Area Forecast Discussion
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177
FXUS64 KLUB 201725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR AFTER 18Z WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF LBB BY
20Z AND WILL PUSH THROUGH BY 23Z WHICH IS REPRESENTED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS CDS BY
THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING WHILE STILL HAVING A CHANCE FROM
BECOMING SEVERE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN TIMING OF THE DRYLINE
SO I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CDS. BOTH TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NEEDED WHEN STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS DURING THE MORNING SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE COMPLETE WITH SOME FOG MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. 09Z SURFACE MAP REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN NM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A RATHER
WEARY AND TIRED UPPER TROUGH. 00Z RAOBS STILL HINTED AT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT 700MB...BUT AS A WHOLE THIS WAVE HAS LOST ITS
VIGOR. DESPITE THIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS A GOOD BET THIS
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW VORT LOBES OVER SOUTHERN
NM THAT SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
DISCUSSED EARLIER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME
BY.

MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE HWY 385 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
REALIZED UNDER A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. NEGLIGIBLE
CAPPING DOES LOOK GOOD FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE CERTAINLY LOOKS TO FAVOR OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE 700MB LOW. AFTERNOON POPS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THIS IN MIND. ONCE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
THIS MORNING...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WELL SOUTH OF THE 700MB
LOW...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO TAPERS OFF IN THIS REGION. THIS
SUGGESTS MESSY/PULSY CELLS COULD DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND DISCRETE MODES POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.
LOCAL SEVERE WX ANALOGS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THESE SETUPS...BUT
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO FOSTER
SOME DOWNBURSTS. OPTED FOR SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS THIS IS
OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT OF THE SEASON. ANY CRITICS OF
THIS DECISION ARE REMINDED OF YESTERDAY/S BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL
IN SOUTHWEST LUBBOCK THAT OCCURRED UNDER MUCH LESS IDEAL CONDITIONS
THAN WE EXPECT TODAY. BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HAVE MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN OK AND NWRN
TX...LIKELY TAKING ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WITH IT.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS TODAY OTHER THAN SIDING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
NUMBERS IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND NUDGING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
OFFER NO MEANINGFUL COOLING AS WE MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME FOG...BUT WE WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS INVESTIGATE THE FOG THREAT FURTHER BEFORE ADDING ANY
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE
FRONT BUT IT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INDICATE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE A WEAK CAP WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE TTU WRF RUNS
HAVE SHOWN SPOTTY WEAK PRECIPITATION AND THIS HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH-BASED VIRGA OR PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH
THESE RUNS. HELD OFF PUTTING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT
DID INCREASE THEM TO JUST UNDER MENTION AT 14 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE
JUST ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MENTIONABLE POPS YET.

TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY
STILL REMAINS A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ACTIVE DRYLINE. STILL HAVE ALL THE SAME UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE...QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE...AND ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO HELP ERODE
A POTENTIAL CAP ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO PULL
THE DRYLINE A BIT FURTHER WEST ALLOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
REACH LUBBOCK AND OTHER CITIES ALONG I-27/US-87.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
PRODUCING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
DIRECTION...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
HELPING TO BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN FIGURING OUT WHAT
WILL HAPPEN AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS DOES NOT. GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
BACK UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
THE SLOSHING DRYLINE TO THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  49  76  49  79 /  20  10  10   0   0
TULIA         74  51  78  51  81 /  50  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  53  80  54  82 /  50  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  54  82  55  82 /  30  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       75  55  83  56  82 /  40  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   76  55  80  54  82 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  54  81  56  83 /  30  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  58  84  56  83 /  50  40  10   0   0
SPUR          74  58  85  58  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  60  87  57  83 /  40  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51

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