Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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952
FXUS64 KLUB 161250 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING TO THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA WEB CAMS...COMPOSITE RADAR AND DIRECT
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE ARE CONFIRMING LIGHT FZDZ AS THE
COLUMN ALOFT IS GRADUALLY SATURATING SHORT OF THE DENDRITIC/ICE
ACTIVATION LAYER. THIS WAS THE CASE JUST OVER ONE HOUR AGO AT CDS
WHERE PRECIP BEGAN AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HOWEVER THE LATEST CALL TO CHILDRESS LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATED SLEET WAS FALLING. UNFORTUNATELY WE/VE
ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW CAR ACCIDENTS IN CHILDRESS UP TO
CLARENDON FROM SLICK ROADS AND CONDITIONS SHOW NO SIGN OF
IMPROVING WITH TEMPS STILL FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND CULMINATE WITH UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN AT BOTH LBB AND CDS. INSERTED
A SHORT TEMPO MENTION AT LBB BEGINNING AT 21Z WHEN A BAND OF
DIMINISHING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HERE SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IF LATER FORECASTS DEEM NECESSARY. CDS
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AFTER SUNSET AND RETURNS CONDS EVERYWHERE TO SKC AND VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO SPILL SOUTH THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRUNT OF THE CWA WILL END
UP RECORDING MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR THE DATE AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH 18Z KEEP HIGHS SOME 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH AT 08Z
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS COMPLETE WITH A REGION OF SHARPENING
DIFFLUENCE AND T-STORMS NEAR SHIPROCK/NM. FAVORABLE UL DIVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A 100+ KNOT JET CORE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND REACH OUR DOMAIN AROUND 18Z...
HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME
WHICH PRESENTS SOME CONCERN AS TO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SNOW
THEREAFTER. DESPITE THIS TREND...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP ASCENT IN WILL UNFOLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF SHARP MID-LEVEL DRYING.

COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ERN NM THIS MORNING AND INCREASING COVERAGE
OF VIRGA ECHOES TOWARD TUCUMCARI CONFIRM TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
INCREASING IN EARNEST. THIS LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
REACH OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE COMING HOURS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BY MID/LATE MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING TO DEPTHS AS DEEP AS 8K FEET AT FRIONA
COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...FN
FORCING AROUND THE 700MB LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SEGMENTS OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NE- SW AXIS OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROWING BAND OF SNOW AS
BACKGROUND ASCENT GRADUALLY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 114 CORRIDOR WHICH
SHOULD PRESENT A FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT FARTHER NORTH.
HISTORICALLY...SNOWFALL TENDS TO BE MAXIMIZED A FEW DEGREES NORTH
OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH WPC SNOW PROGS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG I-40. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM
SREF PLUME DATA FOR CHILDRESS WARRANTED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY. TRAVEL IMPACTS
COULD BE SPARED FROM THE WORST GRIEF AS TODAY/S SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OF THE DRIER VARIETY CONSIDERING SNOW RATIOS ARE AROUND 17:1
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FARTHER
EAST. NONETHELESS...THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
USUALLY WARRANTS A LOWER THRESHOLD OF IMPACTS FOR THE PUBLIC.

POPS THIS MORNING WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AND RAMPED UP
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW THIS AFTN...BUT THE DURATION OF THIS SHOULD BE MORE
ABBREVIATED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR REASONS ALREADY
CITED. AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS AND ACT TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING
SNOW FROM NW-SE AS WE PROCEED TOWARD SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A WINDOW FOR FLURRIES
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT OVERALL THE
THEME TONIGHT IS DRY AND CLEAR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT SNOW COVER
SHOULD GARNER A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH NEAR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS FORTUNATELY LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW 10
MPH...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS WHERE ANY SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HIGH ALBEDO FROM
SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS THAT HAVE BARE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT TRIES
TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES RETURN TO THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WINGS OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOOKS TO HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS RETURN FLOW
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF BRINGS
A CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE
CAN GET MOISTURE RETURN BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CAPROCK. SUPERBLEND OF MODEL DATA
DROPPED IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT BUT DID TAPER BACK POPS
BELOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  10  37  15  45 /  90   0   0   0   0
TULIA         24  12  36  18  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  15  37  20  46 /  90   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  15  39  20  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  16  39  22  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  19  40  22  46 /  30   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  18  40  22  46 /  40   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     27  17  36  22  50 /  90   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  17  40  24  49 /  50   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  20  42  24  50 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031.

&&

$$

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