Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

395
FXUS64 KLUB 210918
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  59  72  56  78 /  60  50  50  40  10
TULIA         78  58  73  57  78 /  50  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     78  59  72  58  78 /  50  40  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     76  64  73  58  78 /  70  50  50  40  20
LUBBOCK       78  62  72  59  78 /  50  40  50  40  20
DENVER CITY   75  64  75  58  79 /  70  50  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    75  65  75  59  79 /  70  50  50  40  20
CHILDRESS     85  62  81  60  82 /  40  30  20  20  20
SPUR          80  64  77  59  81 /  40  30  30  40  20
ASPERMONT     84  65  81  61  83 /  40  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31/31

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.