Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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712
FXUS64 KLUB 211742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING. MVFR CLOUD DECKS STUBBORNLY AFFECTING KCDS IS SLOWLY
DETERIORATING AND WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AND THUS RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME
A BIT BREEZY /16-18 KTS/ BY TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS WILL
MAKE A RETURN BUT THIS TIME AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES BY
TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF -PLFZRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AND -RASN AT KCDS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 AT THIS TIME...AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY IN IN STORE FOR THE CWA...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. A
COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS NOW MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AS OF 09Z. POST-FRONTAL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
EASING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A BATCH OF STRATUS
CLOUDS WAS ALSO ROAMING LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THIS WILL SECURE
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THOUGH THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY EEK OUT A FEW LOWER 60S.

THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A LARGE...COLD SURFACE
HIGH INVADES MUCH OF THE CENTER PART OF THE CONTINENT...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOCALLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUALLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE...WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/LIFT AND BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. STILL...A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TAKING THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LIFT/SATURATION AND RATE OF COOLING OF THE LOW-
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
THE SITUATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A
WINTRY MESS. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S MAY BREAK RECORDS FOR THE COOLEST HIGHS FOR THE
DATES. LOWS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS
BUT WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL MAKE IT FEEL BITTERLY COLD.

PRECIP IS WHERE THE MESSY PART COMES IN. WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH REDUCE CONFIDENCE. IN
GENERAL...WE EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD AIR MASS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF DEEP SATURATION THE PRECIP COULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN JUST SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
PERIODS OF BETTER LIFT AND PRECIP RATES...WHILE SUPPORTING A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND INTO
THE NE ZONES. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN
FROM THE SW TO PROVIDE DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES. DURING THIS PERIOD WE
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLEET
AND SNOW...WHILE THE LINGERING WARM NOSE MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
PERHAPS SRN SPLNS. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY
SEE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
REASONABLE FROM THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WHERE OUR NRN
ZONES COULD SEE MORE SNOW...PERHAPS UP INTO THE 4+ INCH
RANGE...WHILE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-SE ZONES ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
APPROACH A QUARTER INCH...SO WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM WARNINGS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE JUST QUESTION YET. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WITH AREA ROADS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO
BECOME ICY AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS...POSSIBLY COINCIDING WITH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM...WE STILL EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING ANY WARMER. LATE IN THE WEEK...AN AMPLIFYING LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PROGGED TO COME INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD TO OUR WEST...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR SO...AND COULD STAY WITH US FOR A WHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  27  29  13 /   0  20  50  60
TULIA         53  27  28  13 /   0  20  50  60
PLAINVIEW     55  29  31  16 /   0  20  50  60
LEVELLAND     59  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  33  16 /   0  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  33  37  19 /   0  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    61  31  35  18 /   0  10  50  60
CHILDRESS     56  30  31  16 /   0  20  40  60
SPUR          58  32  34  17 /   0  10  50  60
ASPERMONT     59  34  36  19 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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