Area Forecast Discussion
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423
FXUS64 KLUB 191213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93

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