Area Forecast Discussion
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185
FXUS64 KLUB 312328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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