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624
FXUS64 KLUB 182052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33
343
FXUS64 KLUB 181720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB HAVE RISEN TO VFR WHILE CIGS AT CDS HAVE RISEN TO LOW
END MVFR BY 17Z. CIGS AT CDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS LOW
STRATUS MOVES EASTWARD. A HIGH BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AROUND 30 KFT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z TOMORROW CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER STARTING AT LBB FIRST BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM
INTO WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51
858
FXUS64 KLUB 181111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOW CIGS AT LBB SHOULD RISE TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR NEAR 17Z. SIMILAR STORY
AT CDS...ALBEIT A SOLID 2-3 HOURS LATER DUE TO THICKER STRATUS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO TREND SLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93
755
FXUS64 KLUB 180947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
788
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS AS LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST. VIS HAS ALSO DROPPED TO MVFR CRITIERIA
COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...AS LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
ENSUED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND IFR FOG. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
KLBB WERE A TAD BIT STRONGER THAN AT KCDS /AND DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWER/...HENCE LIKELY WHY FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEREFORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW MID- MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT. SCT- BKN VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
709
FXUS64 KLUB 180317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
214
FXUS64 KLUB 172322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
144
FXUS64 KLUB 172010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       43  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
517
FXUS64 KLUB 171637
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MAY STILL BE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH. ONCE THAT IS OVER THE
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS A RESULT LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOW TO FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT SIGNS OF EXPANSION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES PER KAMA 88D. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCES POINTS EAST. WILL EXPAND RAIN
MENTION A BIT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN BUT KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE GIVEN THIS SLIGHLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN
LINE WITH FCST. LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT MORE THAN EXPECTED
BUT STILL SHOULD MIX EWD SOME AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY FCST AS A RESULT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REMAINING
GRID ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KCDS BUT
IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AND CHANCES STILL SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THAT TAF. MVFR CIGS TO BE PERSISTENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE DAY
AND MAY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AND
POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

AT KLBB...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z AS A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  20   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
443
FXUS64 KLUB 171152 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
312
FXUS64 KLUB 170844
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
857
FXUS64 KLUB 170505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT TONIGHT AS EXPECTED
/15-20 KTS/. WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CLOUDS MORE LIKELY AT
KCDS. COULD SEE -SHRA ALSO AT KCDS TOMORROW MORNING AND
THUS...WILL CONTINUE A PROB30 MENTION ATTM. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT LEADS TO PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS AT
KCDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.

&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       47  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
228
FXUS64 KLUB 162321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...BUT STAY UP IN THE 14-16 KT RANGE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COURTESY OF A
COLD FRONT. LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CLOUD DECKS MORE SO AT
KCDS. COULD SEE -SHRA ALSO AT KCDS TOMORROW MORNING...AND HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       47  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
208
FXUS64 KLUB 161950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       45  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
149
FXUS64 KLUB 161713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
PAST BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WRN OKLA TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KCDS. KLBB LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS KCDS...BUT THAT CHANCE STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ALL OF TODAY. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KLBB BUT 15 TO 25
KTS AT KCDS. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR
NOT.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
259
FXUS64 KLUB 161124 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ALL OF TODAY. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KLBB BUT 15 TO 25
KTS AT KCDS. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR
NOT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
612
FXUS64 KLUB 160851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
602
FXUS64 KLUB 160451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 500-600 FEET AGL
AS MEASURED AT THE REESE CENTER SODAR FROM THE WEST TEXAS MESONET
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN
15-20 KNOTS BENEATH THIS JET SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CALL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS IS A CLOSE CALL
AGAIN. JET WILL BE OVER KCDS IN THE MORNING AND WILL MIX OUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING THERE BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
919
FXUS64 KLUB 152309
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
349
FXUS64 KLUB 151933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
701
FXUS64 KLUB 151706
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS PERIODICALLY GUSTY ON THE ORDER OF 15G25KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN NM AND AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP BY LATE MORNING. A 40-40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
308
FXUS64 KLUB 151141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP BY LATE MORNING. A 40-40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

33
551
FXUS64 KLUB 150834
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

33/23
258
FXUS64 KLUB 150433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THUS FAR...TRENDS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE LARGELY RIGHT ON
TRACK. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT ARE
TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NWP ESTIMATES.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WARM BIAS MAY OCCUR IN URBAN LUBBOCK THOUGH UPPER 20S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY. INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP IN THE 500 TO 1500
FT RANGE THUS MAKING MITIGATION ATTEMPTS DIFFICULT FOR AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS EVEN WITH THE USE OF HELICOPTERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  21  65  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  64  38  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  23  65  39  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  39  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  39  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  39  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  26  65  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  29  66  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26
493
FXUS64 KLUB 142322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  65  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  64  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  65  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  39  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          26  65  41  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  66  41  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26
619
FXUS64 KLUB 142032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  65  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  64  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  65  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  39  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          26  65  41  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  66  41  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

05/16
052
FXUS64 KLUB 141810
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
110 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYER ON THE CAPROCK MAINLY NORTHWEST OF KLBB
WAS JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AND THINNING. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
REDEVELOP FOR ANY SINGIFICANT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THEN WILL
DOMINATE WITH THE STIFF NORTH WINDS TAPERING OFF TO NEARLY NOTHING
BY MID OR LATE EVENING. COLD NIGHT ON THE WAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLING OVERHEAD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REFORM
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RETURN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EASING UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
AND LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AT KCDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST AND DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK
OUT. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN
THE NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NEWD ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORTANCE IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  64  38  76  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  63  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     26  65  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  38  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  36  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  35  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  75  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          29  65  38  76  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     30  66  38  75  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05
204
FXUS64 KLUB 141150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EASING UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
AND LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AT KCDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST AND DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK
OUT. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN
THE NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NEWD ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORTANCE IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33/23
916
FXUS64 KLUB 141114 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST ANT DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN THE
NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON FRIDAY
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORT IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCES LEVEL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33
790
FXUS64 KLUB 140853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST ANT DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN THE
NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON FRIDAY
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORT IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCES LEVEL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/33
380
FXUS64 KLUB 140503 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE GRIDS AND BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO NOT RAMPED UP AS MUCH AS WAS ANTICIPATED BUT INCOMING 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS KEPT WIND SPEEDS RIGHT AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND TEMPERATURES
SHOUDL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL TRANSITION THINGS OVER TO
SNOW FAIRLY FAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF ANYTHING CAN
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE.  UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

JORDAN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PALCE AT BOTH TERMINALS HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO PUSH TOWARDS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW SOON THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE
IT TO THE TERMINALS AND HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTH WIND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AT BOTH TERMINALS
AND CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK OUT BACK INTO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEED WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY NIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IN STORE. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KCDS WITH STRONG SUSTAINED NORTH WIND. FRONT IS AT THE
DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT KLBB UNTIL A STRONGER
SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL
LIKELY BUMP SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME DUST BEING BLOWN ABOUT AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY
DAY AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

14/93/14
003
FXUS64 KLUB 132321 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IN STORE. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KCDS WITH STRONG SUSTAINED NORTH WIND. FRONT IS AT THE
DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT KLBB UNTIL A STRONGER
SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL
LIKELY BUMP SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME DUST BEING BLOWN ABOUT AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY
DAY AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

14/93/14
876
FXUS64 KLUB 132040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/05
747
FXUS64 KLUB 131722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WERE OCCURRING AT
BOTH TAF SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BECOME
RESTRICTED AS OF YET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CRITERIA
DROPS TO VFR LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO BLDU. MAY SEE A LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT KLBB...HOWEVER
A RATHER BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NEARING KCDS INITIALLY...TO ACROSS KLBB LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK
INTO THE 20-27 KT RANGE BY TONIGHT /HIGHEST SPEEDS PROJECTED TO BE
AT KLBB/. SHOULD SEE VIS GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM VFR TO MVFR AT
KLBB THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO THICKENING DUST...BUT COULD GO
LOWER THAN THAT IF A HABOOB FORMS. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...THOUGH
STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY /20-23 KTS/. FURTHERMORE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER
OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PRECIP/WINTRY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH -SHRA/-DZ COULD AFFECT KCDS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  45  25  66  39 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  46  25  66  41 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  47  26  65  40 /  20  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  49  27  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  49  28  66  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  52  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    36  51  28  67  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  30  67  42 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          38  52  31  66  42 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  55  33  67  43 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

29
133
FXUS64 KLUB 131147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE FURTHER BY MID-MORNING. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT
SOME BLOWING DUST AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG THROUGH KCDS AROUND 20Z WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AT KLBB THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND 03Z. THIS
FRONT COULD BRING MORE BLOWING DUST IN ADDITION TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE AN AWW COULD BE NEEDED FOR
KLBB TODAY...WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ONE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR
CIGS A GOOD BET. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  28  45  25  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
TULIA         77  31  46  25  66 /  10  20  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  33  47  26  65 /  10  20  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  34  49  27  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  35  49  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  35  52  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  36  51  28  67 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  37  51  30  67 /  10  10  20   0   0
SPUR          89  38  52  31  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  41  55  33  67 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

23/33/23
085
FXUS64 KLUB 130900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS IT MAY MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  28  45  25  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
TULIA         77  31  46  25  66 /  10  20  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  33  47  26  65 /  10  20  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  34  49  27  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  36  49  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  35  52  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  36  51  28  67 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  37  51  30  67 /  10  10  20   0   0
SPUR          89  38  52  31  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  41  55  33  67 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

23/33
449
FXUS64 KLUB 122352 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING DUST AT KLBB BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN...COURTESY OF
THE EVER WATCHFUL UA DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SRN NV/WRN AZ AND
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING
SHEARED OUT/OPENING UP...WHILST AIDING IN STREAMING A FETCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE /HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...SFC LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO
OUR WEST. DEEP ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB EXISTS /THUS TAPPING INTO
20-35 KT WIND SPEEDS/...WHICH WOULD USUALLY REFLECT AT THE SFC AS
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AIDED TO
SLOW DOWN/DELAY THE MIXING PROCESS AS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
EXISTS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY/. HOWEVER...CONTINUING ANTICIPATED
DEEPENED OF THE SFC LOW COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE SPEEDS OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER /80S AND 90S/ AS WELL
AS THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR TO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA /DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE LOCATION OF A SHARP DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HENCE...IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. BREEZY...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30+ KTS IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH...IF
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER...COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED THEREBY CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UP A BIT /15-20
MPH/ WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. CONCURRENTLY...MODELS
HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEARING/BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES...THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SAID LOCALES. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING DOES TAKE PLACE...IN ADDITION TO
THE EXISTENCE OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT A 14 PERCENT POP WITH A SPRINKLE MENTION IS
APPROPRIATE.

THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENED
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW AFTN. ANY RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY
BECOME REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AS THE DISTURBANCE/S BREEZY PACIFIC
FRONT RACES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME
ALMOST DUE WRLY AT 20-25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S NW TO MIDDLE 80S SE. ONCE AGAIN...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS /WITH LOCALIZED DUST/ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HIGH FIRE
DANGER DAY AND THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE REASON FOR THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE NOT BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...IS
BECAUSE THE SAID AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS
WEAKER WINDS /AND COOLER TEMPS/ OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SET TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IMPACTS ARE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /29

LONG TERM...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...DELAYING STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING...WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE TO WORK ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. LATER SOLUTIONS HAVE PACKED STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
GRADIENT WHICH GIVES RISE TO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER HABOOB-TYPE
BLOWING DUST SQUALL ARCING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY. FEW CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SATURATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRYNESS
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF CONCENTRATED FORCING OCCURS...STILL SEEMS AN
OUTSIDE BET. LIFT PULLING EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
THE SHOWER CHANCES FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AND WE DISCONTINUED MENTION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTING PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO NOT REACH AVERAGE LAST
SPRING FREEZE DATES FOR ANOTHER 5-8 DAYS OR SO AND A SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE OCCURRED APRIL 4TH WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT READY
TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH YET AS WE WOULD LIKE TO CLEAR OUT OF THIS
WEEKENDS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION TO KEEP PRODUCT LOAD MANAGEABLE.
BUT THIS WILL NEED CONSIDERATION TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER BENIGN CONDITIONS. FRONTAL DOWNTURN STILL PLAUSIBLE
THURSDAY-ISH WHILE PROSPECTS TO LOAD DRY-LINE LATE NEXT WEEK STILL
DISTANT IF NOT OUTRIGHT DOUBTFUL. ALSO...SOLUTIONS HAVE MINORED
OUT THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...SO ALL THIS FAVORS DRY IN OUR FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
RESPONDED...BUT RATHER SLOWLY/GRADUALLY DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AIDING IN SLOWING DOWN/DELAYING ABL MIXING. AS SUCH...WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY HARD-PRESSED TO REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL THOUGH...20-FOOT
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH EXISTS...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED RATHER WARM CONDITIONS
/80S AND 90S/ WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUS BREEZY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTN...WHICH CAN BE FURTHER VALIDATED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING
OFF 5-30 RED FLAG MINUTES /LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED/.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT PROMOTING 20-FOOT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  70  31  46  25 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         55  73  33  46  25 /  10  10  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     57  75  34  48  26 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  36  50  27 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       58  80  37  50  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  39  52  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  81  39  51  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     63  79  39  51  30 /  10  10  10  20   0
SPUR          62  85  40  52  31 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     66  85  43  54  33 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$
135
FXUS64 KLUB 122030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN...COURTESY OF
THE EVER WATCHFUL UA DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SRN NV/WRN AZ AND
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING
SHEARED OUT/OPENING UP...WHILST AIDING IN STREAMING A FETCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE /HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...SFC LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO
OUR WEST. DEEP ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB EXISTS /THUS TAPPING INTO
20-35 KT WIND SPEEDS/...WHICH WOULD USUALLY REFLECT AT THE SFC AS
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AIDED TO
SLOW DOWN/DELAY THE MIXING PROCESS AS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
EXISTS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY/. HOWEVER...CONTINUING ANTICIPATED
DEEPENED OF THE SFC LOW COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE SPEEDS OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER /80S AND 90S/ AS WELL
AS THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR TO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA /DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE LOCATION OF A SHARP DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HENCE...IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. BREEZY...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30+ KTS IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH...IF
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER...COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED THEREBY CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UP A BIT /15-20
MPH/ WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. CONCURRENTLY...MODELS
HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEARING/BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES...THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SAID LOCALES. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING DOES TAKE PLACE...IN ADDITION TO
THE EXISTENCE OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT A 14 PERCENT POP WITH A SPRINKLE MENTION IS
APPROPRIATE.

THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENED
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW AFTN. ANY RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY
BECOME REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AS THE DISTURBANCE/S BREEZY PACIFIC
FRONT RACES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME
ALMOST DUE WRLY AT 20-25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S NW TO MIDDLE 80S SE. ONCE AGAIN...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS /WITH LOCALIZED DUST/ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HIGH FIRE
DANGER DAY AND THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE REASON FOR THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE NOT BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...IS
BECAUSE THE SAID AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS
WEAKER WINDS /AND COOLER TEMPS/ OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SET TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IMPACTS ARE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /29


&&

.LONG TERM...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...DELAYING STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING...WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE TO WORK ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. LATER SOLUTIONS HAVE PACKED STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
GRADIENT WHICH GIVES RISE TO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER HABOOB-TYPE
BLOWING DUST SQUALL ARCING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY. FEW CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SATURATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRYNESS
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF CONCENTRATED FORCING OCCURS...STILL SEEMS AN
OUTSIDE BET. LIFT PULLING EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
THE SHOWER CHANCES FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AND WE DISCONTINUED MENTION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTING PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO NOT REACH AVERAGE LAST
SPRING FREEZE DATES FOR ANOTHER 5-8 DAYS OR SO AND A SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE OCCURRED APRIL 4TH WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT READY
TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH YET AS WE WOULD LIKE TO CLEAR OUT OF THIS
WEEKENDS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION TO KEEP PRODUCT LOAD MANAGEABLE.
BUT THIS WILL NEED CONSIDERATION TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER BENIGN CONDITIONS. FRONTAL DOWNTURN STILL PLAUSIBLE
THURSDAY-ISH WHILE PROSPECTS TO LOAD DRY-LINE LATE NEXT WEEK STILL
DISTANT IF NOT OUTRIGHT DOUBTFUL. ALSO...SOLUTIONS HAVE MINORED
OUT THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...SO ALL THIS FAVORS DRY IN OUR FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
RESPONDED...BUT RATHER SLOWLY/GRADUALLY DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AIDING IN SLOWING DOWN/DELAYING ABL MIXING. AS SUCH...WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY HARD-PRESSED TO REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL THOUGH...20-FOOT
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH EXISTS...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED RATHER WARM CONDITIONS
/80S AND 90S/ WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUS BREEZY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTN...WHICH CAN BE FURTHER VALIDATED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING
OFF 5-30 RED FLAG MINUTES /LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED/.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT PROMOTING 20-FOOT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  70  31  46  25 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         55  73  33  46  25 /  10  10  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     57  75  34  48  26 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  36  50  27 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       58  81  37  50  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  39  52  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  81  39  51  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     63  79  39  51  30 /  10  10  10  20   0
SPUR          62  85  40  52  31 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     66  85  43  54  33 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

29/05
864
FXUS64 KLUB 121734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BREEZY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTN. SPEEDS OF 22-24 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
VISIBILITIES BECOMING RESTRICTED TO VFR CRITERIA /AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CRITERIA/ PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT ONLY JUST A BIT WITH 17-18 KTS ENSUING.
TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...VFR BLDU
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT THEIR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE
FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT
THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  31  46  30 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         53  72  32  47  30 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     56  75  32  49  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     56  80  34  50  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       58  81  36  51  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  81  37  53  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  81  37  52  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     61  78  37  52  34 /  10  10  10  20  10
SPUR          61  85  38  52  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  88  41  55  36 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

29
250
FXUS64 KLUB 121152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS AS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT
AREAS OF BLDU...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. THE WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS...AND LLWS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY THICKER BLDU THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT THEIR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE
FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT
THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  51  70  31  46 /   0  10  10  20  30
TULIA         88  53  72  32  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     90  56  75  32  49 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     90  56  80  34  50 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       90  58  80  36  51 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   87  53  81  37  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    90  56  81  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     96  61  78  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          93  61  85  38  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  65  88  41  55 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

23/33/23
607
FXUS64 KLUB 120903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY
EVENING...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT
THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT
WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  51  70  31  46 /   0  10  10  20  30
TULIA         88  53  72  32  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     90  56  75  32  49 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     90  56  80  34  50 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       90  58  81  36  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  53  81  37  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    90  56  81  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     96  61  78  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          93  61  85  38  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  65  88  41  55 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

23/33
435
FXUS64 KLUB 120442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 13/06Z. SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
TREND SWLY BY LATE SAT MRNG BEFORE RAMPING UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AFTER 16Z. OCNL AFTN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS COULD STIR UP
BLDU AT LBB...BUT NOTHING TO RESTRICT VISBYS BLO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  57  79  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

93
739
FXUS64 KLUB 112302
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD. OCNL LIGHT/VRB WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL TREND S-SELY WITH TIME BEFORE RAMPING UP TO 18-20
KNOTS FROM THE SW BY LATE SAT MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BACK-DOORED INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...HAS PUSHED TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO THE E-NE HAS
COMMENCED...COURTESY OF WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND THE
GRADUAL EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SLOW EWRD
PROPAGATING FLATTENED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS AIDED IN FILTERING IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH...DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ADVECTION OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC
RIDGE. TONIGHT...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER WITH A S-SE COMPONENT TONIGHT TO FINALLY A S-SW
COMPONENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WX FEATURES MAY
TAKE SHAPE. THE FIRST IS THE DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UA LOW /CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALI COAST/ THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ON SHORE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20-25
MPH/...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORM WARMTH /80S AND
90S/ AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DUST. THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK BY
PEAK HEATING. BREEZY...WARM  AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER...AND THEREFORE  UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ON THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE MOISTER AIR ENSUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN THE SECOND WX
FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES /INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE/ WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN...SFC-BASED CAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BEING THE AREA OF
INTEREST COINCIDING WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN. IF THE CAP CAN
INDEED BE BROKEN...ADEQUATE SPEED AND WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS OVER-SPREADING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA...THOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED BY THE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER WEST AS DEPICTED BY GFS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND INSTABILITY A
BIT IN QUESTION. GFS FASTER FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS TROUGH
SYSTEM AND THUS QUICKEST TO DROP THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE A BLEND WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS
KEEPING BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO GENERATE AT LEAST BREEZY OR LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEXT EVENT WILL BE THAT SHARP COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FAVORING NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTENING IN LOWER
LEVELS ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WIDE APART WITH THE CRITICAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SO CANNOT ARGUE ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH WE DID EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THEN...COLD AIR WILL ENGULF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN LATER FORECASTS. FLATTER PATTERN BEYOND
WILL LEAD TO WARMING. PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES
VERY MUCH. WITHHOLDING ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ARISES. LONG TERM FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY: A NEARBY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IN TURN...WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AIRMASS LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH
THE CRISP CANADIAN COLD FRONT HANGING UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY LIMIT RED FLAG
POSSIBILITIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  57  79  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

93
326
FXUS64 KLUB 112051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BACK-DOORED INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...HAS PUSHED TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO THE E-NE HAS
COMMENCED...COURTESY OF WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND THE
GRADUAL EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SLOW EWRD
PROPAGATING FLATTENED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS AIDED IN FILTERING IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH...DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ADVECTION OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC
RIDGE. TONIGHT...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER WITH A S-SE COMPONENT TONIGHT TO FINALLY A S-SW
COMPONENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WX FEATURES MAY
TAKE SHAPE. THE FIRST IS THE DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UA LOW /CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALI COAST/ THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ON SHORE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20-25
MPH/...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORM WARMTH /80S AND
90S/ AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DUST. THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK BY
PEAK HEATING. BREEZY...WARM  AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER...AND THEREFORE  UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ON THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE MOISTER AIR ENSUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN THE SECOND WX
FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES /INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE/ WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN...SFC-BASED CAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BEING THE AREA OF
INTEREST COINCIDING WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN. IF THE CAP CAN
INDEED BE BROKEN...ADEQUATE SPEED AND WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS OVER-SPREADING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA...THOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED BY THE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER WEST AS DEPICTED BY GFS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND INSTABILITY A
BIT IN QUESTION. GFS FASTER FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS TROUGH
SYSTEM AND THUS QUICKEST TO DROP THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE A BLEND WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS
KEEPING BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO GENERATE AT LEAST BREEZY OR LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEXT EVENT WILL BE THAT SHARP COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FAVORING NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTENING IN LOWER
LEVELS ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WIDE APART WITH THE CRITICAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SO CANNOT ARGUE ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH WE DID EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THEN...COLD AIR WILL ENGULF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN LATER FORECASTS. FLATTER PATTERN BEYOND
WILL LEAD TO WARMING. PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES
VERY MUCH. WITHHOLDING ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ARISES. LONG TERM FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY: A NEARBY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IN TURN...WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AIRMASS LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH
THE CRISP CANADIAN COLD FRONT HANGING UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY LIMIT RED FLAG
POSSIBILITIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  58  80  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/05

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