Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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585
FXUS64 KLUB 221758 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO
RESTRICT PRECIP MENTION TO OUR WEST AND NWRN COUNTIES. 17Z SURFACE
OBS INDICATE LL CONVERGENCE IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS IN PARMER AND
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST VIS SATELLITE
SHOWS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CU/MDT CU NEAR FRIONA IN AN AREA OF
DIMINISHING CINH AND MODEST SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THIS AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF WEAK DEFORMATION
ALOFT WHICH WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS AT 250MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING...THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW CU TO REACH THEIR
LFC/S AND MATURE INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PERHAPS AS
SOON AS 19Z. OTHERWISE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS
TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING NEAR THE NM BORDER AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW EXITING THE GRAND CANYON.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. ISO-SCT TSRA ARE MOST LIKELY W-NW OF LBB
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP THESE
OUTSIDE THE LBB AND CDS AIRSPACES. S-SWLY WINDS TO REMAIN 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME AFTN GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  50  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  10  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26/93

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