Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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135
FXUS64 KLUB 270553
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEMONSTRATING
STRENGTHENING LIFT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT TRANSITIONING ANY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALES FROM SILVERTON TO PLAINVIEW TO
LEVELLAND AND MORTON CURRENTLY SIT UNDER THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW WINDOW OF DEEP
SATURATION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SO NEAR 1 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL 2 INCH READINGS SEEM JUSTIFIED. EXACT SPATIAL
EXTENT OF 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL EXPRESS A TIGHT GRADIENT DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THIS BAND MEANDERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF -SN
FOR ALL SITES FOCUSING ON WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPVW
AND KLBB AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING TO
UNINTERRUPTED VFR BY DAYBREAK. NOT EXPECTING KCDS TO DROP BELOW
VFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANG AROUND.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE DIM FOR TONIGHT. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CREATE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE BONE DRY. THE MOST
IMPORTANT LIFT WILL COME FROM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS
MADE MORE OF A SOUTHERN PROGRESSION THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DESPITE THIS...THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL BE FAVORED
FOR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL BE
AROUND 700-500MB AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THIS PASSING COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT...AND A QUICK RETURN
TO SWLY WINDS AND A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. VERY
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS CRASH ACROSS THE WEST WITH ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST SLOWLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN STATES. MAIN FOCUS FOR WEST TEXAS WILL BE BUILDING 1055 MB
SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECM AND
GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH HANDLING OF SFC AND
UPPER FEATURES. GENERAL CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF FRONT IS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
FRONTS USUALLY COME THROUGH FASTER/EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO
COULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY HOLD NEAR 20 SRN PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER SOUTH. SLOW WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.

KEPT BLENDED RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK...AS SUPER
BLEND SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN. FIRST
SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TYPE...BUT DEEP COLD AIR WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT
SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. DEPTH OF SATURATION MAY BE MARGINAL FOR CLEAR
CUT SNOW. COULD SEE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT WOULD BE IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
PUNCH AS IT IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS TIME AROUND...BUT DUE TO DEEPER
SATURATION...SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW
FOR NOW...BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO NEW YEAR DAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP
CLOSE TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  16  34  17  49 /  20  20  10   0   0
TULIA         43  20  36  18  49 /  10  50  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  22  39  19  50 /  10  80  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  23  39  21  52 /  10  80  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  23  41  21  51 /  10  80  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  25  38  23  51 /  10  50  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  26  40  22  52 /  10  60  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     54  27  42  21  49 /   0  60  10   0   0
SPUR          63  27  41  24  50 /   0  40  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     68  32  40  25  50 /   0  30  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

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