Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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918
FXUS64 KLUB 232341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU THU EVNG AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 10K FEET AGL SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ELY WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL VEER SLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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