Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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904
FXUS64 KLUB 271739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NOTCH MORE FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BACKS. VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANGE GROUPS RELATED TO DECOUPLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN RE-COUPLING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO KPVW IN PARTICULAR...WHICH
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO FRIDAY. WINDS FRIDAY MAY
BECOME MORE GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MILDLY BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK WOULD LIKE TO
WISH ALL A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING.  A FANTASTIC WEATHER DAY IT WILL
BE!

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR CHIHUAHUA.  WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM NICELY AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING THAT WILL PROMOTE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTN W-SW SFC WINDS COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING...COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE 70S DURING THE SAID PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
THE 78 DEGREE RECORD ON SATURDAY /SET IN 2012/. FURTHERMORE...THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA TROUGH ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN U.S. TIER ON SUNDAY...AS IT WILL BE SENDING DOWN A DRY
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION /ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-WEST/ THUS
RESULTING IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
TEMPS/. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS EXITING THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH THEREBY
BUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW DUE TO A PACIFIC UA
DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. THE SFC SRLY REGIME WILL ALLOW
THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.5-0.8 INCHES. RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED
TO TRACK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  34  75  36  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         63  35  76  37  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  35  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  37  73  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  37  74  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  36  72  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  37  72  37  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  36  72  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  38  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  38  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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