Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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723
FXUS64 KLUB 131135
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF SCT LOW CLOUDS WAS EXITING LBB AT 11Z AHEAD OF
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER CDS WILL RETAIN MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL -SHRA
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL DRIER NORTH WINDS PUSH CIGS TO VFR BY
MID MORNING.

STRONG NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 KNOTS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. AN AWW REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR LBB UNTIL 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE STILL DEEPENING OVER
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING COMPLETE WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD ON ITS
WESTERN FLANK. AS A TESTAMENT TO THIS LOW/S STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF
DYNAMIC COOLING...AMA/S 88D HAS SHOWN SNOW LEVELS EDGING BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AT TIMES. CYCLONES RARELY ACCELERATE DURING SUCH
DEEPENING...SO THIS DELAYED DEPARTURE REQUIRED THAT PRECIP BE
EXTENDED THRU AT LEAST 15Z ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS CYCLONE HAS ALREADY SHOWN ITS TEETH IN THE FORM OF STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AT SOME WEST TX
MESONET STATIONS. REESE SODAR HAS SAMPLED 50 KNOTS AT JUST 500
FEET WITH 60 KNOTS AT 2K FEET PER THE LBB VWP. FORTUNATELY...THIS
BELT OF INTENSE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE EXITING EAST OF THE CWA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THEREBY SPARING US FROM ANYTHING MORE THAN
AN ADVISORY WIND EVENT. ALSO...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NERN COUNTIES SHOULD THWART DEEPER
MIXING INTO THIS ENERGIZED WIND LAYER ALOFT. FOR SIMPLICITY...THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH 4 PM EVEN THOUGH WINDS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 MPH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT FROM BEFORE GIVEN THE SLOWER
CYCLONE...BUT RAPID CLEARING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
SPELLS A GOOD RECIPE FOR QUICK WARMING...SO WE WON/T UNDERCUT
MOS VERY MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A DIFFERENT STORY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SETS UP NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER COMPLETE WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
AND CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES. THIS SETUP TENDS TO OFFER THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AT LBB AS LIGHT NW WINDS ENHANCE
COLD AIR DRAINAGE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE YELLOW HOUSE DRAW...SO
WE/LL GLADLY UNDERCUT MOS LOWS AND FAVOR HIGH 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK. EVEN WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE RH VALUES
OVERNIGHT...SOME OF OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS MULESHOE MAY
SEE A TOUCH OF LIGHT FROST ON THE PUMPKIN BY TUE MORNING GIVEN
RESIDUAL TOPSOIL MOISTURE AND RECENT LIGHT PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY MOVES EAST. LIGHT WIND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A SECOND SURGE ON
FRIDAY. ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES
OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS
TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANY LIFT PROVIDED COULD HELP SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO FORM. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE
ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
WHICH STALLS A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MID WEEK
BEFORE COOLING DOWN A BIT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN SORT
OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  37  73  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  74  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     64  40  74  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     65  38  74  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  39  74  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  38  74  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  40  75  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  44  77  47  82 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPUR          69  42  76  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  44  76  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

93/14/93

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