Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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906
FXUS64 KLUB 160825
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  64  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
TULIA         92  66  95  65  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     91  66  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  65  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  95  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  94  65  94 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  66  95  66  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  72 100  71  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          95  68  95  67  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72  98  70  99 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/99

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