Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

902
FXUS64 KLUB 201120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.