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL BE IN VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

LONG TERM...
VERY INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD 1058 MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY...BUT REALLY COLD AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. TEMPS EARLY TUE
EXPECTED IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

ONCE COLD DOME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...DECENT WSW FLOW ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COLD AIR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY RUN THE GAMUT NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNLESS
ATMOSPHERE CAN GENERATE SNOW IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR
-10C. THEN AS COLUMN BECOMES WARMER DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY. AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION BETWEEN ECM AND GFS...SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS NEXT WEEK...
BUT LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WITH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY APPROACHING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. STAY TUNED! JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  46  20  41  14 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         17  46  22  42  15 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     19  48  24  47  16 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     21  46  27  50  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       21  47  27  49  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   23  45  27  51  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    23  45  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     20  49  25  46  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  48  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  49  29  54  23 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/26
673
FXUS64 KLUB 272329
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
529 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACKING OVERNIGHT THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. MODESTLY BREEZY CONNECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY RAPIDLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC AIR BLAST.
SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL BE IN VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

LONG TERM...
VERY INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD 1058 MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY...BUT REALLY COLD AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. TEMPS EARLY TUE
EXPECTED IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

ONCE COLD DOME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...DECENT WSW FLOW ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COLD AIR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY RUN THE GAMUT NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNLESS
ATMOSPHERE CAN GENERATE SNOW IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR
-10C. THEN AS COLUMN BECOMES WARMER DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY. AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION BETWEEN ECM AND GFS...SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS NEXT WEEK...
BUT LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WITH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY APPROACHING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. STAY TUNED! JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  15  46  20  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  17  46  22  42 /  60   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  19  48  24  47 /  80   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  21  46  27  50 /  80   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       34  21  47  27  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  23  45  27  51 /  80   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  23  45  27  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  20  49  25  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  25  48  27  52 /  60   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  26  49  29  54 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
450
FXUS64 KLUB 272041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
241 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY RAPIDLY THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC AIR BLAST.
SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL BE IN VERY SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
VERY INTERESTING AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD 1058 MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY...BUT REALLY COLD AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. TEMPS EARLY TUE
EXPECTED IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

ONCE COLD DOME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED...DECENT WSW FLOW ALOFT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COLD AIR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY RUN THE GAMUT NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT...SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW UNLESS
ATMOSPHERE CAN GENERATE SNOW IN NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR
-10C. THEN AS COLUMN BECOMES WARMER DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY. AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION BETWEEN ECM AND GFS...SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS NEXT WEEK...
BUT LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WITH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY APPROACHING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. STAY TUNED! JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  46  20  41  14 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         17  46  22  42  15 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     19  48  24  47  16 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     21  46  27  50  18 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       21  47  27  49  19 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   23  45  27  51  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    23  45  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     20  49  25  46  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  48  27  52  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  49  29  54  23 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/06
131
FXUS64 KLUB 271727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP
OF THE HOUR WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION MOSTLY CEASED. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
COMPLETELY WANES AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING
ONLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING UP TO THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE PERFORMED POOR DUE TO AN OVER-RELIANCE IN
INDICATING A VERY GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE AS 09Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WINTRY PRECIP IS COURTESY OF
ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN UA TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ATTM AND
IS LIKELY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN THERE...THOUGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WERE NOTED MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...COINCIDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THUS FAR...SNOWFALL HAS ONLY
COLLECTED ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN ROADWAYS ARE STILL A BIT TOO WARM.
HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...WE COULD SEE A
SOME COLLECT ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL APPEARS ADEQUATE ATTM. VIS HAS GONE UP AND DOWN AT
KLBB AND KPVW /DOWN TO 1 AND 2 1/2 MILES RESPECTIVELY AT ONE
POINT/ ...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL THE WINTRY PRECIP. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
AS IT WILL SHIFT ESE TO ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN /AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES/ BY THE AFTN.
WANING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BY EARLY-MID MORNING WILL
LEAD TO THE END OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS. DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONT THAT WILL USHER THAT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH FCST AREA MONDAY BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING UNTIL
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AN EXPECTED NARROW DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY
MID LEVELS. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SNOW CHANCES THAT PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMS
TO HAVE WIDENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT LEAVES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT UNKNOWNS INTO FRIDAY
THAT WOULD AFFECT BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...DEPENDING MOSTLY ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PHASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE MID LEVEL
TEMPS TO OR ABOVE THE FREEZING. CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE ATTM WITH THE EVENT STILL A WAYS OUT...IE SNOW AND RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  15  47  22  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  17  47  23  45 /  60   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  19  49  25  48 /  80   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  21  50  28  50 /  80   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       34  21  49  28  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  22  50  28  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  25  49  29  53 /  60   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  26  50  31  55 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

01
109
FXUS64 KLUB 271331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT...THUS A
RESURGENCE TO THE ONGOING SCATTERED SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER
PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
POPS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS TREND PERSISTS INTO LATE MORNING /SINCE IT
EXPIRES AT 15Z/...BUT WILL LET THE LATER SHIFT SEE IF THAT IS
INDEED WARRANTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VIS AND CLOUD DECKS KEEP BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
CRITERIA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. CURRENT
READINGS ARE VFR VIS DUE TO SNOW AT KLBB...MVFR VIS AT KPVW AND
-SN IS NOT AFFECTED KCDS AT THIS TIME THUS VFR VIS PREVAILED
/THOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT A REPRIEVE AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY/. VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB WHILE IFR DECKS
WERE OCCURRING AT KPVW. THESE CHANGES IN CRITERIA ARE LIKELY DUE
TO INTERMITTENT PASSES OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...OR LACK THEREOF WHEN IT COMES TO KCDS. THIS CATEGORY BOUNCING
AROUND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE -SN COMMENCE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING UP TO THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE PERFORMED POOR DUE TO AN OVER-RELIANCE IN
INDICATING A VERY GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE AS 09Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WINTRY PRECIP IS COURTESY OF
ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN UA TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ATTM AND
IS LIKELY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN THERE...THOUGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WERE NOTED MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...COINCIDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THUS FAR...SNOWFALL HAS ONLY
COLLECTED ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN ROADWAYS ARE STILL A BIT TOO WARM.
HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...WE COULD SEE A
SOME COLLECT ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL APPEARS ADEQUATE ATTM. VIS HAS GONE UP AND DOWN AT
KLBB AND KPVW /DOWN TO 1 AND 2 1/2 MILES RESPECTIVELY AT ONE
POINT/ ...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL THE WINTRY PRECIP. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
AS IT WILL SHIFT ESE TO ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN /AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES/ BY THE AFTN.
WANING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BY EARLY-MID MORNING WILL
LEAD TO THE END OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS. DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONT THAT WILL USHER THAT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH FCST AREA MONDAY BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING UNTIL
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AN EXPECTED NARROW DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY
MID LEVELS. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SNOW CHANCES THAT PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMS
TO HAVE WIDENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT LEAVES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT UNKNOWNS INTO FRIDAY
THAT WOULD AFFECT BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...DEPENDING MOSTLY ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PHASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE MID LEVEL
TEMPS TO OR ABOVE THE FREEZING. CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE ATTM WITH THE EVENT STILL A WAYS OUT...IE SNOW AND RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  15  47  22  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  17  47  23  45 /  60   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  19  49  25  48 /  80   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  21  50  28  50 /  80   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  21  49  28  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  22  50  28  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  25  49  29  53 /  60   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  26  50  31  55 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

29
091
FXUS64 KLUB 271121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VIS AND CLOUD DECKS KEEP BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
CRITERIA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. CURRENT
READINGS ARE VFR VIS DUE TO SNOW AT KLBB...MVFR VIS AT KPVW AND
-SN IS NOT AFFECTED KCDS AT THIS TIME THUS VFR VIS PREVAILED
/THOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT A REPRIEVE AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY/. VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB WHILE IFR DECKS
WERE OCCURRING AT KPVW. THESE CHANGES IN CRITERIA ARE LIKELY DUE
TO INTERMITTENT PASSES OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...OR LACK THEREOF WHEN IT COMES TO KCDS. THIS CATEGORY BOUNCING
AROUND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE -SN COMMENCE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING UP TO THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE PERFORMED POOR DUE TO AN OVER-RELIANCE IN
INDICATING A VERY GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE AS 09Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WINTRY PRECIP IS COURTESY OF
ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN UA TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ATTM AND
IS LIKELY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN THERE...THOUGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WERE NOTED MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...COINCIDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THUS FAR...SNOWFALL HAS ONLY
COLLECTED ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN ROADWAYS ARE STILL A BIT TOO WARM.
HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...WE COULD SEE A
SOME COLLECT ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL APPEARS ADEQUATE ATTM. VIS HAS GONE UP AND DOWN AT
KLBB AND KPVW /DOWN TO 1 AND 2 1/2 MILES RESPECTIVELY AT ONE
POINT/ ...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL THE WINTRY PRECIP. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
AS IT WILL SHIFT ESE TO ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN /AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES/ BY THE AFTN.
WANING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BY EARLY-MID MORNING WILL
LEAD TO THE END OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS. DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONT THAT WILL USHER THAT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH FCST AREA MONDAY BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING UNTIL
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AN EXPECTED NARROW DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY
MID LEVELS. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SNOW CHANCES THAT PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMS
TO HAVE WIDENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT LEAVES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT UNKNOWNS INTO FRIDAY
THAT WOULD AFFECT BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...DEPENDING MOSTLY ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PHASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE MID LEVEL
TEMPS TO OR ABOVE THE FREEZING. CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE ATTM WITH THE EVENT STILL A WAYS OUT...IE SNOW AND RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  15  47  22  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  17  47  23  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  19  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  21  50  28  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  21  49  28  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  23  47  28  52 /  40   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  23  47  28  52 /  30   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  22  50  28  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  25  49  29  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  26  50  31  55 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

29
522
FXUS64 KLUB 270938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING UP TO THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE PERFORMED POOR DUE TO AN OVER-RELIANCE IN
INDICATING A VERY GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE AS 09Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WINTRY PRECIP IS COURTESY OF
ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN UA TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ATTM AND
IS LIKELY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN THERE...THOUGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WERE NOTED MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...COINCIDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THUS FAR...SNOWFALL HAS ONLY
COLLECTED ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN ROADWAYS ARE STILL A BIT TOO WARM.
HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...WE COULD SEE A
SOME COLLECT ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL APPEARS ADEQUATE ATTM. VIS HAS GONE UP AND DOWN AT
KLBB AND KPVW /DOWN TO 1 AND 2 1/2 MILES RESPECTIVELY AT ONE
POINT/ ...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL THE WINTRY PRECIP. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
AS IT WILL SHIFT ESE TO ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN /AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES/ BY THE AFTN.
WANING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BY EARLY-MID MORNING WILL
LEAD TO THE END OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS. DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONT THAT WILL USHER THAT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH FCST AREA MONDAY BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING UNTIL
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AN EXPECTED NARROW DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY
MID LEVELS. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SNOW CHANCES THAT PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMS
TO HAVE WIDENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT LEAVES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT UNKNOWNS INTO FRIDAY
THAT WOULD AFFECT BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...DEPENDING MOSTLY ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PHASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE MID LEVEL
TEMPS TO OR ABOVE THE FREEZING. CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE ATTM WITH THE EVENT STILL A WAYS OUT...IE SNOW AND RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  15  47  22  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  17  47  23  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  19  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  21  50  28  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  21  49  28  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  23  47  28  52 /  40   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  23  47  28  52 /  30   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  22  50  28  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  25  49  29  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  26  50  31  55 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

29/07
135
FXUS64 KLUB 270553
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEMONSTRATING
STRENGTHENING LIFT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT TRANSITIONING ANY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALES FROM SILVERTON TO PLAINVIEW TO
LEVELLAND AND MORTON CURRENTLY SIT UNDER THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW WINDOW OF DEEP
SATURATION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SO NEAR 1 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL 2 INCH READINGS SEEM JUSTIFIED. EXACT SPATIAL
EXTENT OF 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL EXPRESS A TIGHT GRADIENT DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THIS BAND MEANDERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF -SN
FOR ALL SITES FOCUSING ON WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW
AND KLBB AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING TO
UNINTERRUPTED VFR BY DAYBREAK. NOT EXPECTING KCDS TO DROP BELOW
VFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANG AROUND.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE DIM FOR TONIGHT. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CREATE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE BONE DRY. THE MOST
IMPORTANT LIFT WILL COME FROM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS
MADE MORE OF A SOUTHERN PROGRESSION THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DESPITE THIS...THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL BE FAVORED
FOR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL BE
AROUND 700-500MB AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THIS PASSING COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT...AND A QUICK RETURN
TO SWLY WINDS AND A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. VERY
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS CRASH ACROSS THE WEST WITH ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST SLOWLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN STATES. MAIN FOCUS FOR WEST TEXAS WILL BE BUILDING 1055 MB
SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECM AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH HANDLING OF SFC AND
UPPER FEATURES. GENERAL CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF FRONT IS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
FRONTS USUALLY COME THROUGH FASTER/EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO
COULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY HOLD NEAR 20 SRN PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER SOUTH. SLOW WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.

KEPT BLENDED RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...AS SUPER
BLEND SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN. FIRST
SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TYPE...BUT DEEP COLD AIR WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT
SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. DEPTH OF SATURATION MAY BE MARGINAL FOR CLEAR
CUT SNOW. COULD SEE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT WOULD BE IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
PUNCH AS IT IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS TIME AROUND...BUT DUE TO DEEPER
SATURATION...SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW
FOR NOW...BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO NEW YEAR DAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP
CLOSE TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  16  34  17  49 /  20  20  10   0   0
TULIA         43  20  36  18  49 /  10  50  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  22  39  19  50 /  10  80  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  23  39  21  52 /  10  80  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  23  41  21  51 /  10  80  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  25  38  23  51 /  10  50  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  26  40  22  52 /  10  60  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     54  27  42  21  49 /   0  60  10   0   0
SPUR          63  27  41  24  50 /   0  40  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     68  32  40  25  50 /   0  30  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

31
068
FXUS64 KLUB 262347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO
ENCROACH UPON ALL THREE TERMINALS...BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A MIX WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT
MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. STRATUS WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT SUB-VFR CEILINGS IF ANY LOOK TO BE SHORT
LIVED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE DIM FOR TONIGHT. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CREATE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE BONE DRY. THE MOST
IMPORTANT LIFT WILL COME FROM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS
MADE MORE OF A SOUTHERN PROGRESSION THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DESPITE THIS...THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL BE FAVORED
FOR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL BE
AROUND 700-500MB AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THIS PASSING COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT...AND A QUICK RETURN
TO SWLY WINDS AND A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. VERY
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS CRASH ACROSS THE WEST WITH ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST SLOWLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN STATES. MAIN FOCUS FOR WEST TEXAS WILL BE BUILDING 1055 MB
SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECM AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH HANDLING OF SFC AND
UPPER FEATURES. GENERAL CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF FRONT IS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
FRONTS USUALLY COME THROUGH FASTER/EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO
COULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY HOLD NEAR 20 SRN PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER SOUTH. SLOW WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.

KEPT BLENDED RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...AS SUPER
BLEND SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN. FIRST
SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TYPE...BUT DEEP COLD AIR WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT
SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. DEPTH OF SATURATION MAY BE MARGINAL FOR CLEAR
CUT SNOW. COULD SEE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT WOULD BE IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
PUNCH AS IT IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS TIME AROUND...BUT DUE TO DEEPER
SATURATION...SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW
FOR NOW...BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO NEW YEAR DAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP
CLOSE TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  34  17  49  22 /  20  10   0   0   0
TULIA         20  36  18  49  22 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  38  19  50  23 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  39  21  52  26 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  40  21  51  25 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  40  23  51  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  40  22  52  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  40  21  49  27 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          27  41  24  50  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  42  25  50  28 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
224
FXUS64 KLUB 262057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE DIM FOR TONIGHT. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CREATE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE BONE DRY. THE MOST
IMPORTANT LIFT WILL COME FROM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS
MADE MORE OF A SOUTHERN PROGRESSION THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DESPITE THIS...THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL BE FAVORED
FOR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL BE
AROUND 700-500MB AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THIS PASSING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT...AND A QUICK RETURN
TO SWLY WINDS AND A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. VERY
BROAD CYLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS CRASH ACROSS THE WEST WITH ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST SLOWLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN STATES. MAIN FOCUS FOR WEST TEXAS WILL BE BUILDING 1055 MB
SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECM AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH HANDLING OF SFC AND
UPPER FEATURES. GENERAL CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF FRONT IS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
FRONTS USUALLY COME THROUGH FASTER/EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO
COULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY HOLD NEAR 20 SRN PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER SOUTH. SLOW WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.

KEPT BLENDED RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...AS SUPER
BLEND SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN. FIRST
SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TYPE...BUT DEEP COLD AIR WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT
SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. DEPTH OF SATURATION MAY BE MARGINAL FOR CLEAR
CUT SNOW. COULD SEE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT WOULD BE IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
PUNCH AS IT IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS TIME AROUND...BUT DUE TO DEEPER
SATURATION...SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW
FOR NOW...BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO NEW YEAR DAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP
CLOSE TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  34  17  49  22 /  20  10   0   0   0
TULIA         20  36  18  49  22 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  38  19  50  23 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  39  21  52  26 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  40  21  51  25 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  40  23  51  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  40  22  52  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  40  21  49  27 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          27  41  24  50  27 /  20  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  42  25  50  28 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/06
504
FXUS64 KLUB 261808
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KLBB WITHIN THE HOUR SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z TO 12Z
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN MORE SO AT KPVW AND
KLBB /14-16 KTS/. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT KCDS THIS AFTN...AND
A FEW HOURS LATER /EARLY EVENING/ AT KLBB AND KCDS. WINDS WILL
THEREFORE VEER TO THE NORTH AOA 11 KTS. MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND COULD MAKE RUN AT
KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A FEW MVFR DECK FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR CLOUD DECK
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KPVW AND KLBB. NOT SURE HOW THICK THE
CLOUDS WILL GET AND WILL MAINTAIN A SCT MVFR DECK FOR NOW. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...COURTESY OF A CUTOFF LOW NEARING
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTING NE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILST ITS SRN PERIPHERY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE CWA TO
NEAR NWRN OLD MEXICO BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO PUSH DOWN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /15-20 MPH/ AND IN FACT IS PROGGED TO
SUBSIDE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN FRINGES OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN...DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...AFFECT THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR THE CWA AOA MIDNIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
ASCENT COUPLED WITH MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE LIKELY THE REASONS BEHIND LIGHT PRECIP BEING DISPLAYED.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING OFF RELATIVELY DRY /PWATS LESS THAN
0.30 INCHES/ IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN
UP. THUS...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORED VERSUS MORE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AT ITS PEAK FROM 27/00Z-12Z...AS THE
CUTOFF LOW BRUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION AND ITS SRN
PERIPHERY NEARS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND IS
POSSIBLY THE REASON FOR A FEW FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOWING DISMAL
PRECIP IN BOTH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS HENCE COINCIDING WITH
THE BEST PWATS. SNOW AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE
ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT...VERSUS LIQUID INITIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
S-SW SFC WINDS OCCURS ELSEWHERE /AHEAD THE FRONT/...TEMPS WILL RANGE
FORM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA...AND UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN MORE BROADLY
CYCLONIC WITH TIME. THAT WILL ALLOW COLD AIR OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES AND NORTH OF ALASKA TO FINALLY BREAK SWD. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE AND
TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH
COULD BEGIN TO LIFT TEMPS TOWARD THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THAT CLOSED LOW COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FCST
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ENOUGH TO COVER
FOR NOW. PRECIP PHASE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF WARMER SOLUTIONS
END UP WINNING OUT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION ONLY AS SNOW SINCE
FAVORING COLDER COLUMN.

CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED SHEARING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATE. TEMPS TO BE QUITE COOL BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT
WARM SUNDAY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THEN WILL BE
WAITING FOR THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MODEL TIMING BEGINNING TO HOME
IN ON MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT. FINALLY...STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  34  17  47  24 /  20  10   0   0   0
TULIA         20  36  19  49  26 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  38  20  49  27 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  39  22  50  28 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  40  22  50  28 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  40  25  49  28 /  20  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  40  24  50  29 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  40  23  52  29 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          27  41  25  51  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  42  27  51  33 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
200
FXUS64 KLUB 261121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN MORE SO AT KPVW AND
KLBB /14-16 KTS/. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT KCDS THIS AFTN...AND
A FEW HOURS LATER /EARLY EVENING/ AT KLBB AND KCDS. WINDS WILL
THEREFORE VEER TO THE NORTH AOA 11 KTS. MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND COULD MAKE RUN AT
KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A FEW MVFR DECK FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR CLOUD DECK
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KPVW AND KLBB. NOT SURE HOW THICK THE
CLOUDS WILL GET AND WILL MAINTAIN A SCT MVFR DECK FOR NOW. WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...COURTESY OF A CUTOFF LOW NEARING
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTING NE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILST ITS SRN PERIPHERY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE CWA TO
NEAR NWRN OLD MEXICO BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO PUSH DOWN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /15-20 MPH/ AND IN FACT IS PROGGED TO
SUBSIDE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN FRINGES OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN...DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...AFFECT THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR THE CWA AOA MIDNIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
ASCENT COUPLED WITH MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE LIKELY THE REASONS BEHIND LIGHT PRECIP BEING DISPLAYED.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING OFF RELATIVELY DRY /PWATS LESS THAN
0.30 INCHES/ IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN
UP. THUS...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORED VERSUS MORE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AT ITS PEAK FROM 27/00Z-12Z...AS THE
CUTOFF LOW BRUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION AND ITS SRN
PERIPHERY NEARS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND IS
POSSIBLY THE REASON FOR A FEW FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOWING DISMAL
PRECIP IN BOTH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS HENCE COINCIDING WITH
THE BEST PWATS. SNOW AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE
ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT...VERSUS LIQUID INITIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
S-SW SFC WINDS OCCURS ELSEWHERE /AHEAD THE FRONT/...TEMPS WILL RANGE
FORM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA...AND UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN MORE BROADLY
CYCLONIC WITH TIME. THAT WILL ALLOW COLD AIR OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES AND NORTH OF ALASKA TO FINALLY BREAK SWD. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE AND
TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN INCRESED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH
COULD BEGIN TO LIFT TEMPS TOWARD THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THAT CLOSED LOW COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FCST
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ENOUGH TO COVER
FOR NOW. PRECIP PHASE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF WARMER SOLUTIONS
END UP WINNING OUT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION ONLY AS SNOW SINCE
FAVORING COLDER COLUMN.

CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED SHEARING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATE. TEMPS TO BE QUITE COOL BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT
WARM SUNDAY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THEN WILL BE
WAITING FOR THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MODEL TIMING BEGINNING TO HOME
IN ON MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT. FINALLY...STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  16  34  17  47 /  20  20  10   0   0
TULIA         47  20  36  19  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  22  38  20  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  23  39  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  23  40  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  26  40  25  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  26  40  24  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  27  40  23  52 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPUR          64  27  41  25  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  32  42  27  51 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
410
FXUS64 KLUB 260921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...COURTESY OF A CUTOFF LOW NEARING
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTING NE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILST ITS SRN PERIPHERY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE CWA TO
NEAR NWRN OLD MEXICO BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO PUSH DOWN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE PER 08Z METARS. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /15-20 MPH/ AND IN FACT IS PROGGED TO
SUBSIDE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN FRINGES OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN...DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN...AFFECT THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR THE CWA AOA MIDNIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
ASCENT COUPLED WITH MOISTENING SOUNDING PROFILES AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE LIKELY THE REASONS BEHIND LIGHT PRECIP BEING DISPLAYED.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING OFF RELATIVELY DRY /PWATS LESS THAN
0.30 INCHES/ IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN
UP. THUS...VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORED VERSUS MORE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AT ITS PEAK FROM 27/00Z-12Z...AS THE
CUTOFF LOW BRUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION AND ITS SRN
PERIPHERY NEARS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND IS
POSSIBLY THE REASON FOR A FEW FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOWING DISMAL
PRECIP IN BOTH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS HENCE COINCIDING WITH
THE BEST PWATS. SNOW AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE
ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT...VERSUS LIQUID INITIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
S-SW SFC WINDS OCCURS ELSEWHERE /AHEAD THE FRONT/...TEMPS WILL RANGE
FORM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA...AND UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN MORE BROADLY
CYCLONIC WITH TIME. THAT WILL ALLOW COLD AIR OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES AND NORTH OF ALASKA TO FINALLY BREAK SWD. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE AND
TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN INCRESED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH
COULD BEGIN TO LIFT TEMPS TOWARD THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THAT CLOSED LOW COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FCST
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ENOUGH TO COVER
FOR NOW. PRECIP PHASE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF WARMER SOLUTIONS
END UP WINNING OUT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION ONLY AS SNOW SINCE
FAVORING COLDER COLUMN.

CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED SHEARING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATE. TEMPS TO BE QUITE COOL BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT
WARM SUNDAY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THEN WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL...MODEL TIMING BEGINNING TO HOME IN ON
MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH TEMP
GRADIENT. FINALLY...STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  16  34  17  47 /  20  20  10   0   0
TULIA         47  20  36  19  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  22  38  20  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  23  39  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  23  40  22  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  26  40  25  49 /  10  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  26  40  24  50 /  10  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  27  40  23  52 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPUR          64  27  41  25  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  32  42  27  51 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
798
FXUS64 KLUB 260548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY IMPACT KCDS AND KPVW TERMINALS A
BIT EARLIER DURING SECOND HALF OF FORECAST...SOONER THAN CURRENT
THINKING. INITIAL IMPACT WOULD BE WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK QUITE
SLIM THROUGH 00Z. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDING DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEST DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL
THEREFORE PULL MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE
LOOKING DIMMER BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PEAK TIME OF LIFT
BUT WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. BY THE
TIME BETTER SATURATION OCCURS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LIFT HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BUT WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAPPING INTO ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NETHER
REACHES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND 1052-1056MB DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL NOT LIKELY BUDGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RETURNING TO
LEE TROUGHING NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING A TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
WITH THE FORECAST. LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  46  16  36  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         31  49  20  37  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     33  53  21  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     33  56  23  39  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       34  58  24  39  20 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   33  57  26  40  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  57  26  39  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  58  26  39  21 /   0  10  20  10   0
SPUR          35  62  28  41  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     38  62  30  40  24 /   0  10  20  20   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
226
FXUS64 KLUB 252346
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK QUITE
SLIM THROUGH 00Z. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDING DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEST DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL
THEREFORE PULL MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE
LOOKING DIMMER BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PEAK TIME OF LIFT
BUT WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. BY THE
TIME BETTER SATURATION OCCURS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LIFT HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BUT WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAPPING INTO ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NETHER
REACHES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND 1052-1056MB DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL NOT LIKELY BUDGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RETURNING TO
LEE TROUGHING NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING A TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
WITH THE FORECAST. LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  46  16  36  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         31  49  20  37  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     33  53  21  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     33  56  23  39  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       34  58  24  39  20 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   33  57  26  40  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  57  26  39  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  58  26  39  21 /   0  10  20  10   0
SPUR          35  62  28  41  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     38  62  30  40  24 /   0  10  20  20   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
536
FXUS64 KLUB 252040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE EAST AND A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LOW WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK QUITE
SLIM THROUGH 00Z. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDING DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEST DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL
THEREFORE PULL MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND ARE
LOOKING DIMMER BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PEAK TIME OF LIFT
BUT WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. BY THE
TIME BETTER SATURATION OCCURS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...LIFT HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BUT WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAPPING INTO ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NETHER
REACHES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND 1052-1056MB DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL NOT LIKELY BUDGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RETURNING TO
LEE TROUGHING NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING A TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE TROUBLESOME BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
WITH THE FORECAST. LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  46  16  36  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
TULIA         31  49  20  37  18 /   0  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     33  53  21  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     33  56  23  39  19 /   0  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       34  58  24  39  20 /   0  10  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   33  57  26  40  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  57  26  39  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  58  26  39  21 /   0  10  20  10   0
SPUR          35  62  28  41  22 /   0  10  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     38  62  30  40  24 /   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
440
FXUS64 KLUB 251845
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1245 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS TODAY DOWNWARD GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF
THE HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT TO BRING A
WIND SHIFT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         56  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     56  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     54  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       57  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   54  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    56  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     60  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          57  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     59  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
410
FXUS64 KLUB 251729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT TO BRING A
WIND SHIFT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         61  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       60  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    60  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     61  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          61  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     62  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
898
FXUS64 KLUB 251124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS ERN NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         61  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       60  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    60  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     61  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          61  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     62  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
807
FXUS64 KLUB 250924
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EGGNOG ADVISORY FOR ALL TX ZONES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

$$

14/93
136
FXUS64 KLUB 250540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
S/SWLY WINDS WILL INCR AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE THU MORNG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         28  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     29  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     28  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       30  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   27  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    29  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     31  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          31  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     33  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
921
FXUS64 KLUB 250024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         27  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     28  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     27  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    28  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     30  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          30  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02
183
FXUS64 KLUB 242150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         27  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     28  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     27  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    28  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     30  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          30  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/24
216
FXUS64 KLUB 241729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
BCMG QUITE BREEZY /SWRLY/ BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
.BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  26  60  30  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         47  25  62  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  26  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  27  62  35  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  28  63  36  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   48  27  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  26  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     51  27  64  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  27  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  29  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
065
FXUS64 KLUB 241116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM WEST TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 12 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
TO WEST THIS AFTN THEN SOUTH TO SW THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN
SPEED WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
..BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  26  60  30  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         47  25  62  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  26  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  27  62  35  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  28  63  36  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   48  27  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  26  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     51  27  64  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  27  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  29  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
698
FXUS64 KLUB 241008
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
...BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NULL.
&&

$$

07/93
310
FXUS64 KLUB 240535
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY STILL FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC OR 09
UTC...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARE STILL SHOWING PERIODIC ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME WE
ARE PLANNING ON ENDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM AS SCHEDULED.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT KCDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SHOULD DROP UNDER 20 KTS BY 7 OR 8
PM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        17  47  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  46  25  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  47  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  48  24  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  49  27  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   23  48  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    24  47  25  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  51  29  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  50  28  63  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  51  30  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
130
FXUS64 KLUB 232344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARE STILL SHOWING PERIODIC ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME WE
ARE PLANNING ON ENDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT KCDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SHOULD DROP UNDER 20 KTS BY 7 OR 8
PM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        17  47  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  46  25  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  47  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  48  24  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  49  27  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   23  48  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    24  47  25  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  51  29  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  50  28  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  51  30  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

33
690
FXUS64 KLUB 232157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  46  24  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  48  27  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  48  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     24  47  27  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  47  29  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   24  48  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  48  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  50  31  67  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  50  30  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     30  51  31  66  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

26/24
156
FXUS64 KLUB 231747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN TRENDS...HAVE INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY. THERE IS A BIT OF A CLEARING MOVING
THROUGH THE CWFA WHICH IS HELPING TO MIX WINDS DOWNWARD YIELDING
SPEEDS IN THE LOWER 30S JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE HRX AND REE WEST TEXAS
MESONET SODARS HAVE ALSO INDICATED 50KT SPEEDS NOT FAR OFF THE DECK.
MORE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS SPEEDS A BIT MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING ALLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SPEEDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY AFTER 03Z AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOTE THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ICING
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT EXPECT KLBB AND
KPVW TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SO SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS SO LIGHT THAT GOING WITH ANY MENTION
WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED. WILL WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. WIND SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KCDS
BUT REMAIN EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. THESE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

26/99/26
305
FXUS64 KLUB 231125 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT EXPECT KLBB AND
KPVW TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SO SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS SO LIGHT THAT GOING WITH ANY MENTION
WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED. WILL WATCH THROUGH THE MORNING AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. WIND SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 25 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KCDS
BUT REMAIN EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. THESE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
290
FXUS64 KLUB 231032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
432 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FASTER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN HAD IN
THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND THE 00Z RUNS TODAY.  BEST MODELS HAVE
BEEN THE HRRR AND TTU-WRF WHICH BOTH SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
THEIR FORECASTS COMPARED TO OBSERVED RADAR DATA.  WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE TROF AXIS IS ALMOST OVERHEAD AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING OF A CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THAT IS LIKELY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

ANY PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE IN THE RETURNS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME MIXED PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND BY SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GFS STILL WANTS TO RAMP
WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK.  ALL
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 10 MPH LOWER SO WE OPTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORTMAX STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS.  HIGHER RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING THAT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...NOT ANYTHING
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT AS THE
SECOND VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.  COVERAGE
IS LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS AND WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS HERE
SO PROFILE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
CAPROCK WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
FALLEN...CLOUD COVER...AND THE BRISK NORTH WIND.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROF AXIS
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND AS LAPSE RATES START TO DECREASE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT
COULD BE AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT.  STILL WILL SEE READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FINAL DAYS OF 2014 LOOK TO CLOSE OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS AND DIRECTS ARCTIC AIR INTO
MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS INCLUDING WEST TX. THIS TRANSITION WILL
ALREADY BE IN FULL SWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL THEN
A WARMING TREND IN STORE UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND TODAY/S
UPPER TROUGH. CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL SHAPING UP QUITE MILD AS LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SUBJECTS MUCH OF THE CWA TO AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SWLY GRADIENT WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MOS AS MAV AND MET APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY COOL FOR THIS
DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME.

ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD ACCORD WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA BY FRI AS
A PIECE OF A TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WHERE
THESE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW MUCH ENERGY LINGERS BACK IN THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST FOR FRI NITE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPER
ECM ADVECTS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ATOP OUR COOL DOME AND AS
SUCH IS EAGER TO GENERATE BOTH LIFT AND QPF ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS IS DRIER AND ABOUT 40 METERS HIGHER WITH
500MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO ITS FIERCEST COMPETITOR...BUT STILL
GARNERS LIGHT QPF ON SAT WITH ITS DAMPENED TROUGH. EARLIER
SUPERBLEND POPS WERE MASSAGED A BIT TO BETTER WEIGHT THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE...BUT A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR FRI NITE-SAT.

BY LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE STAGE LOOKS PRIMED FOR AN ARCTIC
DUMP AS DEEP NLY FLOW ENSUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT DEVIATING MUCH
WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT OUR MILD
DECEMBER MAY END ON A CHILLY NOTE. IF THE ARCTIC AIR IS AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE ARCTIC
AIRMASSES CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR SUSTAINING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPS WERE EDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH
CONSALL...BUT IT/S TOO SOON TO JUMP ON ANY POPS EVEN WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO OUR WEST BY MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  18  46  24  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  22  48  27  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  25  48  28  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     41  24  47  27  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       42  25  47  29  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  24  48  28  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  48  28  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  31  50  31  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  28  50  30  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  30  51  31  66 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93
257
FXUS64 KLUB 230603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT BAND OF -RASN IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL AT THIS TIME SHOULD
CLEAR WITHIN FIRST HOUR OF FCST. ANOTHER AREA OF -SN CURRENTLY
MOVING SSE THROUGH NERN NM/NW TX PNHDL APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS
ALONG OR TO THE WEST OF A KPVW-TO-KLBB LINE AROUND 09Z-10Z. CIGS
MAY DROP BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AROUND
THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS.

NEXT FOCUS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING MID-TO-LATE MORNG WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS AND PATCHY
BLOWING DUST AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT STRONG FORCING/ASCENT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS AREA WITH COOLING
OF COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA...A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AFTN FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...RECENT HRRR
FORECAST TRENDS ALONG WITH REGIONAL SURFACE OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BEST ASCENT MAY
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NM AND ROTATE EAST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS NWP OUTPUT/FORECAST SHIFTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS HEAVIEST PCPN IS APPEARING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
110
FXUS64 KLUB 230354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT STRONG FORCING/ASCENT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS AREA WITH COOLING
OF COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA...A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AFTN FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...RECENT HRRR
FORECAST TRENDS ALONG WITH REGIONAL SURFACE OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BEST ASCENT MAY
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NM AND ROTATE EAST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS NWP OUTPUT/FORECAST SHIFTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS HEAVIEST PCPN IS APPEARING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION.
JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
720
FXUS64 KLUB 230130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
730 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERN HAS ARISEN FROM THREAT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THREAT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS FROM FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION.
JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
.TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
222
FXUS64 KLUB 230026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS WILL BE CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KLBB AND KPVW AS THREAT OF
-SHRA/RA INCREASES AND TRANSITIONS TO -RASN THEN -SN OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF /HEAVIER/ BANDS OF -SN.
MEANWHILE...OVER AT KCDS...EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE PASSING -SHRA.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS IN WAKE
OF PRECIPITATION TUE MORNG. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
40KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNG THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
..TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.
&&

$$

02
686
FXUS64 KLUB 222217
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT LIFT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 4 PM. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO NRN NM
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN SWING SEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA WITH A
850MB TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND A 700 MB
LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP IN THIS
TROUGH AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT THE SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE
GENEROUS...RANGING FROM ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND THIS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL END EARLY IN THAT AREA
AND THERE MAY NOT BE A LARGE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MORE OF THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIQUID...AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A MIXTURE ON THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO...AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND WE HAVE FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST SHY OF TWO
INCHES ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...AND MOST ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN PROBLEM FREE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
...TO COVER THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM SNOW.

AFTER THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
SPEEDS...BUT WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 40S MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION WITH THIS EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW SHEARS OUT LATE TUE WITH ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY FORCING WITH TRAILING SHORTWV SHOULD BE
WELL EAST OF THE TX PNHDL/ROLLING PLAINS WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEAD ENERGY
SPLITTING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS /20-30
MPH/ CHRISTMAS DAY. H8 THERMAL RIDGING OF 12-14C COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO
SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLDU IN
THE GRIDS ATTM AS TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH SYSTEM YET TO ENTER THE CONUS U/A NETWORK.

STILL MAJORITY OF MED RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LONGWV TROUGH
VCNTY THE ROCKIES BY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM THAT POINT ON THEIR
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRY TO HANG BACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWV OVER AZ/NM HAS
RAMIFICATIONS COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRI
SETTING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST ARRIVES. AS A RESULT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN
SPLIT SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH COLDER WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT ANY RATE SAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR FRI INDICATES EQUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED MANY TIME BEFORE THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  39  20  46  25 /  80  10  10   0   0
TULIA         31  40  25  46  28 /  70  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  42  26  46  29 /  80  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  43  26  47  29 /  80  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  44  28  48  30 /  80  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  44  26  47  30 /  70  30   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    31  43  28  47  30 /  80  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  48  33  49  30 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          34  46  31  48  32 /  80  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  49  34  51  32 /  80  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027>029-033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

33/24
783
FXUS64 KLUB 221747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE DURATION OF CEILING AND POSSIBLY VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW IMPACT -SHRA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME IFR CONDITIONS OF SHORTER
DURATION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THESE TERMINALS...WHICH COULD WARRANT AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AT KLBB. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12 UTC AND 14 UTC WITH VFR RETURNING.

IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS BY MID-DAY
AT KLBB AND KPVW...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KCDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE NOT YET MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
PERIODS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SWATH OF
HEALTHY QPF /FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH/ TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
STICKING POINT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS THE NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-32F DURING
THE TIME PRECIP FALLS. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND IMPACT OF SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF IT MELTS ON IMPACT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...WE REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT DYNAMIC COOLING AND IMPRESSIVE PRECIP RATES COULD OVERCOME
THE WARM NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AND LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS
THREAT MAY END UP BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE TRENDS WITH
AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  27  38  21  50 /  20  70  10   0   0
TULIA         53  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  31  42  26  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  30  43  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  31  43  28  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  31  44  27  49 /  10  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  31  44  29  50 /  10  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  34  47  33  50 /  10  30  10  10   0
SPUR          62  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/24
897
FXUS64 KLUB 221658
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE NOT YET MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
PERIODS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SWATH OF
HEALTHY QPF /FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH/ TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
STICKING POINT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS THE NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-32F DURING
THE TIME PRECIP FALLS. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND IMPACT OF SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF IT MELTS ON IMPACT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...WE REMAIN CONCERNED
THAT DYNAMIC COOLING AND IMPRESSIVE PRECIP RATES COULD OVERCOME
THE WARM NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AND LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS
THREAT MAY END UP BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE TRENDS WITH
AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  27  38  21  50 /  20  70  10   0   0
TULIA         53  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  31  42  26  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  30  43  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  31  43  28  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  31  44  27  49 /  10  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  31  44  29  50 /  10  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  34  47  33  50 /  10  30  10  10   0
SPUR          62  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/24
184
FXUS64 KLUB 221148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
COLD FROPA FROM NEAR TCC-CDS AT 1130Z WILL BRING 15-20 KNOT NLY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS SCALE BACK IN
THE AFTERNOON.

DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BY TONIGHT SPELLS GOOD CHANCES FOR RA AT
LBB AND PVW BEFORE COLDER AIR AFTER 06Z THREATENS TO CHANGE THIS
OVER TO SN. COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING PVW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT-
BUT LIKE THE SNOW THREAT...THE WINDOW FOR MVFR AND IFR DOESN/T
OPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO NO EXPLICIT TAF
MENTION WILL BE MADE FOR EITHER ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$

93/14/93
646
FXUS64 KLUB 221035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MAP AT 09Z FEATURED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WITH A SEMI-AMBIGUOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE FROM ABOUT MEMPHIS NW TO DALHART AHEAD OF WEAK PRESSURE
RISES. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THIS MORNING UNDER STRONGER
CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEFORE EXITING OUR CWA BEFORE NOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE UNUSUALLY MILD START TO THE MORNING TEMPS TODAY WON/T HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE ENDING ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE A.M. AS MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHARPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN KS/NE. THIS PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR SUNSET BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT. ADD TO
THIS A LONG FETCH OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK TO
THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING AND EVENTUALLY PRECIP. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATEST
FOCUS FOR ASCENT IS TIED TO FN FORCING ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL
LAYER FROM 850-600 MB...SO MUCH SO THAT A 700MB WAVE/BRIEF LOW GENS
UP BY 06Z. UPPER JET SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL...SO LIFT AS A WHOLE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR POPS. NUDGED POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FN FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WPC QPF MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF GIVEN THE LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB WAVE.

WE/VE HAD BIGGER HEADACHES FORECASTING PRECIP PHASES BEFORE...BUT
THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER TIME. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE IS STILL
A BLACK ART...BUT THE 00Z MODEL TEMP PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES BY 03Z WITH A STEADY EXPANSION S-SE THRU 12Z. AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOW LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO ERADICATE THEIR DEEP
MELTING LAYER OF NEARLY 4K FEET THICK...SO ALL RAIN REMAINS THE
FORECAST FOR OUR ERN ZONES. ON THE CAPROCK...MARGINAL 2M AND GROUND
TEMPS POSE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS NO TRULY COLD AIR IS EVIDENT
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN EASILY
COMPENSATE FOR THESE MARGINAL TEMPS AND YIELD SNOW ACCUMS. SUCH IS
THE CASE IN THIS SETUP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOCUS THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES DIRECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. STILL...WE/RE KEEPING
SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 INCH OR LESS GIVEN OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR THESE
TOTALS FROM SREF PLUME DATA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH STILL
FAVORS OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE LL TEMPS WILL BE LESS MARGINAL AND THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE THE DEEPEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SNOW/PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY QUICK END TUESDAY MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE TROF AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z AS A
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...HOWEVER ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO RAMP A NORTH WIND UP INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE MAKING IT FEEL RATHER BRISK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN HOW STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AS WE HAVE GONE
THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...CLOSED LOW...OPEN
WAVE...ZONAL FLOW...AND NOW BACK TRENDING TOWARDS AN APPROACHING
WAVE. REGARDLESS...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 15 DEGREES AND TO
NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROPPING A BIT MORE INTO UPPER
40S BEFORE WARMING SOME FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  27  38  21  50 /  10  70  10   0   0
TULIA         54  31  41  27  49 /  10  70  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     56  31  42  26  50 /   0  70  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  30  43  27  49 /   0  70  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       60  31  43  28  50 /   0  70  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  31  44  27  49 /   0  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  31  44  29  50 /   0  70  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  34  47  33  50 /   0  30  10  10   0
SPUR          63  34  47  32  51 /   0  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  36  50  35  51 /   0  60  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
670
FXUS64 KLUB 220526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME STRATUS BUILDING INTO
THE ERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECTATION IS IT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH AND NE OF KCDS. OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES FROM
THE WEST AND NW...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCDS WHICH IS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ITSELF AND WILL THUS SEE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY ABOUT SIXTY MILES EAST OF KCDS.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING THAT CLOUD COVER TOWARD
KCDS...BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HOLD ON VCNTY OF KCDS TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR. NO SIMILAR
CONCERN FOR KPVW OR KLBB EACH OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
003
FXUS64 KLUB 212319
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY ABOUT SIXTY MILES EAST OF KCDS.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING THAT CLOUD COVER TOWARD
KCDS...BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HOLD ON VCNTY OF KCDS TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR. NO SIMILAR
CONCERN FOR KPVW OR KLBB EACH OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
264
FXUS64 KLUB 212154
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/33

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