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766
FXUS64 KLUB 240938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS SEEN ACROSS ERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
PASSED THERE. SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURE RISES DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FURTHER DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE RISES MOVING SWD. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED REALM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND UNDERGOES
SLOW FILLING. ALREADY BY FRIDAY...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOUND ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HELP DEFINE A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LARGELY SCANT INSTABILITY FROM THIS PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS STORY SHOULD CHANGE BY SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ARE FELT OVER THE WHOLE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONCERN SAT AFTN IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEP MIXING ALONE ON THE
DRYLINE IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
MAINTAIN STORMS. IDEALLY WE PREFER TO SEE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OR
OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS BY 00Z THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A LOW-END COVERAGE OF
STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. AM BIASING THE AFTERNOON/S DRYLINE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE GIVEN BACKING UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND PRESSURE
FALLS BULLSEYEING TO OUR WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE BETTER BET FOR STORMS SHOULD EMERGE SAT NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS NEAR/ONTO THE CAPROCK AND COLLIDES WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT. THESE SETUPS ARE NOT ALWAYS A GUARANTEE THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT CONSIDERING WE HAVE A DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
ALONG WITH RICH PWATS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE PROS OUTWEIGH THE
CONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONG /IF NOT SEVERE/ NOCTURNAL STORMS. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT DARE RETREAT THE DRYLINE
AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WE NEED ONLY LOOK
BACK TO THE EVENING OF 4/14/2012 WHEN THE GFS AND NAM FAILED
MISERABLY TO ANTICIPATE A STRONG WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO
TREND WINDS HIGHER BY SUN AFTN...BUT THESE SPEEDS ARE STILL SHORT
OF THE STRONGEST VALUES PROGGED BY MEX. THE WEAKER ECMWF MOS WOULD
BE NICE IF IT VERIFIED...BUT THE PATTERN OF A DEEPENING LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HIGH WIND
CRITERIA MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 700MB AND 500MB AVERAGE JET
CORES ARE NOT ENTIRELY UP TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 60 KNOT AND 100 KNOT
SPEEDS WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR...BUT THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL
IN THIS REGARD AND SUGGESTS OUR NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE. BLOWING DUST IS A GIVEN REGARDLESS
OF WHAT MODEL ONE USES. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THEN VEERS NORTHERLY
BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW...BUT WE/RE NOT
YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS FROM MON-WED...SO A BREEZY COMPROMISE WITH THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  45  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  44  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  48  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  50  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  50  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  50  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  51  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  52  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     80  50  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
343
FXUS64 KLUB 240456
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE
VEERING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  77  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
725
FXUS64 KLUB 240247 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31
302
FXUS64 KLUB 232343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

33
269
FXUS64 KLUB 232046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  77  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/01
567
FXUS64 KLUB 231645
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.UPDATE...
A FEW COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FCST THIS MORNING THOUGH THE
GENERAL THINKING REMAINS INTACT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WAS SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...HAS SLOWED THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
REMAINS WELL INTO NEW MEXICO AS OF 16Z. THAT SAID...PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH SHARPLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS AT RUIDOSO AND
ALAMOGORDO. STILL EXPECT THE THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY MIX
OUT AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD RACE
QUICKLY TO NEAR THE I27 CORRIDOR BY 1PM WITH INITIATION MOST
LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF THINNING OF
THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE WARMING...THE CLOUD CONVEYOR SHOULD THIN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND PROMOTE CLEARING. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO TIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE DOMINANT THREAT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ADVERTISE GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH PLUS MAINLY EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THE RISK IS TOO
CONDITIONAL TO MENTION ATTM. FINALLY...AND ISOLATE TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST UP INVOF KCDS AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRIES
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A TORNADO APPEARS RATHER LOW.

OUT WEST...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST BEHIND THE
DRYLINE.

BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY/S SYSTEM. WATCH
WHERE THE DRYLINE MAKES IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ROLLING
PLAINS/SERN PANHANDLE STILL HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING
SEVERE.


&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSTM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. GREATEST TSTM RISK APPEARS TO BE JUST
EAST OF KLBB ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS. THAT
SAID...SUBSTANTIVE PROGRESS SHOULD BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE DRYLINE APPROACHING KLBB BY AROUND 18Z.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/99/26
074
FXUS64 KLUB 231130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE TO SHIFT TO A POSITION BTWN KLBB AND KCDS THIS AFTN. EAST
OF IT...PARTICULARLY ERN PANHANDLE...WILL BE CHANCE FOR TSRA
WORTHY OF A PROB30 AT KCDS ATTM. WEST OF THE DRYLINE WINDS WILL
VEER TO SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20G30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07
636
FXUS64 KLUB 230955 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93
505
FXUS64 KLUB 230900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT. FOR THOSE
WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT 4/14/2012...SUCH A SCENARIO WAS
REALIZED MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATED WHICH CAUGHT
MANY FORECASTERS BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS
TIME AROUND...SO WE CAN/T ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE DRIER AND
WARMER WAS THE ACTUAL RESULT. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW
FLOW THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND
FILLS TO OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO
ITS ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93
824
FXUS64 KLUB 230448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS TAF FORECAST. A WEAK
-TSRA OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT VERY UNLIKELY...IN THE VICINITY
OF EITHER TERMINAL EARLY WED MORNING LIKELY HAVING MINIMAL
AVIATION IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF TSRA AT KLBB FROM
ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT KCDS FROM ABOUT 21 TO
05 UTC. TSRA COULD BE STRONG IN THE KCDS AREA. A STRONG LOW-LVL
JET EARLY WED MORNING WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR SO
THROUGH ABOUT 12 UTC. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33
498
FXUS64 KLUB 222337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33
437
FXUS64 KLUB 222048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

26/01
592
FXUS64 KLUB 221726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NM
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE LINE. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH 35 KT LLJ. AT THIS POINT...DOES
NOT APPEAR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY FOR LLWS
MENTION. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED BEYOND 18Z MAINLY EAST OF KLBB WITH
SVR THREAT POSSIBLE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

99/99/26
398
FXUS64 KLUB 221141 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL
START OUT OF THE EAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93/14
281
FXUS64 KLUB 220942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93
978
FXUS64 KLUB 220441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. THESE HAVE DONE WELL JUST TO ARRIVE WITHIN A FAIRLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SO HAVE EARNED
AMENDED FORECAST STATUS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  80  55  81  45 /  20   0  10  10  10
TULIA         51  80  56  83  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  80  58  84  49 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  82  58  85  48 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  82  59  86  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  84  60  84  51 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  83  60  86  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  83  54  86  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          56  84  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
733
FXUS64 KLUB 220056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
756 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. THESE HAVE DONE WELL JUST TO ARRIVE WITHIN A FAIRLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SO HAVE EARNED
AMENDED FORECAST STATUS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  80  55  81  45 /  20   0  10  10  10
TULIA         51  80  56  83  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  80  58  84  49 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  82  58  85  48 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  82  59  86  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  84  60  84  51 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  83  60  86  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  83  54  86  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          56  84  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99
781
FXUS64 KLUB 212304
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  80  55  81  45 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         51  80  56  83  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  80  58  84  49 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  82  58  85  48 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  82  59  86  51 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  84  60  84  51 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  83  60  86  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  83  54  86  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          56  84  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
249
FXUS64 KLUB 212112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  80  53  85  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         50  80  56  83  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  81  57  85  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     53  83  58  86  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       54  83  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  82  61  86  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  82  60  87  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  84  58  88  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          55  83  58  88  59 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  87  60  89  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16
250
FXUS64 KLUB 212057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN IDEAL UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALHOUGH IT
IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND WIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  80  53  85  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         50  80  56  83  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  81  57  85  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     53  83  58  86  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       54  83  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  82  61  86  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  82  60  87  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  84  58  88  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          55  83  58  88  59 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  87  60  89  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16
755
FXUS64 KLUB 211753 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1253 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLD T-STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WHILE A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT
AND FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA SHOW ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
IMPROVING...YET MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WITHOUT ANY BOUNDARIES TO
CONCENTRATE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTING SOME SPOTTY STORMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE GENERALLY TO THE S-SE. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE KCDS AREA BUT
WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC. THERE IS
A SLIM CHANCE OF A -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. NRLY BREEZES WILL
RELAX LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AT LBB...BUT CDS WILL HAVE AT LEAST FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR
BEFORE LOW CIGS AND FOG CLEAR OUT. EXPECT LIGHT WLY WINDS TO VEER
NLY BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SEVERE CONVECTION WAS PUSHING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING
FOR TOMORROW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT
THE NEAREST COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CO AND NWRN KS WILL FALL SHORT
OF OUR DOORSTEPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TUG SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISMISS SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS THIS
AFTN. RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO OVERWHELM ANY ATTEMPTS AT HIGH BASED
CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN THIS
OTHERWISE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS
TODAY WAS TO COOL OFF PARTS OF OUR NERN COUNTIES FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY/S RECORD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD AND WIND RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE DRYLINE
POSITION THROUGH THE DAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING PRETTY CLOSE TO I-27/US-87 OR AN
AMARILLO...LUBBOCK...TO MIDLAND LINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM 12 HAS
THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE POCKET OF LOW-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN ANY STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING BUT THERE STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL BE DRY AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEN PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
IN PLACE.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND NEEDED A CLOSE LOOK AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN BROUGHT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN STALLED IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SWINGS OUT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PAINT A MUCH
DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ON MONDAY...A SLOSHING DRYLINE AT THE SURFACE WITH POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE...OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  49  80  53  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
TULIA         78  50  80  56  83 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     79  51  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     81  53  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       83  54  83  58  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   82  54  82  61  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  54  82  60  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     81  55  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  30
SPUR          84  55  83  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  60  89 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
680
FXUS64 KLUB 211108
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT LBB...BUT CDS WILL HAVE AT LEAST FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR
BEFORE LOW CIGS AND FOG CLEAR OUT. EXPECT LIGHT WLY WINDS TO VEER
NLY BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SEVERE CONVECTION WAS PUSHING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING
FOR TOMORROW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT
THE NEAREST COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CO AND NWRN KS WILL FALL SHORT
OF OUR DOORSTEPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TUG SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISMISS SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS THIS
AFTN. RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO OVERWHELM ANY ATTEMPTS AT HIGH BASED
CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN THIS
OTHERWISE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS
TODAY WAS TO COOL OFF PARTS OF OUR NERN COUNTIES FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY/S RECORD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD AND WIND RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE DRYLINE
POSITION THROUGH THE DAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING PRETTY CLOSE TO I-27/US-87 OR AN
AMARILLO...LUBBOCK...TO MIDLAND LINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM 12 HAS
THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE POCKET OF LOW-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN ANY STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING BUT THERE STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL BE DRY AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEN PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
IN PLACE.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND NEEDED A CLOSE LOOK AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN BROUGHT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN STALLED IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SWINGS OUT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PAINT A MUCH
DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ON MONDAY...A SLOSHING DRYLINE AT THE SURFACE WITH POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE...OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  49  80  53  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
TULIA         78  50  80  56  83 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     79  51  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     81  53  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       83  54  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   82  54  82  61  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  54  82  60  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     81  55  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  30
SPUR          84  55  83  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  60  89 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
140
FXUS64 KLUB 210941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
441 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SEVERE CONVECTION WAS PUSHING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING
FOR TOMORROW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT
THE NEAREST COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CO AND NWRN KS WILL FALL SHORT
OF OUR DOORSTEPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TUG SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISMISS SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS THIS
AFTN. RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO OVERWHELM ANY ATTEMPTS AT HIGH BASED
CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN THIS
OTHERWISE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS
TODAY WAS TO COOL OFF PARTS OF OUR NERN COUNTIES FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY/S RECORD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD AND WIND RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE DRYLINE
POSITION THROUGH THE DAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING PRETTY CLOSE TO I-27/US-87 OR AN
AMARILLO...LUBBOCK...TO MIDLAND LINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM 12 HAS
THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE POCKET OF LOW-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN ANY STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING BUT THERE STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL BE DRY AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEN PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
IN PLACE.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND NEEDED A CLOSE LOOK AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN BROUGHT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN STALLED IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SWINGS OUT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PAINT A MUCH
DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ON MONDAY...A SLOSHING DRYLINE AT THE SURFACE WITH POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE...OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  49  80  53  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
TULIA         78  50  80  56  83 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     79  51  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     81  53  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       83  54  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   82  54  82  61  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  54  82  60  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     81  55  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  30
SPUR          84  55  83  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  60  89 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
936
FXUS64 KLUB 210441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER JUST ABOUT TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...
CERTAINLY FINISHED AT BOTH TEMINALS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
SPAWNED THEM SHIFTS EWD INTO OKLAHOMA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ERN PANHANDLE WITH SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE WHERE CIRRUS HAS CLEARED.
COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR...IF NOT IFR...CIGS AT KCDS BEFORE
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD 13Z. ON THE CAPROCK AT KLBB WINDS
ALREADY FROM THE WEST WITH MODEST DRY ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ATTM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER UNDERNEATH IT. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z. THREAT OF THUNDER AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
NON-ZERO BUT NOT BIG ENOUGH TO RUN WITH A PREVAILING OR TEMPO
GROUP ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD
12Z...AGAIN THE CHANCE OF WHICH IS TOO SMALL TO INSERT MENTION
INTO EITHER TAF. FINALLY...WIND SWITCH TO NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  51  79  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         51  76  50  80  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  51  81  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  80  54  82  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  81  56  81  60 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  82  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  56  83  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  82  56  82  57 /  50  10   0   0   0
SPUR          58  83  57  82  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  85  58  83  61 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
864
FXUS64 KLUB 202324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ATTM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER UNDERNEATH IT. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z. THREAT OF THUNDER AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
NON-ZERO BUT NOT BIG ENOUGH TO RUN WITH A PREVAILING OR TEMPO
GROUP ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD
12Z...AGAIN THE CHANCE OF WHICH IS TOO SMALL TO INSERT MENTION
INTO EITHER TAF. FINALLY...WIND SWITCH TO NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  51  79  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         51  76  50  80  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  51  81  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  80  54  82  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  81  56  81  60 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  82  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  56  83  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  82  56  82  57 /  50  10   0   0   0
SPUR          58  83  57  82  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  85  58  83  61 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
073
FXUS64 KLUB 202037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  51  79  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         51  76  50  80  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  51  81  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  80  54  82  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  82  56  81  60 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  82  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  56  83  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  82  56  82  57 /  50  10   0   0   0
SPUR          58  83  57  82  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  85  58  83  61 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33
177
FXUS64 KLUB 201725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AFTER 18Z WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF LBB BY
20Z AND WILL PUSH THROUGH BY 23Z WHICH IS REPRESENTED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS CDS BY
THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING WHILE STILL HAVING A CHANCE FROM
BECOMING SEVERE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN TIMING OF THE DRYLINE
SO I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CDS. BOTH TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NEEDED WHEN STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS DURING THE MORNING SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE COMPLETE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. 09Z SURFACE MAP REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN NM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A RATHER
WEARY AND TIRED UPPER TROUGH. 00Z RAOBS STILL HINTED AT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT 700MB...BUT AS A WHOLE THIS WAVE HAS LOST ITS
VIGOR. DESPITE THIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS A GOOD BET THIS
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW VORT LOBES OVER SOUTHERN
NM THAT SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
DISCUSSED EARLIER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME
BY.

MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE HWY 385 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
REALIZED UNDER A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. NEGLIGIBLE
CAPPING DOES LOOK GOOD FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE CERTAINLY LOOKS TO FAVOR OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE 700MB LOW. AFTERNOON POPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THIS IN MIND. ONCE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
THIS MORNING...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WELL SOUTH OF THE 700MB
LOW...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO TAPERS OFF IN THIS REGION. THIS
SUGGESTS MESSY/PULSY CELLS COULD DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND DISCRETE MODES POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.
LOCAL SEVERE WX ANALOGS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THESE SETUPS...BUT
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO FOSTER
SOME DOWNBURSTS. OPTED FOR SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS THIS IS
OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT OF THE SEASON. ANY CRITICS OF
THIS DECISION ARE REMINDED OF YESTERDAY/S BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL
IN SOUTHWEST LUBBOCK THAT OCCURRED UNDER MUCH LESS IDEAL CONDITIONS
THAN WE EXPECT TODAY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN OK AND NWRN
TX...LIKELY TAKING ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WITH IT.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS TODAY OTHER THAN SIDING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
NUMBERS IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND NUDGING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
OFFER NO MEANINGFUL COOLING AS WE MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG...BUT WE WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THE FOG THREAT FURTHER BEFORE ADDING ANY
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE
FRONT BUT IT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INDICATE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAK CAP WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE TTU WRF RUNS
HAVE SHOWN SPOTTY WEAK PRECIPITATION AND THIS HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH-BASED VIRGA OR PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH
THESE RUNS. HELD OFF PUTTING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT
DID INCREASE THEM TO JUST UNDER MENTION AT 14 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE
JUST ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MENTIONABLE POPS YET.

TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY
STILL REMAINS A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ACTIVE DRYLINE. STILL HAVE ALL THE SAME UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE...AND ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO HELP ERODE
A POTENTIAL CAP ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO PULL
THE DRYLINE A BIT FURTHER WEST ALLOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
REACH LUBBOCK AND OTHER CITIES ALONG I-27/US-87.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
PRODUCING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
DIRECTION...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
HELPING TO BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN FIGURING OUT WHAT
WILL HAPPEN AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS DOES NOT. GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
BACK UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
THE SLOSHING DRYLINE TO THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  49  76  49  79 /  20  10  10   0   0
TULIA         74  51  78  51  81 /  50  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  53  80  54  82 /  50  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  54  82  55  82 /  30  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       75  55  83  56  82 /  40  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   76  55  80  54  82 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  54  81  56  83 /  30  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  58  84  56  83 /  50  40  10   0   0
SPUR          74  58  85  58  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  60  87  57  83 /  40  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51
751
FXUS64 KLUB 201144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND THIN STRATUS NOW AT LBB WILL UNDERGO RAPID EROSION
AROUND 15Z...BUT CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO IFR UNTIL THEN.
GREATER CONCERN IS FOR SCT STRONG/SEVERE TSRA BY THIS AFTN FROM
LBB TO CDS AS AN UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVES AT PEAK HEATING. OPTED TO
DRAW ATTN TO THIS THREAT WITH A TEMPO FROM 20-23Z AT LBB AND A
PROB30 AT CDS BY 22Z. GR /HAIL 0.25 INCH OR GREATER/ WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE TSRA EXIT THE REGION
LATER THIS EVNG. MAY ALSO SEE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREATEN CDS
AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE COMPLETE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. 09Z SURFACE MAP REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN NM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A RATHER
WEARY AND TIRED UPPER TROUGH. 00Z RAOBS STILL HINTED AT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT 700MB...BUT AS A WHOLE THIS WAVE HAS LOST ITS
VIGOR. DESPITE THIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS A GOOD BET THIS
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW VORT LOBES OVER SOUTHERN
NM THAT SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
DISCUSSED EARLIER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME
BY.

MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE HWY 385 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
REALIZED UNDER A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. NEGLIGIBLE
CAPPING DOES LOOK GOOD FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE CERTAINLY LOOKS TO FAVOR OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE 700MB LOW. AFTERNOON POPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THIS IN MIND. ONCE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
THIS MORNING...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WELL SOUTH OF THE 700MB
LOW...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO TAPERS OFF IN THIS REGION. THIS
SUGGESTS MESSY/PULSY CELLS COULD DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND DISCRETE MODES POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.
LOCAL SEVERE WX ANALOGS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THESE SETUPS...BUT
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO FOSTER
SOME DOWNBURSTS. OPTED FOR SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS THIS IS
OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT OF THE SEASON. ANY CRITICS OF
THIS DECISION ARE REMINDED OF YESTERDAY/S BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL
IN SOUTHWEST LUBBOCK THAT OCCURRED UNDER MUCH LESS IDEAL CONDITIONS
THAN WE EXPECT TODAY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN OK AND NWRN
TX...LIKELY TAKING ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WITH IT.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS TODAY OTHER THAN SIDING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
NUMBERS IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND NUDGING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
OFFER NO MEANINGFUL COOLING AS WE MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG...BUT WE WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THE FOG THREAT FURTHER BEFORE ADDING ANY
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE
FRONT BUT IT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INDICATE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAK CAP WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE TTU WRF RUNS
HAVE SHOWN SPOTTY WEAK PRECIPITATION AND THIS HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH-BASED VIRGA OR PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH
THESE RUNS. HELD OFF PUTTING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT
DID INCREASE THEM TO JUST UNDER MENTION AT 14 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE
JUST ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MENTIONABLE POPS YET.

TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY
STILL REMAINS A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ACTIVE DRYLINE. STILL HAVE ALL THE SAME UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE...AND ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO HELP ERODE
A POTENTIAL CAP ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO PULL
THE DRYLINE A BIT FURTHER WEST ALLOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
REACH LUBBOCK AND OTHER CITIES ALONG I-27/US-87.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
PRODUCING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
DIRECTION...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
HELPING TO BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN FIGURING OUT WHAT
WILL HAPPEN AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS DOES NOT. GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
BACK UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
THE SLOSHING DRYLINE TO THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  49  76  49  79 /  20  10  10   0   0
TULIA         74  51  78  51  81 /  50  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  53  80  54  82 /  50  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  54  82  55  82 /  30  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       75  55  83  56  82 /  40  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   76  55  80  54  82 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  54  81  56  83 /  30  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  58  84  56  83 /  50  40  10   0   0
SPUR          74  58  85  58  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  60  87  57  83 /  40  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
177
FXUS64 KLUB 200945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE COMPLETE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. 09Z SURFACE MAP REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN NM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A RATHER
WEARY AND TIRED UPPER TROUGH. 00Z RAOBS STILL HINTED AT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT 700MB...BUT AS A WHOLE THIS WAVE HAS LOST ITS
VIGOR. DESPITE THIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS A GOOD BET THIS
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW VORT LOBES OVER SOUTHERN
NM THAT SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
DISCUSSED EARLIER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME
BY.

MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE HWY 385 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
REALIZED UNDER A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. NEGLIGIBLE
CAPPING DOES LOOK GOOD FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE CERTAINLY LOOKS TO FAVOR OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE 700MB LOW. AFTERNOON POPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THIS IN MIND. ONCE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
THIS MORNING...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WELL SOUTH OF THE 700MB
LOW...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO TAPERS OFF IN THIS REGION. THIS
SUGGESTS MESSY/PULSY CELLS COULD DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND DISCRETE MODES POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.
LOCAL SEVERE WX ANALOGS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THESE SETUPS...BUT
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO FOSTER
SOME DOWNBURSTS. OPTED FOR SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS THIS IS
OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT OF THE SEASON. ANY CRITICS OF
THIS DECISION ARE REMINDED OF YESTERDAY/S BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL
IN SOUTHWEST LUBBOCK THAT OCCURRED UNDER MUCH LESS IDEAL CONDITIONS
THAN WE EXPECT TODAY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN OK AND NWRN
TX...LIKELY TAKING ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WITH IT.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS TODAY OTHER THAN SIDING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
NUMBERS IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND NUDGING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
OFFER NO MEANINGFUL COOLING AS WE MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG...BUT WE WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THE FOG THREAT FURTHER BEFORE ADDING ANY
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE
FRONT BUT IT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INDICATE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAK CAP WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE TTU WRF RUNS
HAVE SHOWN SPOTTY WEAK PRECIPITATION AND THIS HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH-BASED VIRGA OR PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH
THESE RUNS. HELD OFF PUTTING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT
DID INCREASE THEM TO JUST UNDER MENTION AT 14 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE
JUST ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MENTIONABLE POPS YET.

TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY
STILL REMAINS A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ACTIVE DRYLINE. STILL HAVE ALL THE SAME UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE...AND ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO HELP ERODE
A POTENTIAL CAP ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO PULL
THE DRYLINE A BIT FURTHER WEST ALLOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
REACH LUBBOCK AND OTHER CITIES ALONG I-27/US-87.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
PRODUCING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
DIRECTION...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
HELPING TO BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN FIGURING OUT WHAT
WILL HAPPEN AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS DOES NOT. GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
BACK UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
THE SLOSHING DRYLINE TO THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  49  76  49  79 /  20  10  10   0   0
TULIA         74  51  78  51  81 /  50  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  53  80  54  82 /  50  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  54  82  55  82 /  30  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       75  55  83  56  82 /  40  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   76  55  80  54  82 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  54  81  56  83 /  30  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  58  84  56  83 /  50  40  10   0   0
SPUR          74  58  85  58  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  60  87  57  83 /  40  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
019
FXUS64 KLUB 200636 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
136 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT PRECIP MENTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOW A RAPIDLY DECAYING REGION OF SHOWERS FROM SNYDER TO
ASPERMONT COMPLETE WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION. WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL INDICATES MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING GRASP ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...SO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THIS SPREADS NEWD. NEAREST TSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE LOWER PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A
NEW COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. LASTLY...FOG MAY MAKE
AN APPEARANCE ON THE CAPROCK THRU DAYBREAK...BUT THINKING IS THAT
SWLY WINDS MAY SERIOUSLY HAMPER THIS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF AN
ISSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  77  49  81  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
TULIA         52  78  51  79  50 /  20  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  80  52  80  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  80  52  81  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  81  53  80  58 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  79  53  81  58 /  10  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    54  80  53  81  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  82  55  81  56 /  30  10  10   0   0
SPUR          59  84  55  81  60 /  20  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  85  56  82  61 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
832
FXUS64 KLUB 200430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ON A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE LATE
EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THIS EVENINGS PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH FURTHER WEST
TO KLBB COULD SEE SOME STORMS NEARBY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
OVERHEAD. STILL...CHANCES NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT TS
MENTION THERE BUT CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION AT KCDS.
AS FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY...00Z MODEL RUN BACKING OFF
THAT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AM
HESITANT TO REMOVE MENTION ATTM AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO TWEAK AS
TREND BECOMES CLEARER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADDRESS RECENT TRENDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS
TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z
TTU-WRF NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS COME OUT OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND INTO SRN HALF OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME IF
MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...AND THE RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED PRE-06Z POPS
FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND ADJUSTED 06Z-12Z POPS TO INCREASE KEEPING
SERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  77  49 /  40  20  10  10   0
TULIA         54  75  52  78  51 /  30  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     54  75  54  80  52 /  40  30  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     54  76  54  80  52 /  60  20  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  77  55  81  53 /  60  30  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  79  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  78  54  80  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     58  80  58  82  55 /  30  40  30  10  10
SPUR          57  79  59  84  55 /  50  40  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  79  60  85  56 /  50  40  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
367
FXUS64 KLUB 200309
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADDRESS RECENT TRENDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS
TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z
TTU-WRF NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS COME OUT OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND INTO SRN HALF OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME IF
MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...AND THE RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED PRE-06Z POPS
FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND ADJUSTED 06Z-12Z POPS TO INCREASE KEEPING
SERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  77  49 /  40  20  10  10   0
TULIA         54  75  52  78  51 /  30  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     54  75  54  80  52 /  40  30  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     54  76  54  80  52 /  60  20  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  77  55  81  53 /  60  30  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  79  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  78  54  80  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     58  80  58  82  55 /  30  40  30  10  10
SPUR          57  79  59  84  55 /  50  40  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  79  60  85  56 /  50  40  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
259
FXUS64 KLUB 192334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  77  49 /  60  20  10  10   0
TULIA         54  75  52  78  51 /  30  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     54  75  54  80  52 /  40  30  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     54  76  54  80  52 /  60  20  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  77  55  81  53 /  60  30  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  79  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  78  54  80  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     58  80  58  82  55 /  30  40  30  10  10
SPUR          57  79  59  84  55 /  30  40  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  79  60  85  56 /  30  40  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
337
FXUS64 KLUB 192041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  77  49 /  60  20  10  10   0
TULIA         54  75  52  78  51 /  30  30  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     54  75  54  80  52 /  40  30  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     54  76  54  80  52 /  60  20  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       57  77  55  81  53 /  60  30  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  78  55  79  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  78  54  80  53 /  60  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     58  80  58  82  55 /  30  40  30  10  10
SPUR          57  79  59  84  55 /  30  40  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  79  60  85  56 /  30  40  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33
290
FXUS64 KLUB 191722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT LBB BUT SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. CURRENT ONE MINUTE CIG SENSOR DATA SHOWS STEADILY
INCREASING CIGS CLOSE TO 3 KFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS STAYED WEST OF LBB AND CLOSE TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER MAY MAKE IT CLOSE TO LBB. I WILL
KEEP RA/TSRA OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE LOW
CERTAINTY THAT A SHOWER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. TSRA
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AT LBB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THE MOMENT. THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 21Z
TO 03Z. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

CDS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
SOMETIME TOMORROW IN THE EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33
708
FXUS64 KLUB 191126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT LBB LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THIS OCCURS THIS LAYER WILL BECOME VFR
BY 18Z. OTHER CONCERN AT LBB IS FOR AN ABBREVIATED ROUND OF TSRA
LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVNG. SPOTTY LIGHT SHRA IN SERN NM EARLY
THIS MRNG SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LBB BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND
OF PRECIP EXITS ERN NM THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW.

CURRENT THINKING IS ANY TSRA AT LBB LATER TODAY WILL BEST BE
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO IN FUTURE TAFS AS THIS THREAT IS STILL TOO
DISTANT AND BRIEF FOR MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. CDS LOOKS TO
AVOID ALL LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WIND-WISE...INITIALLY LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO ACCELERATE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93
170
FXUS64 KLUB 190944
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
358
FXUS64 KLUB 190459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOMORROW
MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /AOA 16 KTS/. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF -SHRA/-TSRA INITIALLY WELL WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND THIS REFLECTED IN COMPUTER MODEL/S
TIMING OF THE SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION...AS PRECIPITATION NEARS
KLBB AOA 20/00Z AND KCDS JUST AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN A
PROB30 AT KLBB FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS A VCSH AT KCDS
ATTM. IF TRENDS ARE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
569
FXUS64 KLUB 182322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES
FOR -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIALLY DEVELOPING WEST OF
KLBB...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB FIRST...AND
THUS A PROB30 MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...A VCSH
HAS BEEN INSERTED AT KCDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
SAID TERMINAL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
624
FXUS64 KLUB 182052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33
343
FXUS64 KLUB 181720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB HAVE RISEN TO VFR WHILE CIGS AT CDS HAVE RISEN TO LOW
END MVFR BY 17Z. CIGS AT CDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS LOW
STRATUS MOVES EASTWARD. A HIGH BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AROUND 30 KFT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z TOMORROW CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER STARTING AT LBB FIRST BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM
INTO WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51
858
FXUS64 KLUB 181111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOW CIGS AT LBB SHOULD RISE TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR NEAR 17Z. SIMILAR STORY
AT CDS...ALBEIT A SOLID 2-3 HOURS LATER DUE TO THICKER STRATUS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO TREND SLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93
755
FXUS64 KLUB 180947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
788
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS AS LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST. VIS HAS ALSO DROPPED TO MVFR CRITIERIA
COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...AS LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
ENSUED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND IFR FOG. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
KLBB WERE A TAD BIT STRONGER THAN AT KCDS /AND DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWER/...HENCE LIKELY WHY FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEREFORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW MID- MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT. SCT- BKN VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
709
FXUS64 KLUB 180317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
214
FXUS64 KLUB 172322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
144
FXUS64 KLUB 172010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       43  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
517
FXUS64 KLUB 171637
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MAY STILL BE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH. ONCE THAT IS OVER THE
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS A RESULT LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOW TO FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT SIGNS OF EXPANSION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES PER KAMA 88D. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCES POINTS EAST. WILL EXPAND RAIN
MENTION A BIT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN BUT KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE GIVEN THIS SLIGHLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN
LINE WITH FCST. LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT MORE THAN EXPECTED
BUT STILL SHOULD MIX EWD SOME AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY FCST AS A RESULT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REMAINING
GRID ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KCDS BUT
IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AND CHANCES STILL SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THAT TAF. MVFR CIGS TO BE PERSISTENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE DAY
AND MAY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AND
POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

AT KLBB...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z AS A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  20   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
443
FXUS64 KLUB 171152 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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