Area Forecast Discussion
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075
FXUS64 KLUB 122041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WAS NOT QUITE AS SHARP AS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG EITHER. WINDS
WERE BACKING JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WAS OBSERVED
WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS EXTENDING OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DONE
LITTLE TO CURB SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONGER CAP TODAY AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT ERODING UNTIL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 23-00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY BE ALL QUIET
UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO ASSIST WITH
CAPPING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS NOT MOVING IN
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SINCE WE WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MOIST LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO COUPLE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CREATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD
TRAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN CREATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN WORKED
OVER AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT A RAPID TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
ALREADY TRYING TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WANTS TO WRAP UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG DRY PUNCH
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOW AND KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. REGARDLESS...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  53  41  62 /  70  80  50  10
TULIA         53  56  43  63 /  80  80  60  30
PLAINVIEW     54  56  44  64 /  80  80  60  30
LEVELLAND     54  58  44  66 /  80  80  60  10
LUBBOCK       55  59  46  66 /  80  80  60  20
DENVER CITY   52  61  45  67 /  80  80  50  10
BROWNFIELD    54  61  46  67 /  80  80  60  10
CHILDRESS     59  63  49  66 /  80  80  60  40
SPUR          58  62  48  65 /  70  80  70  30
ASPERMONT     60  67  52  68 /  70  80  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14

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