Area Forecast Discussion
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027
FXUS64 KLUB 102017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  78  57  59  42 /  20  20  70  80  20
TULIA         57  78  56  61  45 /  20  20  70  80  20
PLAINVIEW     58  78  58  62  46 /  30  20  70  80  20
LEVELLAND     60  77  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  30
LUBBOCK       60  76  59  65  49 /  30  20  70  80  20
DENVER CITY   63  77  60  67  50 /  30  30  60  80  30
BROWNFIELD    62  78  60  66  50 /  30  40  70  80  30
CHILDRESS     62  80  61  65  50 /  20  20  60  80  20
SPUR          64  77  62  68  50 /  30  20  70  80  20
ASPERMONT     67  80  64  71  52 /  30  30  60  70  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/04

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