Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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356
FXUS64 KLUB 311138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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