Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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517
FXUS64 KLUB 241122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING EAST.
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY MID MORNING WITH GENERAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS WITH
VFR DOMINATING OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. MODEST 6 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 4-6 MB WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES AND WILL LEAD TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE TO 20 MPH FROM
MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. BACK WEST...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...LEADING TO LOW END SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AGAIN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TODAYS WEAK FRONT SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY ON THE
CAP-ROCK...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. EASTERN ZONES WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS
AREA. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING BACK OVER AND PROBABLY AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS SPREADING
OVER DURING THE NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DELIVER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS BY ON THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE FLEETING. THERE WILL BE VERY BRIEF LIFT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY DRY. CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED MUCH FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

THE MAIN IMPACT AND POINT OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...DIFFERENCES
THEN AMPLIFY. A PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING ANOTHER COLD PUNCH
ON FRIDAY HAS BACKED OFF NOW. COLDER AIR IS NOW SHOWN TO STRUGGLE
IN MAKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THIS PART OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RESEMBLANCE OF THESE PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VERY WIDE TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF COLDER AIR DIMINISHING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SHOW THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALTHOUGH JUST
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF THUNDER AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGEST BREEZES TODAY NORTHEAST ZONES WILL TEAM WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CONCERN WOULD
BE THIS AREA...THE NORTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LOW END BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  73  31 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         79  44  75  35 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     80  45  77  35 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     82  46  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  48  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  48  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  48  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  52  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          86  52  85  41 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  54  88  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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