Area Forecast Discussion
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784
FXUS64 KLUB 201000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS WEST TEXAS
WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARMTH WILL
COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT
TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

INITIALLY...EARLY THIS MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE THERE. OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
LOCALLY...AND WE MIX INTO MODEST WINDS ALOFT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS FANNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR CHILDRESS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH FOR LUBBOCK IS 82 DEGREES...WHICH IF REACHED...WOULD
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1996. THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS/.

LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ENSURE A MILD EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE RACING
SOUTHWARD AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 MB/3 HOURS ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS...THOUGH PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
CONVINCING...AND SUGGEST LIMITED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
...A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHICH IN TURN HAS COOLED HIGH
TEMPS SOME SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH OUR SRN ZONES COULD STILL MAKE 60
DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OVER WTX...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS START TO FILL IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THIS
PERIOD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AS SKIES
TURN CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RISE MUCH AT
ALL...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30F ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SET AT MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TWO MINOR WAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT AND PERHAPS INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND WAVE. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS
TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PERIODS OF SLEET. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PRECISELY FORECAST THE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF SNOW/ICE...BUT IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE CAPROCK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
NW SPLNS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING
THIS WINTER WEATHER IN AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM AND WE/VE LIMITED MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND MAY SET UP
THE NEXT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY ON A COLD NOTE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH /HIGHS FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S/...GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AT 20 FT/ AND DRY CONDITIONS
/RH VALUES FALLING TO 10-15 PERCENT/ WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH...TEMPERATURES DROP AND HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  35  54  26 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         76  38  52  26 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     77  38  54  29 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     81  39  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       82  39  58  31 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   79  41  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    82  41  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  40  56  29 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          83  42  59  31 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     82  45  60  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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