Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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795
FXUS64 KLUB 120813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OK AND KS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE TO ACROSS ERN NM HAS LED
TO S-SE SFC WINDS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S PER 07Z METARS. DUE TO THIS SLUG OF
MOISTURE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CAPROCK LATE LAST
NIGHT AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS. HENCE...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY BE ENVELOPED BY THIS STRATUS DECK. NEXT OBVIOUS CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. 07Z KLBB METAR REPORTED VIS HAVING DROPPED
TO 7SM THUS FAR...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDEED HINT AT LIGHT FOG
IMPACTING THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE UP
A BIT ACROSS THE FA /10 MPH OR SO/ WHICH MAY AID TO DISCOURAGE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.

LOOKING ALOFT...SW FLOW DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE EVER WATCHFUL CLOSED UA LOW THAT HAS
NEARED THE BAJA OF CALI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO MAKES EVIDENT THE SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HEADING OUR
WAY...NOT TO MENTION INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OLD
MEXICO THUS NEARING THE SUN COUNTRY. MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HRS. THE DRYLINE WILL BULGE EWRD
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS AFTN WITH ITS SRN PERIPHERY MORE
SO ACROSS ERN NM...THUS IT IS QUITE DIFFUSE/NOT NEARLY AS SHARP
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...THE DRYLINE COULD STILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CI /ONCE THE STRATUS DECK ERODES/ COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED UL SUPPORT...AS THE UA LOW
DRAWS NEAR /UA LOW ANTICIPATED TO NEAR THE SUN COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTN/. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO NOT INITIATE STORMS UNTIL
AOA 13/00Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE SW
BEING USHERED IN BY THE UA LOW. HOWEVER THE TTU WRF AND THE NAM
SOLUTION HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS SOON AS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS ERODING THE CIN QUICKER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE UA LOW WILL BE RIGHT AT
OUR DOORSTEP /CENTERED TO OUR SW/ AND SO WILL OUR BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP GIVEN THE SURGE IN UL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES
ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY LATE THIS AFTN. THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MUCAPE /AOA 900 J/KG/ THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY /10-25 KTS/. HENCE...CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND UP TO 58 MPH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY /70S AND 80S/ FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A
COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE PANHANDLES AND NEARING THE NRN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
A COOL AND WET DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
FAR WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. INTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SWD AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE COOL AIR MASS AND AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS LOW /REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH BY THAT
TIME/ AS WELL...NOT TAKING IT EAST OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...AND IN THE
CASE OF MONDAY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM AND HOW THAT ENERGY EVOLVES
AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
NOW FAVORING A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
NOT MAKE RADICAL CHANGES AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS...BUT WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATER SHIFTS HAVING TO EXTEND THOSE RAIN CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO A QUESTION THRU THIS
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST COULD KEEP COOLER AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP
NARROW DIURNAL RANGE. MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  49  56  40 /  20  60  80  40
TULIA         79  52  59  43 /  30  60  80  50
PLAINVIEW     78  53  59  44 /  30  60  80  60
LEVELLAND     79  53  61  44 /  30  70  70  50
LUBBOCK       79  54  62  46 /  30  70  70  60
DENVER CITY   77  51  64  45 /  30  50  70  50
BROWNFIELD    79  53  64  46 /  40  50  70  50
CHILDRESS     80  58  66  49 /  30  60  80  60
SPUR          80  57  65  48 /  30  60  70  60
ASPERMONT     84  59  70  52 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07

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