Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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985
FXUS64 KLUB 281754 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFD/ FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS
IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS...THOUGH THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX
AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFD/ THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...HUMIDITIES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND 20 FOOT WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WILL WORK TOGETHER TO CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY EASE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET WHEN WINDS DECREASE...TEMPERATURES FALL AND HUMIDITIES
CLIMB. THE RFD...UPDATED FWF AND UPDATED PFW PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLAT RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR NEXT FRONT MENTIONED IN THE LONG TERM...MOVES ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. NET RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW ALOFT
AND AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEADING TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH FULL INSOLATION THROUGHOUT A DRY
TROPOSPHERE WILL CRANK THICKNESS VALUES TO AROUND THE 570
DECAMETER MARK...SPELLING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-UPPER TEENS...BUT
SHALLOW MIXING UNDERNEATH AN H90-H85 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE 20 FOOT LEVEL THUS
KEEPING CONDITIONS AT BAY.

LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER LOWS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...REMAINING IN THE
MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 40S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE HOVERING ACROSS SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MAY MAKE SOME HEADWAY
TOWARD WEST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO HELP
BACK WINDS ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

LONG TERM...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK THOUGH WE DO HAVE
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BEING TOTALLY CALM.
SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH.  THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.  A
SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES AGAIN TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE MILDLY BREEZY WESTERLIES EACH
AFTERNOON WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING IN SUNDAY EVENING.
WE MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTN AND
PERHAPS AGAIN SUNDAY THOUGH ERC VALUES REMAIN FAR FROM
IMPRESSIVE. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP COOL-DOWN FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK. INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
FRONT WILL MAKE IT IN. EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  77  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         75  39  76  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     74  39  77  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  37  77  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       75  38  77  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  38  73  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  37  74  39  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     75  43  78  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  40  74  39  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  44  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/16/23

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