Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

667
FXUS64 KLUB 010442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WEST
TEXAS OVERIGHT WITH ADDED MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FRI.
THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THUS
TAFS REMAIN VFR FOR NEXT 24HRS WITH WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING ERLY ON FRI WITH SPEEDS <10KT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET AND COOL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS COOL AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY WHEN RIDGE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD. FOR TONIGHT...A LOOK WEST SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NM AS WELL AS THE
SACRAMENTOS OF SRN NM. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE AIR THERE MAKING
FOR A SLOW START RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. FLOW ALOFT ABOUT 20 KTS
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN MORE STABLE
AIR WITH LOW LEVEL DEW POINT MINIMA AND VERY WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS
FAR ERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE. WOULD EXPECT LITTLE ORGANIZATION AS
THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAMPER THEIR LONGEVITY
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE MOVING INTO. SO...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING MAKING IT INTO THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT...CHANCES
LOOK VERY SLIM AND WILL PULL MENTION FROM THE FCST.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SE BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE WITH NO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION INDICATED...SO TEMPS NEAR TO JUST A TOUCH
ABOVE TODAY. WRFNAM-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY LOOKS FAR TOO
WARM WITH THE GFS-BASED AVNMOS LOOKING BETTER...BUT EVEN THEN A
TOUCH TOO WARM. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA INTO ERN NM...BUT APPEARS THAT INITIATION
ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE LINE. SO ANOTHER COOL AND FAIR
DAY EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENINGS. ANY CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE MINIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WITH WEST TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
SURFACE RIDGING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY THAN
COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN TURN DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVERHEAD. AS THIS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE THAT TERRIBLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.

AROUND MIDWEEK...MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN US AND IS THUS LESS BULLISH WITH
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH HELP HERE AS
THE SPREAD INDICATES EITHER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OR SLOWER
PATTERN AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY ALSO SPUR SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  80  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         57  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  81  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  83  63  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  63  83  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  86  61  83  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  86  63  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  84  65  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          63  84  64  85  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  86  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.