Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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939
FXUS64 KLUB 251153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TONIGHT...A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
06 UTC...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SW MT/WRN WY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE ENTERING OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL GET SCOURED EASTWARD ON RISING W-SW BREEZES AS A
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...AND NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AS THEY/LL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN WILL
PROMOTE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. STEEP
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 39 MPH...FOR A PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...EVEN IF THE WINDS DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH WE ARE IN THE PLOWING SEASON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
AVAILABILITY OF DIRT TO BE READILY LOFTED. FINALLY...WE MAY ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME HIGH-BASED RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AS THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LIFT AND SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COOL...DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A VERY BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO VALUES MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS/WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE ARE SHOWN TO QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. A
SUCCESSFUL FRONT MAY MAKE IT DOWN LATE ON SUNDAY BREAKING THE
STREAK OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ROUGHLY EAST OF I-27/US-87 AND SOUTH
OF US-70...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
SURROUNDING THIS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  31  62  36 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         77  34  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     81  34  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  36  63  38 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  37  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  41  66  42 /   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  40  65  41 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  43  65  43 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

33

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