Area Forecast Discussion
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498
FXUS64 KLUB 131954
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE WARMING EVIDENT IN CURRENT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN 700-400 MB LAYER WILL PREVENT INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM UTAH LATE
TODAY INTO WYOMING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EFFECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AN ASSOCIATED VERY SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS AND A 25-30 KNOT S/SW LOW LEVEL JET EARLY
THUR ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOS TEMPS
ON TRACK AND ACCEPTED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. JAMES

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TEXAS TODAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK WHERE IT MAY REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NORTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY OPEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LEAD PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DRAW A THINNING PLUME
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EMBEDDED SUPPORT WITHIN
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO HOME AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO...IT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DIRTY RIDGE WILL THEN
PERSIST...IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER...THOUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE SUBTLE FORCING IN THIS WEAK
FLOW REGIME REMAIN TOUGH TO PINPOINT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY...WITH A SECONDARY FRONT
MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS BOTH FRONTAL SURGES MAY STALL JUST
SHORT OF THE CWA...THOUGH IF THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH THEY
COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE 10-14 PERCENT POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED WHEN FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  64  93  64 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         64  94  65  94  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  93  65  94  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  94  67 /   0   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  94  68  96  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  66  96  67 /   0   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  65  97  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     67  98  71 100  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          66  96  67  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     69  98  70 100  72 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/23

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