Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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854
FXUS64 KLUB 281120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A VERY FINE HAZE ACROSS THE CITY OF LUBBOCK BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...AS HINTED
AT BY SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS. NO DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION ATTM. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES /14-18 KTS/.
WINDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE
VEERING FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH WAS ALMOST OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT CONTINUES ITS ESEWRD PROGRESSION. IT WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS UA DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED NE FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE FAR LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING. CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATING ALL BUT A SLIVER OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...HAS LED TO
TEMPS CRATERING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIONA KEEPS FLIRTING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS...BUT DUE TO A LIGHT SW SFC WIND THE TEMP
MANAGES TO REMAIN AOA 11 DEGREES. WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 2-4 DEGREES...CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES...
ESPECIALLY SINCE A THIN LAYER OF HAZE CAN BE SEEN FROM THE NWS
OFFICE CAM. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR
HINT AT FOG DEVELOPING MORE SO ACROSS THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SCOURING OUT BY MID-MORNING. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE
LIGHT SW WIND COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH
WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR UNTIL
MID-MORNING...WHEN SPEEDS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS
VIS IS PROGGED TO FALL TO/BELOW 1 MILE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SW WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...COURTESY OF A
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED NEARBY SFC LOW. WITH STREETS NOT BEING PLAUGED BY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL THEREFORE MANAGE
TO WARMUP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S /OR SOME 6-12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/. TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
WILL PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING SFC WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL AID TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NW TO UPPER 20S SE EXPECTED. BIG CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON SO LOOK TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON COLD AIR AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVING LATER THAT NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP A NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...FAVORING MOS FOR LOWS AND
UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR HIGHS.

IN GENERAL...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THAT IN ITSELF IS ENOUGH TO CONSIDER POPS EACH DAY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A DRY TO VERY DRY MID LEVELS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. APPEARS ATTM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN MOISTENING THE MID LEVELS SOME. PROFILE SEEMS
TO FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS A CLOSED LOW
MOVES THROUGH ACROSS SRN CALIF. WITH THIS REGIME WILL LOSE THE
LIFT AND SEE MID LEVELS DRY AGAIN. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL TRIM
POPS BACK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...EXPECT POPS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. 00Z
MODEL RUN TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD BRING THE PEAK POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP
PHASE AT THAT TIME LIKELY A PROBLEM WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH A RAIN AND SNOW
MENTION BASED LARGELY UPON SFC TEMPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  19  45  14  23 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         46  21  45  15  24 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  23  48  16  25 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  26  51  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  26  50  18  27 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   44  26  51  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  26  52  20  29 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  24  48  21  28 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          49  26  53  21  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     50  29  55  24  32 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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