Area Forecast Discussion
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498
FXUS64 KLUB 150937
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WIND TO WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY WAS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY WELL OUT OF TOWN...SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
OF 08Z. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TODAY /THOUGH NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/...WHILE LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VISIT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL COOL
MID-DECEMBER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FOR NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK
AROUND MULESHOE TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
BEFORE THEN...FULL INSOLATION WILL SECURE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A COOL AND QUIET TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LARGER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A LLJ AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING
STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH EDGES INTO THE
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES TO BE HASHED
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE TRENDS INDICATE A MORE CLOSED...AND
SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH COULD END UP BEING BETTER FOR OUR PRECIP
CHANCES. THE CURRENT MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES
COULD BE HIGHEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WHILE IN THE GFS SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-FRI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.

A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES START TO RAMP
UP POPS ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME
TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  21  51  28  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         53  24  51  29  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  24  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     56  25  52  33  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  27  52  34  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   58  27  52  33  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    58  27  52  34  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  29  51  33  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          60  29  52  36  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     61  30  52  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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