Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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508
FXUS64 KLUB 202055
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  62  36  64  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         28  61  39  65  37 /   0   0  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     29  61  41  65  38 /   0   0  20  20   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  41  64  40 /   0   0  30  20   0
LUBBOCK       32  64  43  65  40 /   0   0  40  20   0
DENVER CITY   34  67  43  64  41 /   0   0  40  10   0
BROWNFIELD    33  66  43  65  41 /   0   0  40  20   0
CHILDRESS     36  61  44  61  41 /   0  10  60  60  10
SPUR          33  66  45  64  41 /   0   0  60  50  10
ASPERMONT     39  67  48  64  43 /   0   0  80  80  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01

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