Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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109
FXUS64 KLUB 271331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT...THUS A
RESURGENCE TO THE ONGOING SCATTERED SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER
PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
POPS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS TREND PERSISTS INTO LATE MORNING /SINCE IT
EXPIRES AT 15Z/...BUT WILL LET THE LATER SHIFT SEE IF THAT IS
INDEED WARRANTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VIS AND CLOUD DECKS KEEP BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
CRITERIA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. CURRENT
READINGS ARE VFR VIS DUE TO SNOW AT KLBB...MVFR VIS AT KPVW AND
-SN IS NOT AFFECTED KCDS AT THIS TIME THUS VFR VIS PREVAILED
/THOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT A REPRIEVE AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY/. VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB WHILE IFR DECKS
WERE OCCURRING AT KPVW. THESE CHANGES IN CRITERIA ARE LIKELY DUE
TO INTERMITTENT PASSES OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...OR LACK THEREOF WHEN IT COMES TO KCDS. THIS CATEGORY BOUNCING
AROUND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE -SN COMMENCE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING UP TO THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAVE PERFORMED POOR DUE TO AN OVER-RELIANCE IN
INDICATING A VERY GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE AS 09Z RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WINTRY PRECIP IS COURTESY OF
ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN UA TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ATTM AND
IS LIKELY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN THERE...THOUGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WERE NOTED MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...COINCIDING
WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THUS FAR...SNOWFALL HAS ONLY
COLLECTED ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN ROADWAYS ARE STILL A BIT TOO WARM.
HOWEVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...WE COULD SEE A
SOME COLLECT ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL APPEARS ADEQUATE ATTM. VIS HAS GONE UP AND DOWN AT
KLBB AND KPVW /DOWN TO 1 AND 2 1/2 MILES RESPECTIVELY AT ONE
POINT/ ...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL THE WINTRY PRECIP. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
AS IT WILL SHIFT ESE TO ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN /AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES/ BY THE AFTN.
WANING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BY EARLY-MID MORNING WILL
LEAD TO THE END OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS. DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONT THAT WILL USHER THAT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH FCST AREA MONDAY BUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING UNTIL
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH AN EXPECTED NARROW DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY
MID LEVELS. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SNOW CHANCES THAT PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMS
TO HAVE WIDENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THAT LEAVES THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT UNKNOWNS INTO FRIDAY
THAT WOULD AFFECT BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...DEPENDING MOSTLY ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PHASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE MID LEVEL
TEMPS TO OR ABOVE THE FREEZING. CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE ATTM WITH THE EVENT STILL A WAYS OUT...IE SNOW AND RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  15  47  22  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  17  47  23  45 /  60   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  19  49  25  48 /  80   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  21  50  28  50 /  80   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  21  49  28  49 /  80   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  23  47  28  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  22  50  28  49 /  40   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  25  49  29  53 /  60   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  26  50  31  55 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-028>031-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

29

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