Area Forecast Discussion
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738
FXUS64 KLUB 011120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO FOG HAS CAUSED VIS TO DROP TO VFR AT KLBB AND
IFR AT KCDS. CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED ABOVE 6SM AT KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...LIFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS...IFR DECKS AT KLBB AND
MVFR DECKS AT KPVW. WILL EXPECT BOTH VIS AND DECKS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH SUSTAINED AT 18-19 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THEREAFTER...NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 12 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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