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884
FXUS64 KLUB 280251 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
951 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHILE RAISING VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
DATA IN THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A RESPECTABLE MATURATION OF
CONVECTION IN FLOYD COUNTY COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL-SCALE MCV
OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF FLOYDADA AT 930 PM PER 88D DATA. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PAST DAYS...THESE SMALL FEATURES HAVE TENDED TO
FOCUS THE LION/S SHARE OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP AND THIS CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL AND MORE DIFFUSE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AREA WIDE CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME. NO OTHER UPDATES NECESSARY
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
SCTD TSRA AT 630 PM ABOUT 15W LBB MOVG NE WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDER
THRU 02Z AT LBB...BUT OVERALL THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE HOURS AHEAD. EARLIER TS AT CDS HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED AND CONDS THERE LOOK TO BE QUIET THRU THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
18Z THU JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO CDS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENTERED GENERIC PROB30S FOR BOTH TERMINALS
AS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TS AT THIS POINT ARE UNCLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  20  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  20  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  30  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
891
FXUS64 KLUB 272337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
SCTD TSRA AT 630 PM ABOUT 15W LBB MOVG NE WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDER
THRU 02Z AT LBB...BUT OVERALL THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE HOURS AHEAD. EARLIER TS AT CDS HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED AND CONDS THERE LOOK TO BE QUIET THRU THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
18Z THU JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO CDS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENTERED GENERIC PROB30S FOR BOTH TERMINALS
AS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TS AT THIS POINT ARE UNCLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
005
FXUS64 KLUB 272021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMIT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  91  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
271
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  87  58  87  61 /  40  30  30  30  20
TULIA         65  87  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     65  87  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  88  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  90  66  91  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    66  91  64  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  91  69  91  70 /  20  40  40  30  30
SPUR          68  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  96  70 /  20  40  40  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51
178
FXUS64 KLUB 271144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. COVERAGE OF -TSRA WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...BUT A STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. CHANCES OF A -TSRA
IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL MAY INCREASE TONIGHT. STRONG...ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND LOW VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF RAIN SHAFTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY...SRLY
SURFACE WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
892
FXUS64 KLUB 270907
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
342
FXUS64 KLUB 270430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER AT KCDS. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN
TAF ATTM.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  20  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  20  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  20  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  20  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
035
FXUS64 KLUB 262313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
489
FXUS64 KLUB 262012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
536
FXUS64 KLUB 261708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z AROUND
LBB...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  61  86  60 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  89  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  92  69  90  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  69  91  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  91  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  97  71  93  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  95  73  94  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  98  73  95  70 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51
524
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  69  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
633
FXUS64 KLUB 260911
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
952
FXUS64 KLUB 260442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL WITH
A SMALL GROUP POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCDS TERMINAL AT ISSUANCE. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH MORE SCT CLOUDS IN THE
AFTN WITH ANY POTENTIAL CIGS VFR. BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFT WELL N
OF BOTH TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD SPARK MORE ISOLD STORMS. VRBL WINDS THROUGH
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SERLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24
879
FXUS64 KLUB 260309 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

..AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23
552
FXUS64 KLUB 252338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/24
914
FXUS64 KLUB 251906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH.  A DROPPING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES.  IN GENERAL...WEAK CONVERGENGE IS
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD OF ALTOCU HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  30  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51
999
FXUS64 KLUB 251727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO EXIST AT KLBB FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISO RASH HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INVOF ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
890
FXUS64 KLUB 251112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
935
FXUS64 KLUB 250952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05
324
FXUS64 KLUB 250433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TSRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN AROUND 12
KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  60   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
362
FXUS64 KLUB 250025 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  30   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  20   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
751
FXUS64 KLUB 242336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
869
FXUS64 KLUB 242043
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/51
861
FXUS64 KLUB 241747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LGT SLY WINDS THRU 25/18Z. MAY SEE ISO TSRA DEVELOP WEST
OF CDS BY 20Z AND DRIFT NE...BUT WILL OMIT THIS MENTION FROM THE
TAF AS BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO FAVOR ARES FARTHER NW IN THE
PANHANDLE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
KINEMATIC PROFILES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WHEN NO CONVECTION
WAS OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHED WELL BACK WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH. FURTHERMORE...HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LESS HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE MIXING AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITIES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSE TO OUR
WESTERN BORDER. EARLIER RUNS INDICATED A WAVE EDGING NEAR ENOUGH TO
OUR BORDER MONDAY FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM
HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. STILL...WE ADDED LOW MENTION MONDAY
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LARGEST ISSUE THIS FORECAST REMAINS
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ALSO THE MONSOON FLOW LIKELY BENDING THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEMS START EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ALTHOUGH
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA...A FEW LED NOTABLY
BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REMAIN MUCH QUICKER WITH AN OPEN TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST A DAY AHEAD OF THE OTHER CAMP.
ALTHOUGH WE DONT HAVE TREMENDOUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME...OUR
LEAN IS TOWARDS THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH DELAYS AN OUTFLOW
ENHANCED COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED
WEDNESDAY A BIT DRIER AND WARMER WHILE FAVORING SHOWER MENTION FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. ALSO EXTENDED LOW THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. RETAINED DRY AND WARMER TREND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  67  92  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  69  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  70  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  69  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   95  71  94  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  71  95  69  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    102  74 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  73  98  71  98 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT    101  75 100  73 100 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
614
FXUS64 KLUB 241119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF EITHER
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITY IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
KINEMATIC PROFILES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WHEN NO CONVECTION
WAS OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHED WELL BACK WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH. FURTHERMORE...HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LESS HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE MIXING AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITIES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSE TO OUR
WESTERN BORDER. EARLIER RUNS INDICATED A WAVE EDGING NEAR ENOUGH TO
OUR BORDER MONDAY FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM
HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. STILL...WE ADDED LOW MENTION MONDAY
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LARGEST ISSUE THIS FORECAST REMAINS
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ALSO THE MONSOON FLOW LIKELY BENDING THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEMS START EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ALTHOUGH
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA...A FEW LED NOTABLY
BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REMAIN MUCH QUICKER WITH AN OPEN TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST A DAY AHEAD OF THE OTHER CAMP.
ALTHOUGH WE DONT HAVE TREMENDOUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME...OUR
LEAN IS TOWARDS THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH DELAYS AN OUTFLOW
ENHANCED COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED
WEDNESDAY A BIT DRIER AND WARMER WHILE FAVORING SHOWER MENTION FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. ALSO EXTENDED LOW THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. RETAINED DRY AND WARMER TREND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  67  92  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  69  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  70  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  69  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   95  71  94  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  71  95  69  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    102  74 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  73  98  71  98 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT    101  75 100  73 100 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
125
FXUS64 KLUB 240912
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
KINEMATIC PROFILES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WHEN NO CONVECTION
WAS OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHED WELL BACK WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH. FURTHERMORE...HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LESS HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE MIXING AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITIES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSE TO OUR
WESTERN BORDER. EARLIER RUNS INDICATED A WAVE EDGING NEAR ENOUGH TO
OUR BORDER MONDAY FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM
HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. STILL...WE ADDED LOW MENTION MONDAY
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LARGEST ISSUE THIS FORECAST REMAINS
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ALSO THE MONSOON FLOW LIKELY BENDING THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEMS START EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ALTHOUGH
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA...A FEW LED NOTABLY
BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REMAIN MUCH QUICKER WITH AN OPEN TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST A DAY AHEAD OF THE OTHER CAMP.
ALTHOUGH WE DONT HAVE TREMENDOUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME...OUR
LEAN IS TOWARDS THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH DELAYS AN OUTFLOW
ENHANCED COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED
WEDNESDAY A BIT DRIER AND WARMER WHILE FAVORING SHOWER MENTION FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. ALSO EXTENDED LOW THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. RETAINED DRY AND WARMER TREND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  67  92  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  69  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  70  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  69  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   95  71  94  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  71  95  69  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    102  74 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  73  98  71  98 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT    101  75 100  73 100 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
924
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITIES OF BOTH TERMINALS LATE
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE ABSENCE
OF T-STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A REMOTE CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 20 HOURS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING WAS FOUND SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A SHEARED TROUGH. WHAT SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST ARE LARGELY NONDESCRIPT IN SWLY FLOW WITH ONLY
MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE POOLING APPARENT IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES. SOME TURKEY TOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...
HOWEVER DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THESE AGITATED CU
IN CHECK. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN HAMPERED A BIT BY
THICKER CLOUDS AT TIMES WHICH IN TURN HAVE LIMITED DEEPER BDRY LAYER
MIXING NECESSARY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE
FEW HOURS AHEAD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECAYING UPPER TROUGH...
BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE NOW EVEN LESS...SO PRECIP
MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

WHAT MEAGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SCOURED
OUT FURTHER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND RIDS US OF THE RECENT WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. THE SURFACE
TROUGH MEANWHILE WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LEAVING LITTLE IF
ANY FOCUS FOR LL CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
DIABATIC HEATING ALONE IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TOO HARD PRESSED FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER END OF THE MOS
SPECTRUM FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS.

LONG TERM...
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN BORDER LATE
SUNDAY BUT THE MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARD LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SYNOPTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS RUNS DUE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST...THE GFS EXTENDS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN
MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN BORDER AS SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL AND BECOME MORE
SEASONAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  69  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  94  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  96  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71 102  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          69  99  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     71 101  74  99  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
281
FXUS64 KLUB 232330
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A REMOTE CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 20 HOURS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING WAS FOUND SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A SHEARED TROUGH. WHAT SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST ARE LARGELY NONDESCRIPT IN SWLY FLOW WITH ONLY
MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE POOLING APPARENT IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES. SOME TURKEY TOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...
HOWEVER DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THESE AGITATED CU
IN CHECK. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN HAMPERED A BIT BY
THICKER CLOUDS AT TIMES WHICH IN TURN HAVE LIMITED DEEPER BDRY LAYER
MIXING NECESSARY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE
FEW HOURS AHEAD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECAYING UPPER TROUGH...
BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE NOW EVEN LESS...SO PRECIP
MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

WHAT MEAGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SCOURED
OUT FURTHER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND RIDS US OF THE RECENT WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. THE SURFACE
TROUGH MEANWHILE WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LEAVING LITTLE IF
ANY FOCUS FOR LL CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
DIABATIC HEATING ALONE IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TOO HARD PRESSED FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER END OF THE MOS
SPECTRUM FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS.

LONG TERM...
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN BORDER LATE
SUNDAY BUT THE MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARD LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SYNOPTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS RUNS DUE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST...THE GFS EXTENDS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN
MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN BORDER AS SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL AND BECOME MORE
SEASONAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  69  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  94  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  96  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71 102  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          69  99  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     71 101  74  99  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
404
FXUS64 KLUB 232053
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING WAS FOUND SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A SHEARED TROUGH. WHAT SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST ARE LARGELY NONDESCRIPT IN SWLY FLOW WITH ONLY
MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE POOLING APPARENT IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES. SOME TURKEY TOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...
HOWEVER DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THESE AGITATED CU
IN CHECK. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN HAMPERED A BIT BY
THICKER CLOUDS AT TIMES WHICH IN TURN HAVE LIMITED DEEPER BDRY LAYER
MIXING NECESSARY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE
FEW HOURS AHEAD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECAYING UPPER TROUGH...
BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE NOW EVEN LESS...SO PRECIP
MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

WHAT MEAGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SCOURED
OUT FURTHER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND RIDS US OF THE RECENT WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. THE SURFACE
TROUGH MEANWHILE WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LEAVING LITTLE IF
ANY FOCUS FOR LL CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
DIABATIC HEATING ALONE IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TOO HARD PRESSED FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER END OF THE MOS
SPECTRUM FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN BORDER LATE
SUNDAY BUT THE MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARD LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SYNOPTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS RUNS DUE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST...THE GFS EXTENDS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN
MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN BORDER AS SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL AND BECOME MORE
SEASONAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  69  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  94  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  96  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71 102  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          69  99  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     71 101  74  99  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/55
117
FXUS64 KLUB 231726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR WITH SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. VERY SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVNG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
AREA...BUT CHANCES THESE IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL ARE TOO SLIM FOR
A TAF MENTION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TRAILING VORTICITY FROM YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED TODAY LEADING TO
LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OUT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EVIDENCED BY LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AND SHUNTS THE MOIST
FLOW BACK TO THE WEST. RIDGE DOMINATION AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A NEW MONSOONAL PLUME BILLOWING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES COULD PRESS
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TIER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND DYNAMIC LIFT SEEM DESTINED FOR THESE AREAS. BUT THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD DRAG BACK OVER OUR AREA BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. TRENDS TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION AS
WELL AS SLOWER SURFACE FRONT NOTED THIS RUN...BUT MIGHT STILL GIVE
A WINDOW FOR THUNDER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD DELAY THESE CHANCES
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY BUT WE WILL NOT BROAD-BRUSH THAT FAR YET. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE QUITE COOL...SO SHOULD
FRONT MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WE COULD SEE NOTABLE COOLING AS
WELL AND HAVE FAVORED MORE DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO RENEWED WARMING AND DRYING OUR
AREA AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  64  92  65  93 /  20  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  67  94  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     94  66  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       95  69  96  69  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  67  94  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    95  68  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
852
FXUS64 KLUB 231113
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING KLBB. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES OF
ANY THUNDER AFFECTING KLBB IS MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TRAILING VORTICITY FROM YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED TODAY LEADING TO
LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OUT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EVIDENCED BY LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AND SHUNTS THE MOIST
FLOW BACK TO THE WEST. RIDGE DOMINATION AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A NEW MONSOONAL PLUME BILLOWING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES COULD PRESS
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TIER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND DYNAMIC LIFT SEEM DESTINED FOR THESE AREAS. BUT THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD DRAG BACK OVER OUR AREA BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. TRENDS TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION AS
WELL AS SLOWER SURFACE FRONT NOTED THIS RUN...BUT MIGHT STILL GIVE
A WINDOW FOR THUNDER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD DELAY THESE CHANCES
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY BUT WE WILL NOT BROAD-BRUSH THAT FAR YET. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE QUITE COOL...SO SHOULD
FRONT MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WE COULD SEE NOTABLE COOLING AS
WELL AND HAVE FAVORED MORE DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO RENEWED WARMING AND DRYING OUR
AREA AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  64  92  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
TULIA         94  67  94  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     94  66  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       95  69  96  69  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  67  94  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    95  68  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
014
FXUS64 KLUB 230938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TRAILING VORTICITY FROM YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED TODAY LEADING TO
LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OUT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EVIDENCED BY LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A THINNING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AND SHUNTS THE MOIST
FLOW BACK TO THE WEST. RIDGE DOMINATION AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A NEW MONSOONAL PLUME BILLOWING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES COULD PRESS
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TIER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND DYNAMIC LIFT SEEM DESTINED FOR THESE AREAS. BUT THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD DRAG BACK OVER OUR AREA BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. TRENDS TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION AS
WELL AS SLOWER SURFACE FRONT NOTED THIS RUN...BUT MIGHT STILL GIVE
A WINDOW FOR THUNDER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD DELAY THESE CHANCES
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY BUT WE WILL NOT BROAD-BRUSH THAT FAR YET. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE QUITE COOL...SO SHOULD
FRONT MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WE COULD SEE NOTABLE COOLING AS
WELL AND HAVE FAVORED MORE DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO RENEWED WARMING AND DRYING OUR
AREA AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  64  92  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
TULIA         94  67  94  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     94  66  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  70  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  67  94  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    95  68  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
912
FXUS64 KLUB 230443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY MOVING VERY FAR EASTWARD...REMAINING
DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH KLBB AND WILL BRING A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH IT...BUT LITTLE ELSE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A SHOWER LATE TONIGHT AT KLBB...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIM CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KLBB AND/OR KCDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF A
DIRECT IMPACT ARE LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS /AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NEAR CLOVIS NORTHEAST TO A SURFACE LOW AROUND
GUYMON. LL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN TWO SPOTS SO FAR...ONE
NEAR HEREFORD WITH ANOTHER SOUTH OF CLOVIS. TSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PREVALENT NEAR I-40...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INITIATING FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD RAMP UP BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/FILLING LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SPREADS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE TX-NM BORDER ALONG WITH ENHANCED
SWLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
MOVING WITH MORE ZEST THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT NARROW SWATHS OF
HEAVY RAIN REMAIN A LEGITIMATE THREAT NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THE
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR LIES PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF ASCENT. ON A
RELATED NOTE...PRECIP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACE GREAT DIFFICULTY IN
PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD THE I-27 AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS...SO PRECIP
LOOKS TO DWINDLE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z.

DESPITE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DOES
RETAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE DUE TO CONTINUED SHEARING AND SOURCE DISRUPTIONS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING LOOK
ON PAR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTN TSTORMS...THIS
TIME PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER EAST FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE SERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME...ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ARE FAIR GAME FOR THESE TSTORMS CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DISPLACED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST
ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIVE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  IT IS
THE TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO WHICH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY WILL BE
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY MORE OR LESS MAKING IT ACROSS OUR PART OF THE
WORLD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LARGELY
BE THE RULE MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.  THEREAFTER...STORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AT LEAST NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE PERHAPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.  HAVE THUS GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY DEMONSTRATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
THOUGH THE SUSPICION IS THAT THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN NWP.
 THEREAFTER...THE DETAILS OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOME TOO
NEBULOUS TO GIVE MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMENT THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LATE
SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF MONSOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  62  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
TULIA         69  94  66  93  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  94  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  94  65  93  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  94  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  96  67  98  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  98  71 100  71 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
032
FXUS64 KLUB 222337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS IN PLACE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY EDGE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF KLBB AND WELL
WEST OF KCDS. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROSPECTS OF A DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACT ARE LOW. HENCE...WE HAVE KEPT THE TAFS STORM FREE. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NEAR CLOVIS NORTHEAST TO A SURFACE LOW AROUND
GUYMON. LL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN TWO SPOTS SO FAR...ONE
NEAR HEREFORD WITH ANOTHER SOUTH OF CLOVIS. TSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PREVALENT NEAR I-40...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INITIATING FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD RAMP UP BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/FILLING LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SPREADS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE TX-NM BORDER ALONG WITH ENHANCED
SWLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
MOVING WITH MORE ZEST THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT NARROW SWATHS OF
HEAVY RAIN REMAIN A LEGITIMATE THREAT NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THE
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR LIES PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF ASCENT. ON A
RELATED NOTE...PRECIP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACE GREAT DIFFICULTY IN
PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD THE I-27 AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS...SO PRECIP
LOOKS TO DWINDLE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z.

DESPITE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DOES
RETAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE DUE TO CONTINUED SHEARING AND SOURCE DISRUPTIONS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING LOOK
ON PAR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTN TSTORMS...THIS
TIME PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER EAST FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE SERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME...ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ARE FAIR GAME FOR THESE TSTORMS CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DISPLACED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST
ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIVE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  IT IS
THE TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO WHICH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY WILL BE
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY MORE OR LESS MAKING IT ACROSS OUR PART OF THE
WORLD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LARGELY
BE THE RULE MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.  THEREAFTER...STORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AT LEAST NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE PERHAPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.  HAVE THUS GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY DEMONSTRATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
THOUGH THE SUSPICION IS THAT THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN NWP.
 THEREAFTER...THE DETAILS OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOME TOO
NEBULOUS TO GIVE MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMENT THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LATE
SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF MONSOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  62  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
TULIA         69  94  66  93  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  94  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  94  65  93  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  94  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  96  67  98  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  98  71 100  71 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
160
FXUS64 KLUB 222043
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NEAR CLOVIS NORTHEAST TO A SURFACE LOW AROUND
GUYMON. LL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN TWO SPOTS SO FAR...ONE
NEAR HEREFORD WITH ANOTHER SOUTH OF CLOVIS. TSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PREVALENT NEAR I-40...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INITIATING FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD RAMP UP BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/FILLING LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SPREADS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE TX-NM BORDER ALONG WITH ENHANCED
SWLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
MOVING WITH MORE ZEST THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT NARROW SWATHS OF
HEAVY RAIN REMAIN A LEGITIMATE THREAT NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THE
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR LIES PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF ASCENT. ON A
RELATED NOTE...PRECIP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACE GREAT DIFFICULTY IN
PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD THE I-27 AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS...SO PRECIP
LOOKS TO DWINDLE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z.

DESPITE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DOES
RETAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE DUE TO CONTINUED SHEARING AND SOURCE DISRUPTIONS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING LOOK
ON PAR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTN TSTORMS...THIS
TIME PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER EAST FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE SERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME...ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ARE FAIR GAME FOR THESE TSTORMS CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DISPLACED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST
ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIVE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  IT IS
THE TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO WHICH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY WILL BE
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY MORE OR LESS MAKING IT ACROSS OUR PART OF THE
WORLD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LARGELY
BE THE RULE MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.  THEREAFTER...STORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AT LEAST NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE PERHAPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.  HAVE THUS GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY DEMONSTRATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
THOUGH THE SUSPICION IS THAT THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN NWP.
 THEREAFTER...THE DETAILS OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOME TOO
NEBULOUS TO GIVE MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMENT THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LATE
SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF MONSOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  62  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
TULIA         69  94  66  93  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  94  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  94  65  93  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  94  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  96  67  98  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  98  71 100  71 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26
585
FXUS64 KLUB 221758 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO
RESTRICT PRECIP MENTION TO OUR WEST AND NWRN COUNTIES. 17Z SURFACE
OBS INDICATE LL CONVERGENCE IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS IN PARMER AND
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST VIS SATELLITE
SHOWS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CU/MDT CU NEAR FRIONA IN AN AREA OF
DIMINISHING CINH AND MODEST SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THIS AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF WEAK DEFORMATION
ALOFT WHICH WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS AT 250MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING...THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW CU TO REACH THEIR
LFC/S AND MATURE INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PERHAPS AS
SOON AS 19Z. OTHERWISE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS
TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING NEAR THE NM BORDER AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW EXITING THE GRAND CANYON.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. ISO-SCT TSRA ARE MOST LIKELY W-NW OF LBB
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP THESE
OUTSIDE THE LBB AND CDS AIRSPACES. S-SWLY WINDS TO REMAIN 10-15
KNOTS WITH SOME AFTN GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  50  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  10  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/26/93
304
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
941
FXUS64 KLUB 220921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
942
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
490
FXUS64 KLUB 212345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT KLBB WILL SEE ANY MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST ATTM. HENCE...WE
HAVE KEPT KLBB CONVECTION FREE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER
TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE IMPACTED IS UNCLEAR. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
434
FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
762
FXUS64 KLUB 211717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CWA REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY THINNING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME. MID-LVL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST THAN
YESTERDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WRN
SPLNS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER ODDS AT KLBB. AMENDMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
INTERFERE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD. AFTER THE STANDARD PRE-DAWN LULL...BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         67  92  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  90  63  87  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     74  98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
SPUR          68  95  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  98  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
266
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
807
FXUS64 KLUB 210901
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  66  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
155
FXUS64 KLUB 210440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED /WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS/ BUT HAVE RECENTLY RELENTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW LINGERING BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
RELATIVELY MOIST WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY
COULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AT KLBB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BRING THE RISK OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF A
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY
TO PUSH SCATTERED MENTION EWD TO THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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