Area Forecast Discussion
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207
FXUS64 KLUB 020451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
WITH NLY GUSTS OF 53 MPH AND BLDU EARLIER AT LAMAR/CO. BUMPED UP
FROPA BY AN HOUR AT THE TERMINALS TO 12Z-13Z AND ALSO RAISED GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO THREATEN CDS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FEW-SCT LAYERS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        82  51  70  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  53  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  54  73  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  55  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  56  74  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  55  76  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  56  76  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  61  79  47  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          88  60  79  49  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  69  82  51  78 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
041
FXUS64 KLUB 012316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR. NEAREST THREAT OF TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CDS THIS EVNG
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STEADY SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BE
REPLACED BY GUSTY 15-25 KNOT NORTHERLIES FROM 13-14Z FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR DECKS THREATEN CDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN ACROSS A
GREATER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR CHILDRESS...BACK SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK...DOWN TO
BROWNFIELD.  DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ZONE ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.  TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE WARMED A BIT AND EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING...LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  ONLY MODEL THAT PAINTS
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE NAM WHICH HAS A SMALL SLIVER OF 2000
J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.  COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CU FIELD HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET SO
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN OUR AREA SEEING ANY POPS TONIGHT.  WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA WHICH WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY.
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WITH A
RAPID PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT SO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE DRY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO
COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES.  REST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE THE FRONT HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NORTH WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY STIR UP SOME BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANY
DUST SHOULD SETTLE THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING...WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
ONCE BREEZY NRLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT BY NIGHTFALL WHILST UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
BACK-DOORING THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY COURTESY OF AN ESEWRD
PROPAGATING UA LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAA WILL MAINTAIN
ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
/SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SRLY
FLOW BY SATURDAY...THANKS TO A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AND A NEARBY
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WHICH MAY BE A WELCOME CHANGE
CONSIDERING ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ONCE AGAIN ON TAP
/40S AND 50S/.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL PROMOTE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW
WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR CONVECTION TO IMPINGE ON THE
REGION FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT
THE CASE THIS TIME GIVEN DRIER ENTRAINED AIR HAS BEEN BROUGHT IN
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
LITTLE ELSE...DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY MID-HIGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE ITS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM...A FEW
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS BREAKING DOWN
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWRLY MID-LATE WEEK...AND THUS
MOISTURE FROM AN ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS DRAWS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
RAINFALL WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON IF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. HENCE...WILL OPT FOR SILENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  73  45  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  73  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  73  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  74  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  76  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  76  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  79  47  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          60  79  49  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  82  51  78  51 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
040
FXUS64 KLUB 012019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN ACROSS A
GREATER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR CHILDRESS...BACK SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK...DOWN TO
BROWNFIELD.  DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ZONE ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.  TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE WARMED A BIT AND EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING...LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  ONLY MODEL THAT PAINTS
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE NAM WHICH HAS A SMALL SLIVER OF 2000
J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.  COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CU FIELD HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET SO
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN OUR AREA SEEING ANY POPS TONIGHT.  WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA WHICH WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY.
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WITH A
RAPID PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT SO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE DRY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO
COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES.  REST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE THE FRONT HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NORTH WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY STIR UP SOME BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANY
DUST SHOULD SETTLE THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING...WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
ONCE BREEZY NRLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT BY NIGHTFALL WHILST UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
BACK-DOORING THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY COURTESY OF AN ESEWRD
PROPAGATING UA LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAA WILL MAINTAIN
ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
/SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SRLY
FLOW BY SATURDAY...THANKS TO A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AND A NEARBY
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WHICH MAY BE A WELCOME CHANGE
CONSIDERING ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ONCE AGAIN ON TAP
/40S AND 50S/.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL PROMOTE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW
WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR CONVECTION TO IMPINGE ON THE
REGION FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT
THE CASE THIS TIME GIVEN DRIER ENTRAINED AIR HAS BEEN BROUGHT IN
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
LITTLE ELSE...DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY MID-HIGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE ITS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM...A FEW
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS BREAKING DOWN
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWRLY MID-LATE WEEK...AND THUS
MOISTURE FROM AN ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS DRAWS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
RAINFALL WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON IF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. HENCE...WILL OPT FOR SILENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  73  45  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  73  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  73  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  74  47  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  76  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  76  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  79  47  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          60  79  49  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  82  51  78  51 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
885
FXUS64 KLUB 011732 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. THERE
MAY BE SOME BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST BUT
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HELP...SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE THE THREAT OF BLOWING
DUST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS BETWEEN ABOUT 23 UTC
AND 03 UTC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING....ARRIVING AT BOTH TERMINALS
AFTER 12 UTC THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WED MORNING SHOWS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
IN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH AN ULJ
ROTATING AROUND IT/S BASE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND OUT INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD FROM
WRN KS...ACROSS THE CAPROCK...AND ON INTO SE NM. AN DRY AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS NM BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WTX TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND A DRYLINE SHOULD FORM UP....RUNNING FROM NEAR
CHILDRESS TO NEAR POST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLD T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING JET. THE QPF
SIGNAL IS BETTER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA THOUGH AND WE
THINK 15-20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 2K J/KG OR SO ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPEAKING OF SURFACE
HEATING...WE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE...AND OCT 1 WILL PROBABLY
THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DIP OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND LIKELY
ENTER OUR NRN COUNTIES BY 6 AM OR SO. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM RETREATING VERY FAR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WE HAVE TAKEN LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING CLEARING
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH FOLLOWED BY A
1030MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN EVEN DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO COME BITTER EARLY OCTOBER MORNINGS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE NOW
FORECAST BY MOS GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME POCKETS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COOLER SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE DROP INTO THE 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF DRAGS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS WANTS NO PART OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCLEAR REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  50  71  41  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
TULIA         86  54  74  44  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  53  75  45  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  52  75  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  55  76  46  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  54  79  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  54  78  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  63  79  49  76 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          90  62  81  50  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  69  84  52  77 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
297
FXUS64 KLUB 011147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS BETWEEN ABOUT 23 UTC
AND 03 UTC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING....ARRIVING AT BOTH TERMINALS
AFTER 12 UTC THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WED MORNING SHOWS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
IN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH AN ULJ
ROTATING AROUND IT/S BASE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND OUT INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD FROM
WRN KS...ACROSS THE CAPROCK...AND ON INTO SE NM. AN DRY AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS NM BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WTX TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND A DRYLINE SHOULD FORM UP....RUNNING FROM NEAR
CHILDRESS TO NEAR POST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLD T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING JET. THE QPF
SIGNAL IS BETTER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA THOUGH AND WE
THINK 15-20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 2K J/KG OR SO ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPEAKING OF SURFACE
HEATING...WE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE...AND OCT 1 WILL PROBABLY
THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DIP OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND LIKELY
ENTER OUR NRN COUNTIES BY 6 AM OR SO. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM RETREATING VERY FAR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WE HAVE TAKEN LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING CLEARING
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH FOLLOWED BY A
1030MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN EVEN DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO COME BITTER EARLY OCTOBER MORNINGS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE NOW
FORECAST BY MOS GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME POCKETS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COOLER SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE DROP INTO THE 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF DRAGS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS WANTS NO PART OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCLEAR REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  50  71  41  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
TULIA         86  54  74  44  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  53  75  45  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  52  75  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  55  76  46  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  54  79  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  54  78  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  63  79  49  76 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          90  62  81  50  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  69  84  52  77 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
560
FXUS64 KLUB 010902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WED MORNING SHOWS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
IN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH AN ULJ
ROTATING AROUND IT/S BASE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND OUT INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD FROM
WRN KS...ACROSS THE CAPROCK...AND ON INTO SE NM. AN DRY AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS NM BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WTX TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND A DRYLINE SHOULD FORM UP....RUNNING FROM NEAR
CHILDRESS TO NEAR POST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLD T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING JET. THE QPF
SIGNAL IS BETTER JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA THOUGH AND WE
THINK 15-20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 2K J/KG OR SO ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPEAKING OF SURFACE
HEATING...WE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE...AND OCT 1 WILL PROBABLY
THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DIP OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND LIKELY
ENTER OUR NRN COUNTIES BY 6 AM OR SO. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM RETREATING VERY FAR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WE HAVE TAKEN LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING CLEARING
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH FOLLOWED BY A
1030MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN EVEN DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO COME BITTER EARLY OCTOBER MORNINGS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE NOW
FORECAST BY MOS GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME POCKETS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COOLER SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE DROP INTO THE 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF DRAGS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS WANTS NO PART OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCLEAR REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  50  71  41  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
TULIA         86  54  74  44  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     86  53  75  45  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  52  75  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  55  76  46  72 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  54  79  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    88  54  78  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  63  79  49  76 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          90  62  81  50  75 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  69  84  52  77 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
341
FXUS64 KLUB 010407
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION N AND S
OF KCDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL CLEAR OF THE TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION WAS JUST NOW STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. WV
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY WEAK LIFT SIGNAL TRAVERSING THE AREA BUT
GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  10   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  30  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
391
FXUS64 KLUB 010119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
819 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION WAS JUST NOW STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. WV
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY WEAK LIFT SIGNAL TRAVERSING THE AREA BUT
GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS PERHAPS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CHILDRESS THIS EVENING. ALSO WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT CHILDRESS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
HAZE.

HIEATT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  10   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  30  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99
898
FXUS64 KLUB 010012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
PULLED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS CAPPING INVERSION
SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE EFFECTIVELY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME INITIATION IN THE NORTH EAST BUT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA DOES NOT LOOK TO SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO FOR THE TIME
BEING.

HIEATT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS PERHAPS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CHILDRESS THIS EVENING. ALSO WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT CHILDRESS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
HAZE.

HIEATT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  10   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  10  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99
010
FXUS64 KLUB 302319
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS PERHAPS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT CHILDRESS THIS EVENING. ALSO WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT CHILDRESS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
HAZE.

HIEATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  20   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  20   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  30  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
832
FXUS64 KLUB 302029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST
SIDE AND LOW 60S ON THE EAST SIDE.  MIXING ZONE WAS FAIRLY BROAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AT THE SURFACE.  BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHEST WEST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DUE TO
AN AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 700-1400 J/KG ACROSS
THE SAME REGION.  NEXT ISSUE IS CAP STRENGTH WHICH ALSO VARIES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP.  WITH SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE...ALSO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
FORCING TO HELP STORMS INITIATE.  BOTH THE HIGHER-RES TTU-WRF AND
HRRR HOLD OFF ON INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 02Z AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIME LINE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...KEPT POPS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ENDING ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  LATE TIMING OF INITIATION
WILL ALSO HINDER COVERAGE DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

AFTER ANOTHER MORNING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...EXPECT TO SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF ALSO SHIFTS EAST.  MODELS
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OPTED TO PULL POPS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS A RESULT.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE APPROACH OF AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT...WILL CAUSE ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RETREATING
DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS POSSIBLY
NEARING STRONG LEVELS GIVEN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND PROGGED MUCAPE
OF AOA 1700 J/KG. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE TO
IMPINGE ON THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND PERHAPS RENEW PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB PER
6 HOURS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY /AOA 20 MPH/...WHERE BY THE
EVENING THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE FA AND POSE A RELAXING
GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS ON.

THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WX /OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/ TO COME TO PASS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COOL MORNING/S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY /LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SFC RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  81  52  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  84  55  73  46 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  84  55  73  47 /  20   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  84  56  75  48 /  10   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  85  57  75  48 /  20   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  85  58  77  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  86  58  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  93  59  79  50 /  30  10  10  10   0
SPUR          64  90  63  81  51 /  30  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  93  67  85  53 /  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
677
FXUS64 KLUB 301731 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE AT KLBB THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
KCDS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR BUT HAS A CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE
STILL AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS WELL.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SEE IF TEMPO CAN
BE REMOVED IF CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  52  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  57  86  55  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     83  58  86  55  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     84  59  86  56  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  60  87  56  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   85  60  87  57  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    85  59  88  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     88  64  93  58  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
SPUR          86  62  91  64  81 /  20  30  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     89  67  93  69  85 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
309
FXUS64 KLUB 301148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  52  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  57  86  55  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     83  58  86  55  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     84  59  86  56  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  60  87  56  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   85  60  87  57  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    85  59  88  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     88  64  93  58  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
SPUR          86  62  91  64  81 /  20  30  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     89  67  93  69  85 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
776
FXUS64 KLUB 300856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  52  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  57  86  55  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     83  58  86  55  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     84  59  86  56  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  60  87  56  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   85  60  87  57  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    85  59  88  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     88  64  93  58  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
SPUR          86  62  91  64  81 /  20  30  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     89  67  93  69  85 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
347
FXUS64 KLUB 300440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT COURTESY
OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET...OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EQUATE TO BRIEF VFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
DRYLINE/PAC FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME ACTIVE TUE AFTN WITH ISOLD-
SCT STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF KLBB. HAVE LEFT DETAILS OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW WITH STORMS AT KCDS EXPECTED AFT 00Z WED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FINALLY MAKING IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT IT WAS ADVANCING INTO INCREASINGLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR AND IT WAS SHOWING. THE ONCE SEVERE STORM WEST OF
CLOVIS IS NOW JUST A SHADOW OF ITSELF...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO ITS EAST AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TREND TO STOP. STILL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE TAIL END OF LIFT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GRAZES
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A MODESTLY STRONG AND MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FUEL/FORCING TO KEEP A
FEW WEAKER CONVECTIVE CORES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE REMOVED
THE SEVERE MENTION /ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES/ FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE DID KEEP POPS ROUGHLY THE SAME...AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE MINIMAL SHOWER/STORM MENTION EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HWO...HAVE BEEN SENT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO HOME...ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY LOCALLY THAN WE
SAW TODAY...AND WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR REMAINING IN
PLACE...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SLINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
OPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.  AS IT DOES...ANOTHER MINOR LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM T.C. RACHEL THOUGH ITS
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE QUITE UNREMARKABLE THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS
MORNING/S RUNS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WELL DISPLACED FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE DYNAMIC LIFT AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK IN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.  THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS AFTER WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO NM AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE 4KM NCEP WRF EXTENDS THE
CONVECTION MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BUT IT IS A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.  THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES.  SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYLINE PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.  INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LUBBOCK AREA THOUGH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY BUILD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST.  ONCE AGAIN...THREAT FOR LOW-MED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
EXIST WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF 2KJ/KG IN A REGION OF SHEAR BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS.

LONG TERM...
THE BULK OF THE EXCITEMENT DURING THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL A DRY...BREEZY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
AND ABRUPTLY PUTS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE SITUATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
I-27 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WITH REASONABLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 30
KTS...AND CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
MARK...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN CHC MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AGAIN...A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
LUBBOCK SOUTHWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY SOUTH OF
THIS LATITUDE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS WE MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FORCING FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A BREEZY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY SOONER...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...OPTED
TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG
FROPA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES BLUEBIRD CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS A
COMFORTABLE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  CERTAINLY AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  80  54  82  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         59  83  57  85  54 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  58  85  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  83  60  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  61  86  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  84  61  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  85  62  87  56 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  65  92  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          62  85  65  90  63 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  88  69  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23
964
FXUS64 KLUB 300259 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
959 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FINALLY MAKING IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT IT WAS ADVANCING INTO INCREASINGLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR AND IT WAS SHOWING. THE ONCE SEVERE STORM WEST OF
CLOVIS IS NOW JUST A SHADOW OF ITSELF...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO ITS EAST AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TREND TO STOP. STILL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE TAIL END OF LIFT WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GRAZES
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A MODESTLY STRONG AND MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FUEL/FORCING TO KEEP A
FEW WEAKER CONVECTIVE CORES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE REMOVED
THE SEVERE MENTION /ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES/ FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE DID KEEP POPS ROUGHLY THE SAME...AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE MINIMAL SHOWER/STORM MENTION EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HWO...HAVE BEEN SENT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO HOME...ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY LOCALLY THAN WE
SAW TODAY...AND WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR REMAINING IN
PLACE...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
LATE EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL W OF TERMINALS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL JET MAY TRY TO TAP INTO SOME
REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SHRA TO
TAFS. SFC BASED STORMS MORE LIKELY LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEYOND THE
FOCUS OF THIS TAF WITH POTENTIAL GREATEST AT KCDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SLINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
OPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.  AS IT DOES...ANOTHER MINOR LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM T.C. RACHEL THOUGH ITS
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE QUITE UNREMARKABLE THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS
MORNING/S RUNS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WELL DISPLACED FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE DYNAMIC LIFT AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK IN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.  THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS AFTER WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO NM AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE 4KM NCEP WRF EXTENDS THE
CONVECTION MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BUT IT IS A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.  THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES.  SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYLINE PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.  INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LUBBOCK AREA THOUGH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY BUILD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST.  ONCE AGAIN...THREAT FOR LOW-MED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
EXIST WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF 2KJ/KG IN A REGION OF SHEAR BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS.

LONG TERM...
THE BULK OF THE EXCITEMENT DURING THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL A DRY...BREEZY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
AND ABRUPTLY PUTS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE SITUATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
I-27 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WITH REASONABLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 30
KTS...AND CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
MARK...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN CHC MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AGAIN...A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
LUBBOCK SOUTHWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY SOUTH OF
THIS LATITUDE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS WE MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FORCING FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A BREEZY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY SOONER...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...OPTED
TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG
FROPA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES BLUEBIRD CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS A
COMFORTABLE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  CERTAINLY AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  80  54  82  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         59  83  57  85  54 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  58  85  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  83  60  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  61  86  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  84  61  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  85  62  87  56 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  65  92  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          62  85  65  90  63 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  88  69  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23
651
FXUS64 KLUB 292323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
LATE EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL W OF TERMINALS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL JET MAY TRY TO TAP INTO SOME
REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SHRA TO
TAFS. SFC BASED STORMS MORE LIKELY LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEYOND THE
FOCUS OF THIS TAF WITH POTENTIAL GREATEST AT KCDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SLINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
OPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.  AS IT DOES...ANOTHER MINOR LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM T.C. RACHEL THOUGH ITS
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE QUITE UNREMARKABLE THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS
MORNING/S RUNS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WELL DISPLACED FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE DYNAMIC LIFT AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK IN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.  THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS AFTER WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO NM AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE 4KM NCEP WRF EXTENDS THE
CONVECTION MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BUT IT IS A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.  THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES.  SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYLINE PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.  INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LUBBOCK AREA THOUGH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY BUILD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST.  ONCE AGAIN...THREAT FOR LOW-MED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
EXIST WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF 2KJ/KG IN A REGION OF SHEAR BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS.

LONG TERM...
THE BULK OF THE EXCITEMENT DURING THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL A DRY...BREEZY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
AND ABRUPTLY PUTS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE SITUATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
I-27 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WITH REASONABLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 30
KTS...AND CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
MARK...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN CHC MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AGAIN...A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
LUBBOCK SOUTHWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY SOUTH OF
THIS LATITUDE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS WE MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FORCING FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A BREEZY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY SOONER...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...OPTED
TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG
FROPA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES BLUEBIRD CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS A
COMFORTABLE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  CERTAINLY AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  80  54  82  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         59  83  57  85  54 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  58  85  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  83  60  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  61  86  55 /  10  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  84  61  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  85  62  87  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  65  92  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          62  85  65  90  63 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  88  69  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/16/24
560
FXUS64 KLUB 291950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SLINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
OPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.  AS IT DOES...ANOTHER MINOR LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM T.C. RACHEL THOUGH ITS
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE QUITE UNREMARKABLE THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS
MORNING/S RUNS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WELL DISPLACED FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE DYNAMIC LIFT AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK IN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.  THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS AFTER WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR MORE
LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO NM AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR VECTORS AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE 4KM NCEP WRF EXTENDS THE
CONVECTION MOST AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BUT IT IS A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.  THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN 4 COUNTIES.  SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYLINE PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE ESCARPMENT.  INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF
THE LUBBOCK AREA THOUGH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY BUILD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST.  ONCE AGAIN...THREAT FOR LOW-MED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
EXIST WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF 2KJ/KG IN A REGION OF SHEAR BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE BULK OF THE EXCITEMENT DURING THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL A DRY...BREEZY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA
AND ABRUPTLY PUTS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE SITUATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
I-27 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WITH REASONABLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 30
KTS...AND CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
WHILE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
MARK...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN CHC MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AGAIN...A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
LUBBOCK SOUTHWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY SOUTH OF
THIS LATITUDE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS WE MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FORCING FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A BREEZY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY SOONER...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...OPTED
TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG
FROPA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES BLUEBIRD CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS A
COMFORTABLE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  CERTAINLY AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  80  54  82  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         59  83  57  85  54 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  58  85  54 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  83  60  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  61  86  55 /  10  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  84  61  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  85  62  87  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  65  92  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          62  85  65  90  63 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     62  88  69  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/16
885
FXUS64 KLUB 291743
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAINLY W OF AMA-TXO-HOB LINE. INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...KCDS MAY SEE SCT STORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION ATTM.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GIVE RISE TO BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS
CLEAR THAT THE JET CORE/MAX AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
EVIDENCED BY FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT WILL
ESCAPE THE AREA...WE WILL STILL SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLORADO INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. POINTS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BROKEN ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN NEW MEXICO CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VALUES ARE PROGGED IN MODELS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND WILL
COME CLOSE TO BECOMING UNCAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS AROUND
30-40KT THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEE POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING...
BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVED FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EDGED INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH
ALSO WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND MAINLY ROLLING PLAINS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY...APPROACHING 2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...
WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-35 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA AND WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DRY AND VERY WARM AIR ENVELOPES THE REGION TO
THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND WE
HAVE EDGED MAXIMUMS UP ANOTHER NOTCH. GRADUAL DRYING WILL WORK ITS
WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PASS MIDDAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THURSDAY GIVING A SHARPER NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  81  54  83  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
TULIA         58  83  58  86  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  82  59  86  56 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     59  83  59  87  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  83  61  87  57 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   60  85  61  87  56 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    59  85  62  88  57 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  87  65  93  63 /  20  20  30  20  20
SPUR          61  85  65  91  64 /  10  20  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  88  68  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99
785
FXUS64 KLUB 291132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GIVE RISE TO BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS
CLEAR THAT THE JET CORE/MAX AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
EVIDENCED BY FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT WILL
ESCAPE THE AREA...WE WILL STILL SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLORADO INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. POINTS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BROKEN ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN NEW MEXICO CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VALUES ARE PROGGED IN MODELS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND WILL
COME CLOSE TO BECOMING UNCAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS AROUND
30-40KT THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEE POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING...
BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVED FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EDGED INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH
ALSO WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND MAINLY ROLLING PLAINS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY...APPROACHING 2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...
WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-35 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA AND WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DRY AND VERY WARM AIR ENVELOPES THE REGION TO
THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND WE
HAVE EDGED MAXIMUMS UP ANOTHER NOTCH. GRADUAL DRYING WILL WORK ITS
WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PASS MIDDAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THURSDAY GIVING A SHARPER NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  81  54  83 /  10  30  10   0   0
TULIA         79  58  83  58  86 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  59  82  59  86 /   0  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     78  59  83  59  87 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  62  83  61  87 /   0  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   79  60  85  61  87 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    79  59  85  62  88 /   0  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     85  64  87  65  93 /   0  20  20  30  20
SPUR          82  61  85  65  91 /   0  10  20  30  10
ASPERMONT     85  64  88  68  93 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
282
FXUS64 KLUB 290910
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GIVE RISE TO BONAFIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS
CLEAR THAT THE JET CORE/MAX AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
EVIDENCED BY FORECAST Q-VECTOR FIELDS. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT WILL
ESCAPE THE AREA...WE WILL STILL SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLORADO INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. POINTS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BROKEN ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN NEW MEXICO CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VALUES ARE PROGGED IN MODELS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND WILL
COME CLOSE TO BECOMING UNCAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS AROUND
30-40KT THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEE POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING...
BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVED FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EDGED INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH
ALSO WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND MAINLY ROLLING PLAINS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ZONES LATE TUESDAY...APPROACHING 2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...
WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-35 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA AND WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DRY AND VERY WARM AIR ENVELOPES THE REGION TO
THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND WE
HAVE EDGED MAXIMUMS UP ANOTHER NOTCH. GRADUAL DRYING WILL WORK ITS
WAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PASS MIDDAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THURSDAY GIVING A SHARPER NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  81  54  83 /  10  30  10   0   0
TULIA         79  58  83  58  86 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  59  82  59  86 /   0  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     78  59  83  59  87 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  62  83  61  88 /   0  20  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   79  60  85  61  87 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    79  59  85  62  88 /   0  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     85  64  87  65  93 /   0  20  20  30  20
SPUR          82  61  85  65  91 /   0  10  20  30  10
ASPERMONT     85  64  88  68  93 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
723
FXUS64 KLUB 290445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK SO WE HAVE
KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE KLBB TAF FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS DEVELOPED AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS. S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 00 UTC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB...AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR LIGHT FOG...BUT LARGE VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
764
FXUS64 KLUB 282334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB...AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR LIGHT FOG...BUT LARGE VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
764
FXUS64 KLUB 282334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB...AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR LIGHT FOG...BUT LARGE VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
497
FXUS64 KLUB 282052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26
497
FXUS64 KLUB 282052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26
696
FXUS64 KLUB 281741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1241 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THRU 29/12Z WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS.
SOME LIGHT EARLY A.M. FOG IS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN GENERALLY SW-N OF
LBB...BUT SHOULD NOT ENCROACH ON THE LBB AIRSPACE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE
LONE STAR STATE TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SUPERB FALL DAY. HEIGHTS
WILL GET A TEMPORARY RISE TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE
LONELIEST ROAD IN AMERICA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE CAPROCK BUT MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON THE
IDEA.

LONG TERM...
TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE
BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OUR
AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE TAP STILL APPEARS THOUGH SLIGHTLY THINNER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HAVE DIMINISHED MENTION OF THUNDER SLIGHTLY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY A MOISTURE PLUME
STILL SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT SUPPORTING PREVIOUS THUNDER
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. BEYOND...SEEING STRONGER DRYING IN
DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY THUNDER CHANCES
EVEN EASTERN AREAS BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION
A BIT MORE MID WEEK. FEW CHANGES OTHERWISE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN CONTROL
EARLY...REPLACED BY COOLING LATER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  78  59  81 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         79  57  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     78  58  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     77  58  79  61  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       77  60  79  62  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   76  58  81  62  85 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    76  59  81  62  86 /   0  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          81  62  84  64  86 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  63  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
493
FXUS64 KLUB 281130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF IFR CIGS WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL AND
WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STOP JUST SHORT OF THE TERMINAL WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 9 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE
LONE STAR STATE TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SUPERB FALL DAY. HEIGHTS
WILL GET A TEMPORARY RISE TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE
LONELIEST ROAD IN AMERICA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE CAPROCK BUT MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON THE
IDEA.

LONG TERM...
TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE
BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OUR
AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE TAP STILL APPEARS THOUGH SLIGHTLY THINNER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HAVE DIMINISHED MENTION OF THUNDER SLIGHTLY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY A MOISTURE PLUME
STILL SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT SUPPORTING PREVIOUS THUNDER
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. BEYOND...SEEING STRONGER DRYING IN
DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY THUNDER CHANCES
EVEN EASTERN AREAS BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION
A BIT MORE MID WEEK. FEW CHANGES OTHERWISE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN CONTROL
EARLY...REPLACED BY COOLING LATER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  78  59  81 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         79  57  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     78  58  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     77  58  79  61  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       77  60  79  62  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   76  58  81  62  85 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    76  59  81  62  86 /   0  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          81  62  84  64  86 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  63  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
493
FXUS64 KLUB 281130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF IFR CIGS WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL AND
WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STOP JUST SHORT OF THE TERMINAL WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 9 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE
LONE STAR STATE TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SUPERB FALL DAY. HEIGHTS
WILL GET A TEMPORARY RISE TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE
LONELIEST ROAD IN AMERICA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE CAPROCK BUT MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON THE
IDEA.

LONG TERM...
TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE
BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OUR
AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE TAP STILL APPEARS THOUGH SLIGHTLY THINNER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HAVE DIMINISHED MENTION OF THUNDER SLIGHTLY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY A MOISTURE PLUME
STILL SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT SUPPORTING PREVIOUS THUNDER
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. BEYOND...SEEING STRONGER DRYING IN
DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY THUNDER CHANCES
EVEN EASTERN AREAS BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION
A BIT MORE MID WEEK. FEW CHANGES OTHERWISE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN CONTROL
EARLY...REPLACED BY COOLING LATER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  78  59  81 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         79  57  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     78  58  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     77  58  79  61  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       77  60  79  62  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   76  58  81  62  85 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    76  59  81  62  86 /   0  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          81  62  84  64  86 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  63  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
360
FXUS64 KLUB 280813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE
LONE STAR STATE TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SUPERB FALL DAY. HEIGHTS
WILL GET A TEMPORARY RISE TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE
LONELIEST ROAD IN AMERICA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE CAPROCK BUT MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON THE
IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE
BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OUR
AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE TAP STILL APPEARS THOUGH SLIGHTLY THINNER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HAVE DIMINISHED MENTION OF THUNDER SLIGHTLY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY A MOISTURE PLUME
STILL SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT SUPPORTING PREVIOUS THUNDER
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. BEYOND...SEEING STRONGER DRYING IN
DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY THUNDER CHANCES
EVEN EASTERN AREAS BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION
A BIT MORE MID WEEK. FEW CHANGES OTHERWISE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN CONTROL
EARLY...REPLACED BY COOLING LATER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  78  59  81 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         79  57  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     78  58  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     77  58  79  61  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  60  80  62  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   76  58  81  62  85 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    76  59  81  62  86 /   0  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          81  62  84  64  86 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  63  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
360
FXUS64 KLUB 280813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE
LONE STAR STATE TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER SUPERB FALL DAY. HEIGHTS
WILL GET A TEMPORARY RISE TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE
LONELIEST ROAD IN AMERICA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE CAPROCK BUT MODELS ARE NOT SOLD ON THE
IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HAVE
BACKED OFF GRADUALLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OUR
AREA AS WELL. MOISTURE TAP STILL APPEARS THOUGH SLIGHTLY THINNER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HAVE DIMINISHED MENTION OF THUNDER SLIGHTLY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY A MOISTURE PLUME
STILL SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT SUPPORTING PREVIOUS THUNDER
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. BEYOND...SEEING STRONGER DRYING IN
DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY THUNDER CHANCES
EVEN EASTERN AREAS BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION
A BIT MORE MID WEEK. FEW CHANGES OTHERWISE WITH DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OF A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN CONTROL
EARLY...REPLACED BY COOLING LATER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  56  78  59  81 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         79  57  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     78  58  79  61  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     77  58  79  61  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  60  80  62  84 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   76  58  81  62  85 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    76  59  81  62  86 /   0  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          81  62  84  64  86 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  63  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
966
FXUS64 KLUB 280444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST. THERE IS
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT KLBB EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
REDUCTIONS OUT OF KCDS DUE TO MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY MIDDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THERE IS A THREAT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT KLBB FOR A PERIOD
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WHILE LOW CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
..LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME EXPANDING MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE WATER
VAPOR INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING HEIGHTS FLATTEN.

THE ONCE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TX AND UPPER LOW
DEPARTING THE BIG BEND REGION ARE QUICKLY LOSING THEIR IDENTITY
THANKS TO HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR EXPANDING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO.
THIS TREND TOWARD WESTERLY AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ARE THE RESULT
OF A DOWNRIGHT VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE IGNITING NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WHILE SERVING TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU FROM MATURING INTO
PRECIP. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT PREVENT THE LOW LEVELS FROM DRYING
OUT. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THEREFORE CENTERS ON FOG POTENTIAL
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE STAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AREA SOILS REMAIN THE MOST MOIST. AS
AREAS FROM ANDREWS TO HOBBS SAW THIS MORNING...SOME STRATUS SHOULD
ALSO MATERIALIZE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IF THE NAM IS CORRECT MAY
LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIDED WITH MILDER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS
TONIGHT WHILE NUDGING HIGHS UP A TOUCH ON SUNDAY UNDER RISING
THICKNESSES.

LONG TERM...
RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS
THENCE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE TOMORROW.  UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST WILL PHASE
UNCLEANLY WITH THE GREAT BASIN LOW AND TRIGGER EJECTION INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES.  AFTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME
ZONAL AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY...THINGS WILL PICK UP
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF GREAT BASIN LOW
TAKES OFF.  MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP STORMS IN NEW MEXICO UNTIL AFTER
00Z WITH PARMER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 40-50+ KT 0-6KM VALUES IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 30+ KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE CAPE GRADIENT
IS QUITE STEEP WITH THE 1500+ J/KG MAGNITUDE JUST TO OUR NW.  SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO GET GOING CONSIDERING THE FCST SHEAR. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS LOOK
TO HANG AROUND TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK ON TUESDAY THOUGH THE SIGNAL
FOR WEDNESDAY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEPICTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE MAY NOT MIX QUITE AS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND SO...WHILE LOWERING THEM...LEFT POPS
IN THE FORECAST. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY LEAVING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  77  56  78  57 /  10  10  10  20  50
TULIA         56  78  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     57  77  58  79  60 /  10  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     58  77  58  79  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       59  78  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   59  77  58  81  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    59  78  59  81  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     63  83  65  86  65 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          59  81  62  84  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     62  83  65  87  65 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
043
FXUS64 KLUB 272348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A THREAT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT KLBB FOR A PERIOD
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WE WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WHILE LOW CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME EXPANDING MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE WATER
VAPOR INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING HEIGHTS FLATTEN.

THE ONCE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TX AND UPPER LOW
DEPARTING THE BIG BEND REGION ARE QUICKLY LOSING THEIR IDENTITY
THANKS TO HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR EXPANDING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO.
THIS TREND TOWARD WESTERLY AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ARE THE RESULT
OF A DOWNRIGHT VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE IGNITING NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WHILE SERVING TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU FROM MATURING INTO
PRECIP. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT PREVENT THE LOW LEVELS FROM DRYING
OUT. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THEREFORE CENTERS ON FOG POTENTIAL
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE STAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AREA SOILS REMAIN THE MOST MOIST. AS
AREAS FROM ANDREWS TO HOBBS SAW THIS MORNING...SOME STRATUS SHOULD
ALSO MATERIALIZE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IF THE NAM IS CORRECT MAY
LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIDED WITH MILDER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS
TONIGHT WHILE NUDGING HIGHS UP A TOUCH ON SUNDAY UNDER RISING
THICKNESSES.

LONG TERM...
RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS
THENCE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE TOMORROW.  UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST WILL PHASE
UNCLEANLY WITH THE GREAT BASIN LOW AND TRIGGER EJECTION INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES.  AFTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME
ZONAL AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY...THINGS WILL PICK UP
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF GREAT BASIN LOW
TAKES OFF.  MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP STORMS IN NEW MEXICO UNTIL AFTER
00Z WITH PARMER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 40-50+ KT 0-6KM VALUES IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 30+ KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE CAPE GRADIENT
IS QUITE STEEP WITH THE 1500+ J/KG MAGNITUDE JUST TO OUR NW.  SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO GET GOING CONSIDERING THE FCST SHEAR. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS LOOK
TO HANG AROUND TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK ON TUESDAY THOUGH THE SIGNAL
FOR WEDNESDAY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEPICTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE MAY NOT MIX QUITE AS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND SO...WHILE LOWERING THEM...LEFT POPS
IN THE FORECAST. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY LEAVING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  77  56  78  57 /  10  10  10  20  50
TULIA         56  78  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     57  77  58  79  60 /  10  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     58  77  58  79  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       59  78  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   59  77  58  81  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    59  78  59  81  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     63  83  65  86  65 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          59  81  62  84  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     62  83  65  87  65 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
670
FXUS64 KLUB 272007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME EXPANDING MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE WATER
VAPOR INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING HEIGHTS FLATTEN.

THE ONCE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TX AND UPPER LOW
DEPARTING THE BIG BEND REGION ARE QUICKLY LOSING THEIR IDENTITY
THANKS TO HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR EXPANDING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO.
THIS TREND TOWARD WESTERLY AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ARE THE RESULT
OF A DOWNRIGHT VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE IGNITING NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WHILE SERVING TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU FROM MATURING INTO
PRECIP. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT PREVENT THE LOW LEVELS FROM DRYING
OUT. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THEREFORE CENTERS ON FOG POTENTIAL
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE STAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AREA SOILS REMAIN THE MOST MOIST. AS
AREAS FROM ANDREWS TO HOBBS SAW THIS MORNING...SOME STRATUS SHOULD
ALSO MATERIALIZE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IF THE NAM IS CORRECT MAY
LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIDED WITH MILDER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS
TONIGHT WHILE NUDGING HIGHS UP A TOUCH ON SUNDAY UNDER RISING
THICKNESSES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS
THENCE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE TOMORROW.  UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST WILL PHASE
UNCLEANLY WITH THE GREAT BASIN LOW AND TRIGGER EJECTION INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES.  AFTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME
ZONAL AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY...THINGS WILL PICK UP
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF GREAT BASIN LOW
TAKES OFF.  MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP STORMS IN NEW MEXICO UNTIL AFTER
00Z WITH PARMER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 40-50+ KT 0-6KM VALUES IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 30+ KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE CAPE GRADIENT
IS QUITE STEEP WITH THE 1500+ J/KG MAGNITUDE JUST TO OUR NW.  SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO GET GOING CONSIDERING THE FCST SHEAR. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS LOOK
TO HANG AROUND TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK ON TUESDAY THOUGH THE SIGNAL
FOR WEDNESDAY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEPICTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE MAY NOT MIX QUITE AS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND SO...WHILE LOWERING THEM...LEFT POPS
IN THE FORECAST. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY LEAVING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  77  56  78  57 /  10  10  10  20  50
TULIA         56  78  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     57  77  58  79  60 /  10  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     58  77  58  79  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       59  78  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   59  77  58  81  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    59  78  59  81  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     63  83  65  86  65 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          59  81  62  84  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     62  83  65  87  65 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26
494
FXUS64 KLUB 271750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LARGELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT LBB AND CDS WITH SPOTTY SHRA
OR A BRIEF TSRA UNDER A DECAYING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ODDS PRECIP
OR THUNDER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL ARE SLIM.

SETUP FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND SOME FOG LOOK BETTER NOW AT
LBB IN MOIST AND LIGHT SLY FLOW. PAST FEW MORNINGS HAVE HAD FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FARTHER SW...BUT THESE NOW LOOK TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUN. SOME IFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT MVFR LEVELS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND OUT OF
INFLUENCE OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LARGELY BE VOID OF ANY LIFT ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. NOTHING SPECTACULAR STANDS OUT IN THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AS WELL. WE WILL UNDERGO STRONG DRYING
AT MID LEVELS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INVADING THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO BECOMING UNCAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
TOPPING OUT AT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. ALL OF THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH KICKING
AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
FACTOR INTO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THUNDER CHANCES LATE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED OR NOT.
WE WILL PLAY MIDDLE-ROAD TIMING AND COVERAGE-WISE FOR NOW WITH
SOLID CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE MONDAY SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO WESTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING
DRIVEN BY HEALTHY BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY.

UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SPIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EDGING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAY TEND TO STALL OUT LATER
TUESDAY OVER OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND PERHAPS REMAIN
THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A TAP
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM RACHEL SHOULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK. INHERITED LOW
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WAS EXTENDED
ANOTHER 12 HOURS THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING BY THURSDAY WITH MAIN IMPACT TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT WITH
MODEST COOLING AND DRYING TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  56  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         78  57  79  57  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     75  58  78  59  81 /  20  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  59  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   75  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  85  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10
SPUR          80  60  82  63  84 /  20  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     84  63  84  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
183
FXUS64 KLUB 271124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AT EITHER TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND OUT OF
INFLUENCE OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LARGELY BE VOID OF ANY LIFT ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. NOTHING SPECTACULAR STANDS OUT IN THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AS WELL. WE WILL UNDERGO STRONG DRYING
AT MID LEVELS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INVADING THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO BECOMING UNCAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
TOPPING OUT AT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. ALL OF THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH KICKING
AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
FACTOR INTO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THUNDER CHANCES LATE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED OR NOT.
WE WILL PLAY MIDDLE-ROAD TIMING AND COVERAGE-WISE FOR NOW WITH
SOLID CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE MONDAY SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO WESTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING
DRIVEN BY HEALTHY BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY.

UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SPIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EDGING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAY TEND TO STALL OUT LATER
TUESDAY OVER OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND PERHAPS REMAIN
THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A TAP
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM RACHEL SHOULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK. INHERITED LOW
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WAS EXTENDED
ANOTHER 12 HOURS THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING BY THURSDAY WITH MAIN IMPACT TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT WITH
MODEST COOLING AND DRYING TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  56  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         78  57  79  57  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     76  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     75  58  78  59  81 /  10  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  59  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   75  58  79  59  82 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  85  64  86 /  10  10   0   0  10
SPUR          80  60  82  63  84 /  20  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     84  63  84  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
569
FXUS64 KLUB 270844
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND OUT OF
INFLUENCE OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LARGELY BE VOID OF ANY LIFT ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. NOTHING SPECTACULAR STANDS OUT IN THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AS WELL. WE WILL UNDERGO STRONG DRYING
AT MID LEVELS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INVADING THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO BECOMING UNCAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
TOPPING OUT AT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. ALL OF THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH KICKING
AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
FACTOR INTO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THUNDER CHANCES LATE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED OR NOT.
WE WILL PLAY MIDDLE-ROAD TIMING AND COVERAGE-WISE FOR NOW WITH
SOLID CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE MONDAY SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO WESTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING
DRIVEN BY HEALTHY BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY.

UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SPIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EDGING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAY TEND TO STALL OUT LATER
TUESDAY OVER OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND PERHAPS REMAIN
THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A TAP
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM RACHEL SHOULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK. INHERITED LOW
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WAS EXTENDED
ANOTHER 12 HOURS THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING BY THURSDAY WITH MAIN IMPACT TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT WITH
MODEST COOLING AND DRYING TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  56  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         78  57  79  57  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     76  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     75  58  78  59  81 /  10  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  60  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   75  58  79  59  82 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  85  64  86 /  10  10   0   0  10
SPUR          80  60  82  63  84 /  20  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     84  63  84  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
737
FXUS64 KLUB 270439
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
RATHER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD DAWN...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT BEING
LOW. THUS...TAFS CONTINUE TO REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH RICHER
PWATS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A QUASI-BAROTROPIC LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CAPTURED A FEW AXES OF AGITATED CU LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES...BUT AT BEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW OF THESE HAVE
MATURED TO VERY BRIEF NEEDLE-NOSE SHOWERS. NONETHELESS...THE TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE FOR A SMALL UPTICK IN PWATS AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH. THIS WOULD IMPLY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT LIMITED FORCING
AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. WE
DID INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N-NWRN
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
PWATS.

THERE MAY AGAIN BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SHOWN TO REMAIN UP MORE THAN IN PAST DAYS.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH SHOULD ALSO HINDER THIS
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS REASON...SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS ABOUND FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. WELL
DEFINED LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL UNTIL ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
DROPS OFF THE BC COAST AND PHASES WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM.
INTO MONDAY...THE ORIENTATION OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM OPENS AND
TILTS INTO A NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION GREATLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES NEWRD...FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL LATE TUE/WED BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR
WEST AND DRAGS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH INTO THURSDAY. WED/THU
EXHIBIT SOME INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS
TYPICAL TRANSITION SEASON FAST BIAS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
ODD ISOLATED STORM FIRING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AT THIS POINT...THE
SIGNAL LOOKS QUITE INCOHERENT AND WILL KEEP POPS SILENT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT INTO GEAR ON MONDAY IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS ERN NM AND MOVE
INTO THE NW PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN PROGGED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO STAY IN NM UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
AND WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UPWARD IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY/S STORM CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN BUT IT
DOES APPEAR SOME MENTION DOES APPEAR WARRANTED. THE STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECENT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUT EAST. GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT IN WEDNESDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPS PERHAPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  56  76  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         56  77  57  79  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     56  77  58  78  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  58  77  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  77  59  78  60 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  76  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  77  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  83  63  84  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
SPUR          61  81  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  83  61  85  63 /  10  20  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
675
FXUS64 KLUB 262321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CHANCES
OF THIS...AND HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING FOR NOW. SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACT APPEAR LOW AND HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH RICHER
PWATS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A QUASI-BAROTROPIC LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CAPTURED A FEW AXES OF AGITATED CU LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES...BUT AT BEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW OF THESE HAVE
MATURED TO VERY BRIEF NEEDLE-NOSE SHOWERS. NONETHELESS...THE TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE FOR A SMALL UPTICK IN PWATS AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH. THIS WOULD IMPLY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT LIMITED FORCING
AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. WE
DID INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N-NWRN
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
PWATS.

THERE MAY AGAIN BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SHOWN TO REMAIN UP MORE THAN IN PAST DAYS.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH SHOULD ALSO HINDER THIS
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS REASON...SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS ABOUND FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. WELL
DEFINED LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL UNTIL ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
DROPS OFF THE BC COAST AND PHASES WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM.
INTO MONDAY...THE ORIENTATION OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM OPENS AND
TILTS INTO A NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION GREATLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES NEWRD...FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL LATE TUE/WED BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR
WEST AND DRAGS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH INTO THURSDAY. WED/THU
EXHIBIT SOME INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS
TYPICAL TRANSITION SEASON FAST BIAS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
ODD ISOLATED STORM FIRING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AT THIS POINT...THE
SIGNAL LOOKS QUITE INCOHERENT AND WILL KEEP POPS SILENT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT INTO GEAR ON MONDAY IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS ERN NM AND MOVE
INTO THE NW PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN PROGGED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO STAY IN NM UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
AND WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UPWARD IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING. TUESDAY/S STORM CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN BUT IT
DOES APPEAR SOME MENTION DOES APPEAR WARRANTED. THE STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECENT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUT EAST. GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT IN WEDNESDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPS PERHAPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  56  76  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         56  77  57  79  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     56  77  58  78  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  58  77  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  77  59  78  60 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  76  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  77  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  83  63  84  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
SPUR          61  81  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  83  61  85  63 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
033
FXUS64 KLUB 262028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED OUR REGION WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH RICHER
PWATS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A QUASI-BAROTROPIC LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CAPTURED A FEW AXES OF AGITATED CU LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES...BUT AT BEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW OF THESE HAVE
MATURED TO VERY BRIEF NEEDLE-NOSE SHOWERS. NONETHELESS...THE TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE FOR A SMALL UPTICK IN PWATS AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH. THIS WOULD IMPLY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
SHOWER COVERAGE AND DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT LIMITED FORCING
AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. WE
DID INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR N-NWRN
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
PWATS.

THERE MAY AGAIN BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SHOWN TO REMAIN UP MORE THAN IN PAST DAYS.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH SHOULD ALSO HINDER THIS
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS REASON...SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MODEL TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS ABOUND FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. WELL
DEFINED LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL UNTIL ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
DROPS OFF THE BC COAST AND PHASES WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM.
INTO MONDAY...THE ORIENTATION OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM OPENS AND
TILTS INTO A NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION GREATLY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES NEWRD...FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL LATE TUE/WED BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR
WEST AND DRAGS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH INTO THURSDAY. WED/THU
EXHIBIT SOME INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS
TYPICAL TRANSITION SEASON FAST BIAS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
ODD ISOLATED STORM FIRING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AT THIS POINT...THE
SIGNAL LOOKS QUITE INCOHERENT AND WILL KEEP POPS SILENT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER DYNAMIC SHIFT INTO GEAR ON MONDAY IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS ERN NM AND MOVE
INTO THE NW PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN PROGGED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO STAY IN NM UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
AND WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UPWARD IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING.  TUESDAY/S STORM CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS UNCERTAIN BUT IT
DOES APPEAR SOME MENTION DOES APPEAR WARRANTED.  THE STORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECENT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUT EAST. GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT IN WEDNESDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING TEMPS PERHAPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  56  76  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         56  77  57  79  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     56  77  58  78  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  58  77  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  77  59  78  60 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  76  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  77  58  78  59 /   0  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  83  63  84  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
SPUR          61  81  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     64  83  61  85  63 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26
033
FXUS64 KLUB 261735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS THRU SAT AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
THREATEN AREAS WELL EAST OF LBB AND SOUTH OF CDS THIS AFTN BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOW CIGS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG AT LBB AROUND SUNRISE...BUT TAF MENTION IS TOO
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. MOST MODELS SHOW A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB KEEPING THE REGION STRONGLY
CAPPED. FURTHERMORE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEAR ZERO DUE TO
THE SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST TTU WRF MODEL RUN HAS ALSO COME
IN LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONVECTION. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM AT MID LEVELS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. SOME SIGNALS FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOW UP IN MODELS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES MAY BE LOW AT THE MOMENT WITH FURTHER
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN OPEN WAVE
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP BREAK THROUGH THE JUMBLED WEAK TROUGH/RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED RECENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAVE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL ENHANCE THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES
ALONG A DRY-LINE NEAR WESTERN BORDER LATE MONDAY AND MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY. CAPPING ISSUES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR THIS SO CANNOT
ALTER MUCH THE PREVIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS. BUT...WITH IMPROVED SHEAR
AND EXPECTED MODERATE CAPE LEVELS WE ANTICIPATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY IN OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST
ZONES.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE SLIM THUNDER OPPORTUNITY EXISTS MAINLY SATURDAY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS RETURN THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING SATURDAY BEFORE MAXING
ON SUNDAY SUPPORT DRYING TREND ALOFT. HPC HAS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES
OUR AREA SATURDAY AS DEVELOPED FROM THEIR OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE BLEND
AND APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT BLENDED WITH GFS...
WHILE OUR FAVOR IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RESTRICTIVE WRF/NAM
SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. SO WE HAVE RETAINED A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE GRADUAL DRYING EVENT UNFOLDS...THEN AN EVENTUAL
COOLING EXPECTED EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR LATE THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO VARYING DEGREE AND AT DIFFERENT
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT. SHARPER AND SLOWER TROUGH PER ECMWF
MIGHT INVOLVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH TOO MUCH MODEL
SEPARATION AND INCONSISTENCY TO LEAN INTO THIS YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  55  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         78  56  79  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  56  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  57  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   77  57  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  61  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          80  61  81  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     82  64  84  63  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
053
FXUS64 KLUB 261137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW VISBYS ARE CURRENTLY PATCHY ACROSS THE AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN LOWERED VISBYS AT KLBB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...VISBYS
WOULD BE REDUCED QUICKLY IF IT DOES OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. MOST MODELS SHOW A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB KEEPING THE REGION STRONGLY
CAPPED. FURTHERMORE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEAR ZERO DUE TO
THE SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST TTU WRF MODEL RUN HAS ALSO COME
IN LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONVECTION. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM AT MID LEVELS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. SOME SIGNALS FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOW UP IN MODELS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES MAY BE LOW AT THE MOMENT WITH FURTHER
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN OPEN WAVE
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP BREAK THROUGH THE JUMBLED WEAK TROUGH/RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED RECENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAVE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL ENHANCE THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES
ALONG A DRY-LINE NEAR WESTERN BORDER LATE MONDAY AND MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY. CAPPING ISSUES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR THIS SO CANNOT
ALTER MUCH THE PREVIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS. BUT...WITH IMPROVED SHEAR
AND EXPECTED MODERATE CAPE LEVELS WE ANTICIPATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY IN OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST
ZONES.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE SLIM THUNDER OPPORTUNITY EXISTS MAINLY SATURDAY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS RETURN THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING SATURDAY BEFORE MAXING
ON SUNDAY SUPPORT DRYING TREND ALOFT. HPC HAS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES
OUR AREA SATURDAY AS DEVELOPED FROM THEIR OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE BLEND
AND APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT BLENDED WITH GFS...
WHILE OUR FAVOR IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RESTRICTIVE WRF/NAM
SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. SO WE HAVE RETAINED A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE GRADUAL DRYING EVENT UNFOLDS...THEN AN EVENTUAL
COOLING EXPECTED EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR LATE THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO VARYING DEGREE AND AT DIFFERENT
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT. SHARPER AND SLOWER TROUGH PER ECMWF
MIGHT INVOLVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH TOO MUCH MODEL
SEPARATION AND INCONSISTENCY TO LEAN INTO THIS YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  55  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         78  56  79  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  56  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  57  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   77  57  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  61  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          80  61  81  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     82  64  84  63  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
833
FXUS64 KLUB 260928 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. MOST MODELS SHOW A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB KEEPING THE REGION STRONGLY
CAPPED. FURTHERMORE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEAR ZERO DUE TO
THE SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST TTU WRF MODEL RUN HAS ALSO COME
IN LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONVECTION. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM AT MID LEVELS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. SOME SIGNALS FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOW UP IN MODELS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES MAY BE LOW AT THE MOMENT WITH FURTHER
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN OPEN WAVE
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP BREAK THROUGH THE JUMBLED WEAK TROUGH/RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED RECENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAVE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL ENHANCE THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES
ALONG A DRY-LINE NEAR WESTERN BORDER LATE MONDAY AND MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY. CAPPING ISSUES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR THIS SO CANNOT
ALTER MUCH THE PREVIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS. BUT...WITH IMPROVED SHEAR
AND EXPECTED MODERATE CAPE LEVELS WE ANTICIPATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY IN OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST
ZONES.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE SLIM THUNDER OPPORTUNITY EXISTS MAINLY SATURDAY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS RETURN THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING SATURDAY BEFORE MAXING
ON SUNDAY SUPPORT DRYING TREND ALOFT. HPC HAS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES
OUR AREA SATURDAY AS DEVELOPED FROM THEIR OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE BLEND
AND APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT BLENDED WITH GFS...
WHILE OUR FAVOR IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RESTRICTIVE WRF/NAM
SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. SO WE HAVE RETAINED A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE GRADUAL DRYING EVENT UNFOLDS...THEN AN EVENTUAL
COOLING EXPECTED EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR LATE THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO VARYING DEGREE AND AT DIFFERENT
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT. SHARPER AND SLOWER TROUGH PER ECMWF
MIGHT INVOLVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH TOO MUCH MODEL
SEPARATION AND INCONSISTENCY TO LEAN INTO THIS YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  55  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         78  56  79  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  56  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  57  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   77  57  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  61  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          80  61  81  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     82  64  84  63  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
438
FXUS64 KLUB 260925
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITIES ARE
ONLY PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. MOST MODELS SHOW A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB KEEPING THE REGION STRONGLY
CAPPED. FURTHERMORE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEAR ZERO DUE TO
THE SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST TTU WRF MODEL RUN HAS ALSO COME
IN LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONVECTION. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM AT MID LEVELS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. SOME SIGNALS FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOW UP IN MODELS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES MAY BE LOW AT THE MOMENT WITH FURTHER
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN OPEN WAVE
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP BREAK THROUGH THE JUMBLED WEAK TROUGH/RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED RECENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAVE PASSAGE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL ENHANCE THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY NOR THEN ZONES
ALONG A DRY-LINE NEAR WESTERN BORDER LATE MONDAY AND MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. CAPPING ISSUES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR THIS SO
CANNOT ALTER MUCH THE PREVIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS. BUT...WITH
IMPROVED SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODERATE CAPE LEVELS WE ANTICIPATE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
IN OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST ZONES.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE SLIM THUNDER OPPORTUNITY EXISTS MAINLY SATURDAY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD CONTINUE ITS RETURN THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING SATURDAY BEFORE
MAXING ON SUNDAY SUPPORT THE DRYING TREND ALOFT. HPC HAS INDICATED
RAIN CHANCES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS DEVELOPED FROM THEIR OPERATIONAL
ENSEMBLE BLEND AND APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT
BLENDED WITH GFS...WHILE OUR FAVOR IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE
RESTRICTIVE WRF/NAM SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. SO WE HAVE RETAINED A
DRY SATURDAY FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE GRADUAL DRYING EVENT UNFOLDS...THEN AN EVENTUAL
COOLING EXPECTED EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR LATE THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO VARYING DEGREE AND DIFFERENT
DAYS ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT. SHARPER AND SLOWER TROUGH PER ECMWF
MIGHT INVOLVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH TOO MUCH MODEL
SEPARATION AND INCONSISTENCY TO LEAN INTO THIS YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  55  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         78  56  79  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  56  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  57  78  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   77  57  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  58  79  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  61  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          80  61  81  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     82  64  84  63  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
364
FXUS64 KLUB 260429
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NEAR EUNICE...TO AROUND SEMINOLE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND COULD PERHAPS AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL LIKE STAY DRY. STILL...WE DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z
GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY QUITE LOW. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WHETHER SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT REMAINS A QUESTION
MARK AND THE LIMITING FACTOR ON FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAM...HRRR AND RAP ALL INDICATE AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY DENSE...TOWARD DAWN ON THE
CAP. HENCE...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED A PATCHY FOG MENTION
IN THE 9-15Z TIME-FRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KLBB...WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN. EVEN IF A
SHOWER DOES MANAGE TO GET OVER KLBB /WHICH IS A LOW PROBABILITY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST. OF A GREATER CONCERN IS
THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR SOON ENOUGH
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KLBB...BUT THE LATEST SIGNALS ARE STRONGER
AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE
IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT KLBB...SO THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING HOURS. FURTHER EAST AT
KCDS...WARMER AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FOG AT
BAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. ANY FOG AT KLBB SHOULD
QUICKLY THIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FINALLY...ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SMALL MID-LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SW ACROSS SE NM.
THIS CIRCULATION HAS MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
SPLNS MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
WEAKENING TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
COOL...NAMELY MID 60S SW TO NEAR 80 EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COOL
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A MID-LVL COOL POCKET THAT MIGHT
SUPPORT MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
APPROACH 80F. IN ADDITION...HIGHER UP AT THE JET STEAM LEVEL A SHEAR
AXIS MAY SUPPLY SOME DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE RESULT IS THAT WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOCUSED ON THE WRN AND SRN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE DEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THIS WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND DUE MORE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
NOT THE RAINFALL RATES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OUT WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL DECREASING TREND.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY INTO SW TX...BUT N-NE
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.
IN ADDITION...A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BE MOVING TO THE W-NW
ACROSS TX AND MAY NUDGE INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND THE LINGERING
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO GIN UP A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD WARM UP A BIT BUT REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
RECENT LIGHT FLOW REGIME REMAINS ON TRACK TO AMPLIFY BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY
FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CHANGE IS A DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS
WAVE JOGS EAST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...RISING HEIGHTS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SRN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY RID US OF AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS OCCUPIED THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK. UNTIL
THIS RIDGE REACHES OUR AREA...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ON SAT UNDER A DECAYING IMPULSE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
AROUND SWRN TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER ARE QUITE LACKLUSTER WITH
BOTH LIFT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SO WE ARE CHOOSING TO OMIT
PRECIP MENTION ON SAT ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BY SUN AND A VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST WILL GIVE RISE TO A CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP ANY BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WELL SHY OF THEIR
LFC HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE PROMISING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL
OF CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH. DESPITE THE CORE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET
MAXIMA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING DRYLINE FIT OUR PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR SOME PRECIP...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH NEAREST THE CORE OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS.
GFS AND ECM ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE EJECTING WAVE BY MON NIGHT...SO POPS WERE RAISED
MODESTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH LOOK TO
MAKE A GOOD SHOWING...SO SEVERE TSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MODELS DO DIVERGE BY TUE WITH THE FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE STABLE WITH S/W RIDGING WHILE
THE GFS DEEPENS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. THE THEME FOR A COUPLE
DAYS NOW HAS BEEN FOR A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW FOR TUE-THU...SO
WE WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ECM/S CHANGE OF HEART AND KEEP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN OSCILLATING
DRYLINE. THIS STORY COULD REPEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A DRIER AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE POSITION MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AFTER TUE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER THEREAFTER AND NOW DELAY A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WINDOW /I.E. NEXT THU/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  55  76  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         54  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     55  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  57  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       56  76  57  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   56  76  59  77  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  77  59  77  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     59  83  61  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  61  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  82  62  82  62 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
499
FXUS64 KLUB 252338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.AVIATION...
WE HAVE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF KLBB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION OF THE
CONVECTION WAS SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST...THOUGH A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THIS...KLBB WILL LIKELY STAY DRY...THOUGH A SHOWER IMPACT IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
LESS QUESTION AT KCDS...WHERE A DRY NIGHT IS VERY LIKELY. TOMORROW
COULD BRING A LITTLE CONVECTION BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SMALL MID-LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SW ACROSS SE NM.
THIS CIRCULATION HAS MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
SPLNS MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
WEAKENING TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
COOL...NAMELY MID 60S SW TO NEAR 80 EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COOL
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A MID-LVL COOL POCKET THAT MIGHT
SUPPORT MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
APPROACH 80F. IN ADDITION...HIGHER UP AT THE JET STEAM LEVEL A SHEAR
AXIS MAY SUPPLY SOME DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE RESULT IS THAT WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOCUSED ON THE WRN AND SRN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE DEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THIS WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND DUE MORE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
NOT THE RAINFALL RATES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OUT WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL DECREASING TREND.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY INTO SW TX...BUT N-NE
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.
IN ADDITION...A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BE MOVING TO THE W-NW
ACROSS TX AND MAY NUDGE INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND THE LINGERING
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO GIN UP A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD WARM UP A BIT BUT REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
RECENT LIGHT FLOW REGIME REMAINS ON TRACK TO AMPLIFY BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY
FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CHANGE IS A DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS
WAVE JOGS EAST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...RISING HEIGHTS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SRN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY RID US OF AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS OCCUPIED THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK. UNTIL
THIS RIDGE REACHES OUR AREA...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ON SAT UNDER A DECAYING IMPULSE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
AROUND SWRN TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER ARE QUITE LACKLUSTER WITH
BOTH LIFT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SO WE ARE CHOOSING TO OMIT
PRECIP MENTION ON SAT ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BY SUN AND A VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST WILL GIVE RISE TO A CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP ANY BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WELL SHY OF THEIR
LFC HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE PROMISING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL
OF CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH. DESPITE THE CORE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET
MAXIMA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING DRYLINE FIT OUR PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR SOME PRECIP...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH NEAREST THE CORE OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS.
GFS AND ECM ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE EJECTING WAVE BY MON NIGHT...SO POPS WERE RAISED
MODESTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH LOOK TO
MAKE A GOOD SHOWING...SO SEVERE TSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MODELS DO DIVERGE BY TUE WITH THE FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE STABLE WITH S/W RIDGING WHILE
THE GFS DEEPENS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. THE THEME FOR A COUPLE
DAYS NOW HAS BEEN FOR A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW FOR TUE-THU...SO
WE WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ECM/S CHANGE OF HEART AND KEEP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN OSCILLATING
DRYLINE. THIS STORY COULD REPEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A DRIER AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE POSITION MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AFTER TUE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER THEREAFTER AND NOW DELAY A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WINDOW /I.E. NEXT THU/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  55  76  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         54  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     55  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  57  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       56  76  57  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   56  76  59  77  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  77  59  77  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     59  83  61  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  61  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  82  62  82  62 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
753
FXUS64 KLUB 252056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SMALL MID-LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SW ACROSS SE NM.
THIS CIRCULATION HAS MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
SPLNS MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
WEAKENING TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
COOL...NAMELY MID 60S SW TO NEAR 80 EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COOL
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A MID-LVL COOL POCKET THAT MIGHT
SUPPORT MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
APPROACH 80F. IN ADDITION...HIGHER UP AT THE JET STEAM LEVEL A SHEAR
AXIS MAY SUPPLY SOME DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE RESULT IS THAT WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOCUSED ON THE WRN AND SRN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE DEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THIS WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND DUE MORE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
NOT THE RAINFALL RATES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OUT WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL DECREASING TREND.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY INTO SW TX...BUT N-NE
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.
IN ADDITION...A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BE MOVING TO THE W-NW
ACROSS TX AND MAY NUDGE INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND THE LINGERING
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO GIN UP A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD WARM UP A BIT BUT REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RECENT LIGHT FLOW REGIME REMAINS ON TRACK TO AMPLIFY BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY
FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CHANGE IS A DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS
WAVE JOGS EAST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...RISING HEIGHTS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SRN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY RID US OF AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS OCCUPIED THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK. UNTIL
THIS RIDGE REACHES OUR AREA...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ON SAT UNDER A DECAYING IMPULSE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
AROUND SWRN TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER ARE QUITE LACKLUSTER WITH
BOTH LIFT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SO WE ARE CHOOSING TO OMIT
PRECIP MENTION ON SAT ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BY SUN AND A VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST WILL GIVE RISE TO A CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP ANY BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WELL SHY OF THEIR
LFC HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE PROMISING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL
OF CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH. DESPITE THE CORE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET
MAXIMA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING DRYLINE FIT OUR PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR SOME PRECIP...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH NEAREST THE CORE OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS.
GFS AND ECM ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE EJECTING WAVE BY MON NIGHT...SO POPS WERE RAISED
MODESTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH LOOK TO
MAKE A GOOD SHOWING...SO SEVERE TSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MODELS DO DIVERGE BY TUE WITH THE FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE STABLE WITH S/W RIDGING WHILE
THE GFS DEEPENS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. THE THEME FOR A COUPLE
DAYS NOW HAS BEEN FOR A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW FOR TUE-THU...SO
WE WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ECM/S CHANGE OF HEART AND KEEP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN OSCILLATING
DRYLINE. THIS STORY COULD REPEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A DRIER AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE POSITION MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AFTER TUE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER THEREAFTER AND NOW DELAY A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WINDOW /I.E. NEXT THU/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  76  55  76  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         54  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     55  77  56  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  57  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       56  76  57  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   56  76  59  77  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  77  59  77  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     59  83  61  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  61  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  82  62  82  62 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
674
FXUS64 KLUB 251725 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB BETWEEN ABOUT 18
UTC AND 23 UTC...WHICH COULD BRING SOME BRIEF VSBY AND CEILING
REDUCTIONS DUE TO MODERATE RAIN. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS COCHRAN AND
YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WHICH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WRN AND SRN SPLNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE UPPED POPS IN THAT
AREA AND LOWERED THEM ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW HAS EDGED JUST FAR WEST ENOUGH OF KLBB PROBABLY TO KEEP
SHOWERS OUT OF TERMINAL THIS MORNING AT LEAST. MOST SOLUTIONS
STILL BREAK OUT AFTERNOON -TSRA NEARBY IF NOT DIRECTLY OVER KLBB
SO WILL ADD A PROB 30 GROUP FOR KLBB. AFTER SO MUCH RAIN LAST NIGHT...
LIGHT FOG AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WELL THIS MORNING
THOUGH CANNOT FIND GOOD SUPPORT FOR A SOLID LOW CLOUD LAYER. KCDS
APPEARS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THUNDER CHANCES TODAY WITH VFR
DOMINATING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR EUNICE-JAL BY
00Z. DEFORMATION MAXIMUM ALSO NEAR LUBBOCK SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES TODAY...THEN LIMITED CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 500 TO
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...THOUGH AS HIGH AS 1500 JOULES COULD DEVELOP
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSOLATION. WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE LEVEL
OF STORM INTENSITY THAT RESULTED WEDNESDAY THOUGH BELIEVE THE RICH
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD A FEW DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS MINOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WE ALSO WE DO NOT NECESSARILY THINK THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING GUN AS YESTERDAY...
SHOULD BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST. BUYING INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES WESTERN ZONES GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THOUGH THIS
IS DIFFICULT TO READ AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOWNWARD PULSE THIS MORNING BEFORE FLARING BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ROLLING PLAINS TODAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS MAY IMPROVE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
THOUGH DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SLUGGISH UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS-PECOS...HELPING TO USHER UPPER 50/NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
LOBE OF ENERGY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR ASPERMONT SHOW CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS...BUT
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...CREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOCALLY AS THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY BEFORE THE WEST COAST
LOW BARRELS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT TAKES ON A POSITIVE
TILT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO EMBED WEST TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH DRYLINE FORMATION IN VICINITY OF
THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIME OF
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.

THE DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. VERY WELL COULD SEE EXTENDED STORM
CHANCES WITH A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY WEEK/S END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  76  55  77  56 /  20  10  10  10   0
TULIA         53  77  56  78  57 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  77  56  78  57 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  76  57  78  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  76  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  76  59  78  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  77  59  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  82  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  79  61  81  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  82  62  83  62 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
242
FXUS64 KLUB 251548 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS COCHRAN AND
YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WHICH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WRN AND SRN SPLNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE UPPED POPS IN THAT
AREA AND LOWERED THEM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW HAS EDGED JUST FAR WEST ENOUGH OF KLBB PROBABLY TO KEEP
SHOWERS OUT OF TERMINAL THIS MORNING AT LEAST. MOST SOLUTIONS
STILL BREAK OUT AFTERNOON -TSRA NEARBY IF NOT DIRECTLY OVER KLBB
SO WILL ADD A PROB 30 GROUP FOR KLBB. AFTER SO MUCH RAIN LAST NIGHT...
LIGHT FOG AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WELL THIS MORNING
THOUGH CANNOT FIND GOOD SUPPORT FOR A SOLID LOW CLOUD LAYER. KCDS
APPEARS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THUNDER CHANCES TODAY WITH VFR
DOMINATING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR EUNICE-JAL BY
00Z. DEFORMATION MAXIMUM ALSO NEAR LUBBOCK SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES TODAY...THEN LIMITED CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 500 TO
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...THOUGH AS HIGH AS 1500 JOULES COULD DEVELOP
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSOLATION. WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE LEVEL
OF STORM INTENSITY THAT RESULTED WEDNESDAY THOUGH BELIEVE THE RICH
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD A FEW DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS MINOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WE ALSO WE DO NOT NECESSARILY THINK THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING GUN AS YESTERDAY...
SHOULD BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST. BUYING INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES WESTERN ZONES GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THOUGH THIS
IS DIFFICULT TO READ AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOWNWARD PULSE THIS MORNING BEFORE FLARING BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ROLLING PLAINS TODAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS MAY IMPROVE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
THOUGH DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SLUGGISH UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS-PECOS...HELPING TO USHER UPPER 50/NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
LOBE OF ENERGY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR ASPERMONT SHOW CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS...BUT
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...CREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOCALLY AS THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY BEFORE THE WEST COAST
LOW BARRELS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT TAKES ON A POSITIVE
TILT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO EMBED WEST TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH DRYLINE FORMATION IN VICINITY OF
THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIME OF
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.

THE DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. VERY WELL COULD SEE EXTENDED STORM
CHANCES WITH A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY WEEK/S END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  53  76  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
TULIA         78  53  77  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  53  77  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     77  55  76  57  78 /  60  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  55  76  57  78 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   78  57  76  59  78 /  70  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  57  77  59  78 /  60  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  58  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          82  58  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     83  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
242
FXUS64 KLUB 251548 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS COCHRAN AND
YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WHICH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WRN AND SRN SPLNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE UPPED POPS IN THAT
AREA AND LOWERED THEM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW HAS EDGED JUST FAR WEST ENOUGH OF KLBB PROBABLY TO KEEP
SHOWERS OUT OF TERMINAL THIS MORNING AT LEAST. MOST SOLUTIONS
STILL BREAK OUT AFTERNOON -TSRA NEARBY IF NOT DIRECTLY OVER KLBB
SO WILL ADD A PROB 30 GROUP FOR KLBB. AFTER SO MUCH RAIN LAST NIGHT...
LIGHT FOG AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WELL THIS MORNING
THOUGH CANNOT FIND GOOD SUPPORT FOR A SOLID LOW CLOUD LAYER. KCDS
APPEARS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THUNDER CHANCES TODAY WITH VFR
DOMINATING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR EUNICE-JAL BY
00Z. DEFORMATION MAXIMUM ALSO NEAR LUBBOCK SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES TODAY...THEN LIMITED CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 500 TO
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...THOUGH AS HIGH AS 1500 JOULES COULD DEVELOP
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSOLATION. WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE LEVEL
OF STORM INTENSITY THAT RESULTED WEDNESDAY THOUGH BELIEVE THE RICH
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD A FEW DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS MINOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WE ALSO WE DO NOT NECESSARILY THINK THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING GUN AS YESTERDAY...
SHOULD BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST. BUYING INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES WESTERN ZONES GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THOUGH THIS
IS DIFFICULT TO READ AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOWNWARD PULSE THIS MORNING BEFORE FLARING BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ROLLING PLAINS TODAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS MAY IMPROVE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
THOUGH DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SLUGGISH UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS-PECOS...HELPING TO USHER UPPER 50/NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
LOBE OF ENERGY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR ASPERMONT SHOW CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS...BUT
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...CREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOCALLY AS THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY BEFORE THE WEST COAST
LOW BARRELS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT TAKES ON A POSITIVE
TILT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO EMBED WEST TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH DRYLINE FORMATION IN VICINITY OF
THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIME OF
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.

THE DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. VERY WELL COULD SEE EXTENDED STORM
CHANCES WITH A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY WEEK/S END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  53  76  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
TULIA         78  53  77  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  53  77  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     77  55  76  57  78 /  60  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  55  76  57  78 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   78  57  76  59  78 /  70  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  57  77  59  78 /  60  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  58  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          82  58  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     83  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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