Area Forecast Discussion
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756
FXUS64 KLUB 162325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. CONVECTION THIS EVENING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES. DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY BRING BRIEF CIGS ABV 20KFT. WINDS LGT/VRBLY THROUGH MON AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS QUANTIFYING STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED FLOW...THOUGH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WAS CONTINUING TO BEND MORE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BEHIND A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
ANOTHER POCKET OF REMNANT RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALOFT...THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEHIND THE
WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXPANSIVE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC WIND FIELD WAS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS HOLDING IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON AND COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING...THIS WAS YIELDING MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
BRING THE BEST SHOT OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
HENCE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IMPINGE UPON THE LIGHT WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH.
RESPECTABLE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE DID MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS SOME INDICATION A
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE PRESENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCE CI
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE WRN END OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS HAVING
SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...SO FCST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY WARM WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
MOS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THE MID LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK...
AND FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THEM THAT WAY. SOME INDICATION THAT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND
TO DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  93  67 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72 100  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/24

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