Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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315
FXUS64 KLUB 241728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT. 34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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