Area Forecast Discussion
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375
FXUS64 KLUB 200917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.

LOW THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS
TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT EARLIER. THIS
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...THIS WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE
A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA STILL IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. BUT RECENT TRENDS FROM THE
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN EVER SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND SLOWER. AS SUCH...BOTH WRF/NAM AND
GFS WERE DEPICTING DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WE HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS IF THIS IS A VIABLE
TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AS WELL AS IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO AVAIL ITSELF INTO ANY
FORM OF EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESS. THE 06Z WRF/NAM RUN AS
WELL NOW FAVORS PRECIPITATION EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...
THOUGH WE CAUTION AGAINST THE ODD 06Z CHANGES WE FREQUENTLY SEE.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PART WAY TOWARDS WHAT THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SHOWING...WITH CHANCE MENTION THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR THE NEXT MOVE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS EAST EARLY SUNDAY...WEATHERMAN SHOULD
BECOME MORE POPULAR AS FLAT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE SUNDAY IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS
ENERGY EMERGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES PERHAPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

BUT ANOTHER GATHERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF ACROSS
THE BAJA REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH BENDS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY-ISH...A BIT UNCERTAIN ON TIMING YET...AND PROBABLY
OVERALL DOWNHILL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF CLARITY WITH HOW PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY
OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
ARGUE TOO MUCH AGAINST A MINIMAL MENTION NOW CENTERED THURSDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  40  66  40 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         63  41  66  43 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  42  66  43 /  10   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     61  43  64  42 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  43  65  44 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   61  43  60  43 /  10  10  40  30
BROWNFIELD    61  44  61  44 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     66  45  70  49 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          62  45  66  48 /  10   0  30  30
ASPERMONT     61  47  66  50 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05

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