Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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296
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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