Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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921
FXUS64 KLUB 202328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO COALESCE TOWARDS CENTER OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED
NEAR BROWNFIELD ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND -TSRA OVER ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. PLENTY MOIST STILL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB WHICH MAY DROP
INTO LIFR LEVELS BY MID OR LATE EVENING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE A BIT FURTHER
WEST SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR EACH TAF SITE BY MID OR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WE
DID SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...FROM BROWNFIELD AND MEADOW TO
SOUTH OF POST...EARLIER TODAY. SEVERAL SPOTS RECORDED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER SPOTS BETWEEN THE GAGES. JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE GAIL WEST TEXAS MESONET RECORDED NEARLY
11 INCHES TODAY!

WE HAVE SEEN THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WANE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK HEATING HAS LED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
WE EXPECT THIS MORE ISOLATE ACTIVITY TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORE TROPICAL RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOES APPEAR THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A
BIT TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. STILL...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING NEAR SUNDOWN
AND NOT MOVING MUCH...AND THIS COULD PERHAPS BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOCATIONS FROM
YOAKUM TO GARZA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL...AND
THAT THESE LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY /10Z/. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TO THIS POINT
HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHTER AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE HAVE
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
REMAINING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN BOTH TIME AND AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL RAINS DO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER ANOTHER START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG...WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BACKDOOR FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST
ZONES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER CAN OCCUR...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE WEAK /THOUGH
SLIGHTLY UP FROM RECENT DAYS/.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
LAST HURRAH FOR REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL COME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS TIMING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO PROG A NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO
TO THE NRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH DESTABILIZATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A LITTLE
BETTER MID AND UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST AT THAT POINT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY WIDENING. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING AIR MASS
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  61  72  58 /  20  60  50  50  40
TULIA         63  78  61  74  59 /  20  50  40  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  78  62  74  60 /  30  50  40  40  40
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  74  62 /  50  60  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       66  77  63  75  63 /  40  50  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  84  63  79  61 /  20  30  30  20  30
SPUR          68  81  64  77  64 /  50  40  30  30  40
ASPERMONT     69  84  66  80  66 /  50  40  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05

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