Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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231
FXUS64 KLUB 160453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY 15-16Z THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND PROTRUDING RIDGE WILL FLATTEN NEXT
24 HOURS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL MODIFY UL FLOW TO BE ZONAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH
KICKS EASTWARD INTO KS AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT WARMER TONIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY WARM THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

LONG TERM...
A DECAYING CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS
RESULTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE PLAINS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SENDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

A CLOSED LOW THEN DIVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TEXAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
ANYWAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ITS TRACK AND
ITS QPF DEPICTION IS SUSPECT GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH.
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES...CMC...AND LATEST
NAEFS RUN. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT FOR MONDAY IS TRENDING WEAKER
IN ALL MODELS AND IS NOW STOPPING SHORT OF THE REGION IN THE GFS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER AND WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH
IN THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  48  82  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  49  86  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  49  88  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  88  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  49  88  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  44  88  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  47  89  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  51  90  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  48  92  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  49  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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