Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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709
FXUS64 KLUB 221704
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WILL PREVAIL AT LBB AND PVW THRU 18Z MONDAY...THOUGH
CDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISBYS BY EARLY
MON MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ENOUGH RAIN
FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LESS OR
NO RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE FOG TODAY WITH LESS MIXING IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
DRYING AND WARMING STILL EXPECTED TO KICK IN WITH EARNEST MONDAY
THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG OFF THE CAPROCK MONDAY MORNING. BUT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN M0NDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PULL EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK AT LEAST WILL
BE SOARING INTO RECORD TERRITORY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHILE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MARCH 23RD RECORD OF 92 AT
CHILDRESS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX TO ABOVE 700
MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND COULD RAISE WINDS INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT
TIMES FOR NORTHERN ZONES AT LEAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO
RESULT NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHOT OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY RESEMBLING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALSO SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAYS
READINGS. THE WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TO RENEW SURFACE TROUGHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AGAINST THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A BETTER
QUALITY PUSH OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH IN THE VICINITY
TO RETAIN A SMALL MENTION FOR SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ANCHORING THE SOUTH END OF A REX BLOCK
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. BLOCK MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BEYOND
THAT FOR A CLIPPER WAVE TO SEND MORE COOL AIR OUR WAY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT DRYNESS LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UNLESS THE OLD CUT-OFF LOW SOMEHOW FINDS A WAY TO CURL BACK
NORTHEAST...THAT SEEMS DOUBTFUL FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS LOOK A GOOD BET MONDAY FOR AREAS
ON THE CAP-ROCK AND AT LEAST THE PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15
PERCENT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH STONEWALL. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEEP MIXING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF WINDS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY...EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD LEVELS
ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND ALSO MAY FACTOR INTO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
ANYWAY... USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE BURN PLANS FOR MONDAY AS
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG LEVELS AT TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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