Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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835
FXUS64 KLUB 250757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS OVERHEAD TODAY...AND WITH THE UPTICK IN
HEIGHT FIELDS COUPLING WITH SFC LEE TROUGHING AND THUS S-SW WINDS AT
THE SFC...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID TO UPPER 80S/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE SFC...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY /AOA 20 MPH/. SWRLY SFC WINDS WILL FILTER IN
DRIER AIR...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. A DRY...BREEZY AND RATHER
WARM DAY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. OFF THE CAPROCK...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT SUBTLE
MOISTURE RETURN COURTESY OF SRLY/SLIGHTLY BACKED SFC WINDS
/PWATS OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES/. LOW LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY AND THE LACK
OF UL SUPPORT SUPPRESSES STORM CHANCES...THOUGH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS
ARE NOT OF THE QUESTION.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO BACK TO THE SW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THANKS TO AN UA DISTURBANCE OFF THE NW PACIFIC
COAST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS SRN CALI. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WHILST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP INTO THE
0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE /HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A SLIGHT MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS...HENCE
MAY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEATER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES
SATURDAY AND OVER THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WHICH
WILL BRING COOL TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD.

OVERALL NO SIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FCST THIS MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS AND
PRESSURES FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES.
DRYLINE TO SHIFT TO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF THAT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS AND BETTER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS WHILE LIFT INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES.

POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES
OVER WRN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. 700 MB GRADIENT AND MAGNITUDE OF 700
MB WINDS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY SUGGEST WINDS INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ON
THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NRN HALF/. A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY IN THE
HWO.

FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST MONDAY WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUGGEST WINDY WEST
WINDS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
TO THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALL THE WAY BACK OVER
THE ROCKIES SUPPORT IDEA OF TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING
TO 20-FOOT S-SW WIND SPEEDS AOA 20 MPH. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IN
TURN CAUSES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 5-10 PERCENT
RANGE...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS RAISES CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO
LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW
FIRE STARTS HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR THIS SPRING AND THAT IS WITH
FAR WORSE METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED TODAY. FURTHERMORE...LOW FUEL LOADS MITIGATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FIRES...THOUGH IT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
DRY FUELS WILL NOT BURN IF IGNITED. WILL ELECT TO ISSUE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AND WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP EMPHASIS ON A
GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LOWERS. SW WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WHILE RH DROPS TO 8-13 PCT ON THE CAPROCK.
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO LOOK PRETTY SOLID FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTN AND CAN CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THEN.

SUNDAY WILL SEE A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE
CNTL PLAINS. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL AND RH POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 10 PCT...ALTHOUGH SOME
QUESTIONS ON DEGREE OF COLD AND DRY ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. RH
COULD END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. GIVEN THAT QUESTION NOT
ISSUE A WATCH ATTM BUT LET NEXT SHIFT REEVALUATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  48  86  47  70 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         88  53  88  50  74 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     88  56  88  52  75 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     89  55  88  52  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       89  58  89  54  75 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   88  55  87  52  76 /   0   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    89  57  88  54  77 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     88  60  91  58  82 /   0   0  20  20   0
SPUR          89  59  90  58  82 /   0   0  20  20   0
ASPERMONT     90  63  91  62  83 /   0   0  20  40   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/07

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