Area Forecast Discussion
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140
FXUS64 KLUB 210941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
441 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SEVERE CONVECTION WAS PUSHING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING
FOR TOMORROW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AHEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT
THE NEAREST COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CO AND NWRN KS WILL FALL SHORT
OF OUR DOORSTEPS AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TUG SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISMISS SPOTTY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS THIS
AFTN. RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO OVERWHELM ANY ATTEMPTS AT HIGH BASED
CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES IN THIS
OTHERWISE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS
TODAY WAS TO COOL OFF PARTS OF OUR NERN COUNTIES FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY/S RECORD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVERHEAD AND WIND RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE DRYLINE
POSITION THROUGH THE DAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING PRETTY CLOSE TO I-27/US-87 OR AN
AMARILLO...LUBBOCK...TO MIDLAND LINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM 12 HAS
THE WESTERN EDGE CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE POCKET OF LOW-
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN ANY STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING BUT THERE STILL IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW STRONG
THE CAP WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL BE DRY AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEN PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
IN PLACE.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND NEEDED A CLOSE LOOK AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN BROUGHT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN STALLED IT OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND SWINGS OUT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PAINT A MUCH
DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES ON MONDAY...A SLOSHING DRYLINE AT THE SURFACE WITH POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE...OPTED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  49  80  53  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
TULIA         78  50  80  56  83 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     79  51  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     81  53  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       83  54  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   82  54  82  61  86 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  54  82  60  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     81  55  84  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  30
SPUR          84  55  83  58  88 /  10   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  60  89 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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